{"id":1122,"date":"2026-06-10T12:20:12","date_gmt":"2026-06-10T12:20:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=1122"},"modified":"2026-06-10T12:20:12","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T12:20:12","slug":"the-circulatory-system-isnt-working-goldman-on-whats-really-wrong-with-private-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=1122","title":{"rendered":"\u2018The circulatory system isn\u2019t working.\u2019 Goldman on what\u2019s really wrong with private markets"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Hold periods for buyout-backed companies have stretched to nearly seven years, up from five-and-a-half a decade ago. Distributions to investors, the lifeblood of the entire ecosystem, have fallen far below the historical norm of 15%-20%. The average venture-backed company now takes 14 years to go public. And retail investors who piled into private credit vehicles \u2014 at a 60% annualized rate for five consecutive years \u2014 recently found themselves unable to withdraw their money when they asked.<\/p>\n

Read more A \u2018MAGA Warrior\u2019 Texas ag chief is publicly blasting the USDA over a flesh-eating pest threatening America\u2019s beef supply<\/a><\/p>\n

By any measure, something has changed. The question is how serious it is.<\/p>\n

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Goldman Sachs has an answer \u2014 and it\u2019s more candid than you might expect from a firm with billions at stake in the outcome.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe circulatory system is not working,\u201d said Michael Brandmeyer, global head and CIO of the External Investing Group at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, on an episode of the bank\u2019s Exchanges<\/em> podcast. \u201cAnd so, that\u2019s making fundraising harder. It\u2019s driving consolidation. It\u2019s driving a lot of change in the industry.\u201d<\/p>\n

But Goldman\u2019s verdict stops well short of crisis. And in a market where the prevailing press narrative has grown increasingly alarmed about private credit stress, the firm\u2019s public positioning is notable \u2014 and worth scrutinizing.<\/p>\n

How the gears got stuck<\/h2>\n

To understand the current logjam, you have to go back to 2022.<\/p>\n

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Between the Global Financial Crisis and the Fed\u2019s rate-hiking cycle, private markets experienced what Brandmeyer describes as \u201ca period of unprecedented growth\u201d \u2014 a sixfold expansion over roughly 12 years. Cheap money, compressed volatility, and a sustained hunt for yield made alternatives an easy sell, and capital poured in. <\/p>\n

Then the Fed raised rates by roughly 500 basis points, and \u201ceverything came to a halt.\u201d<\/p>\n

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The problem wasn\u2019t just that financing got more expensive. Private equity portfolios \u2014 leveraged by design, typically structured as one part equity to one part debt \u2014 were suddenly worth less, but the marks were slow to reflect that. With sellers holding out for pre-rate-hike valuations and buyers unwilling to pay them, deal flow essentially froze. North American buyout holding periods have climbed to <\/i>around seven years<\/span>, per Bain\u2019s 2026 Global Private Equity Report.<\/p>\n

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\u201cWe think what\u2019s happening is things are really going to return to historical norms,\u201d said Pete Lyon, Goldman\u2019s global co-head of Capital Solutions. \u201cBut it\u2019s going to take some time.\u201d<\/p>\n

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The credit debate Goldman is wading into<\/h2>\n

Nowhere is the tension between Goldman\u2019s reassuring framing and the broader market reality more pronounced than in private credit.<\/p>\n

Lyon pushed back hard on what he called a \u201cconflation in the press between what is actually a systemic credit problem and what is not.\u201d His read: current default rates are nowhere near the 10%-plus levels seen during the GFC \u2014 and even under severe stress, total losses would amount to perhaps 5%, compared to the 50%-plus peak-to-trough drawdown in public equity markets during the financial crisis.<\/p>\n

But independent data tells a more complicated story. Fitch Ratings\u2019 U.S. Private Credit Default Rate \u2014 which tracks distressed exchanges and payment-in-kind conversions alongside outright defaults \u2014 climbed from 5.8% in January 2026 to 7.0% by April.<\/em> Proskauer\u2019s Private Credit Default Index, which monitors nearly 700 loans totaling $189 billion, recorded a 2.73% default rate in Q1 2026, up from 1.84% a year prior.<\/p>\n

Goldman acknowledged pockets of stress \u2014 particularly in software-centric companies and those over-levered coming out of the 2021\u201322 LBO boom \u2014 but drew a firm line at calling it a systemic credit crisis. The liquidity crunch in retail vehicles, Lyon argued, reflected investor misunderstanding rather than a flaw in the asset class itself.<\/p>\n

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\u201cWe\u2019re in the middle of a market structure change,\u201d Lyon said. \u201cWe have a situation here in alternatives where market structures are evolving very quickly.\u201d At the same time, he made the distinction that historical averages in terms of defaults and underperformance make clear that we\u2019re nowhere close to those averages. The retail liquidity squeeze, he argued, was \u201cbroadly an education point\u201d where investors simply hadn\u2019t understood that illiquidity is the product, not a flaw in it.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are at a big inflection point right now,\u201d Brandmeyer agreed, \u201cand there is certainly a lot of stuff going on,\u201d but the data show this is not a systemic issue. <\/p>\n

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Illiquidity premium under pressure<\/h2>\n

Lurking beneath the distribution problem is a more fundamental challenge to the private equity value proposition.<\/p>\n

For the first time in decades, the three-year rolling alpha of private equity relative to public markets has gone negative. Public markets surged 40% to 50% over two years while private equity marks, smoothed by design, failed to keep pace. Brandmeyer said he\u2019s getting one question a lot, even at cocktail parties: \u201cShould I still be having this allocation to private equity?\u201d <\/p>\n

Goldman\u2019s response is that the comparison is cyclical rather than structural. Private equity historically shows its strongest outperformance when public markets are flat or modestly positive \u2014 and looks weakest precisely when public markets are ripping. \u201cAlpha is cyclical in the private markets,\u201d Brandmeyer said. \u201cAnd that\u2019s because private equity is a levered asset class. It is pro-cyclical.\u201d<\/p>\n

For all its candor about current stress, Goldman is ultimately making a bull case \u2014 grounded in specific structural shifts.<\/p>\n

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The secondary market is the most immediate relief valve. Goldman estimates it will grow from roughly $250 billion today to $500 billion within three to five years. The global secondary market hit $240 billion in transaction volume in 2025 \u2014 a 48% year-over-year jump and the largest year on record, according to Jefferies \u2014 with Lazard independently corroborating a 53% surge to $233 billion.<\/p>\n

The IPO backlog has been building for months. Deal mandates at Goldman are, in Brandmeyer\u2019s words, \u201cvery considerable.\u201d The firm\u2019s base case: pent-up supply, combined with renewed LP pressure on GPs to return capital, will drive normalization over the next 1 to 3 years \u2014 potentially exceeding the 2021 market peak if geopolitics cooperate. \u201cBut for the Iran War, we think that 2026 was setting up to be a great year,\u201d Brandmeyer said.<\/p>\n

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The longer-term structural argument is about where the innovation economy now lives. The average VC-backed company takes 14 years to go public because it no longer needs to \u2014 tens of billions in private capital are available without the disclosure obligations and quarterly earnings pressure of public markets. Amazon went public in 1997 to raise $54 million. That era is over. \u201cMost of the innovation out there in terms of new companies is going to live in the private markets,\u201d Brandmeyer said. \u201cI don\u2019t see that changing, honestly.\u201d<\/p>\n

Goldman also sees the current stress accelerating an industry shakeout that was already underway. A \u201cbarbell-like structure\u201d is forming: large multi-line public asset managers on one end, highly specialized boutiques with strong alpha on the other. Goldman, of course, sits comfortably at the large end of that barbell \u2014 with \u201ca front row seat,\u201d as Lyon put it, across agency, asset, and wealth management businesses. Its reassuring read on private markets is informed by that perch, but it\u2019s also shaped by it.<\/p>\n

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Only time will tell<\/h2>\n

Private markets are in a genuine structural reset. The hold periods, the distribution drought, the retail liquidity crunch \u2014 these are real and measurable. Goldman isn\u2019t denying any of it.<\/p>\n

Goldman argues that \u201cgummed up\u201d is not the same as \u201cbroken.\u201d That an asset class which survived the GFC, the 2020 pandemic shock, and the 2022 rate spike with loss rates well below public equity drawdowns has demonstrated real durability. That the structural forces driving capital into private markets \u2014 the migration of the innovation economy, the democratization of alternatives, the expansion of the secondary market \u2014 have long-term legs.<\/p>\n

Whether you find that argument convincing likely depends on where you sit. For limited partners watching distributions dry up and default rates tick higher, the optimism may feel premature. For the GPs doing the work of building companies, it may feel earned.<\/p>\n

Either way, the machine is straining. Goldman thinks it knows how to fix it. The next two years will tell us whether they\u2019re right.<\/p>\n

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For this story,\u00a0<\/em>Fortune\u00a0journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.<\/em><\/p>\n

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