{"id":1485,"date":"2026-06-15T20:11:25","date_gmt":"2026-06-15T20:11:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=1485"},"modified":"2026-06-15T20:11:25","modified_gmt":"2026-06-15T20:11:25","slug":"top-analyst-71-of-spacexs-2-trillion-value-rests-on-ai-groks-numbers-are-almost-comical-by-comparison","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=1485","title":{"rendered":"Top analyst: 71% of SpaceX\u2019s $2 trillion value rests on AI. Grok\u2019s numbers are \u2018almost comical\u2019 by comparison"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Keith Snyder, a senior equities analyst at the Center for Financial Research and Analysis, says he can only match SpaceX\u2019s current $2 trillion market cap by factoring in \u201calmost comical growth for AI\u201d \u2014 and still falling short. His estimate: xAI accounts for 71% of SpaceX\u2019s valuation. \u201cI hope most investors did not give that number weight,\u201d he said of the S1\u2019s AI projections.<\/p>\n

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To be sure, one part of SpaceX\u2019s rocket and satellite business is profitable and dominant \u2014 Starlink counts millions of paying subscribers globally, and bulls argue that xAI is early-stage, Grok\u2019s integration into X gives it a distribution edge and enterprise adoption curves for AI products can inflect sharply. SpaceX did not respond to Fortune\u2019s request for comment.<\/p>\n

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The S1 gave investors something to dream on: SpaceX claimed 93% of its total addressable market would be \u201cin AI\u201d \u2014 a figure roughly equivalent to U.S. annual GDP, or $26.5 trillion. \u201cThis is an Elon Musk company, so Elon Musk numbers are wildly optimistic,\u201d Snyder told Fortune<\/em>, \u201cand so the TAM number that they came out with, I have absolutely no idea how they arrived at.\u201d<\/p>\n

To Snyder\u2019s point, SpaceX explicitly argued in its S1 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission: We believe we have identified the largest TAM in human history.\u201d The company estimated $28.5 trillion in quantifiable TAM, of which $26.5 trillion was allocated for AI, \u201cacross $2.4 trillion in AI infrastructure, $760 billion in consumer subscriptions, $600 billion in digital advertising, and $22.7 trillion in enterprise applications.\u201d<\/p>\n

The current data offers little comfort for that optimism. Of the 117 million people who currently interact with Grok via its freemium model, just 1.6% pay for the premium tier (1.9 million SuperGrok, SuperGrok Heavy and SuperGrok Lite paid subscribers). That compares to roughly 5% who paid users for ChatGPT in 2025. New data from AI adoption tracker Ramp shows xAI at just 3% business adoption, against Anthropic and OpenAI \u2014 both at 40%.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe issue is if those users are not adopting Grok every on a weekly basis, or ideally a daily basis, and for sticky high-value use cases, they\u2019re probably never going to pay for Grok,\u201d Kyle Poyar, a former operating partner at venture capital firm OpenView, told Fortune<\/em>. Poyar, who has expertise in AI monetization and product-led growth, mentioned Anthropic as an example of an AI company making itself indispensable by \u201cgoing into much deeper, stickier use cases\u201d and using their free offering as an \u201ceffective on-ramp.\u201d<\/p>\n

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