{"id":1577,"date":"2026-06-17T05:11:55","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T05:11:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=1577"},"modified":"2026-06-17T05:11:55","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T05:11:55","slug":"u-s-iran-interim-deal-what-could-a-gulf-bounce-back-look-like","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=1577","title":{"rendered":"U.S.-Iran interim deal: What could a Gulf bounce back look like?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Announced on Sunday evening, the memorandum of understanding, which\u00a0provides a 60-day ceasefire extension and free passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, is due to be formally signed in Geneva on Friday.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=1575\">Vietnam is becoming the hottest tourist hotspot in Southeast Asia\u2014and trying to avoid Thailand\u2019s mistakes<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The Gulf states, often to their surprise, have been on the front line of the conflict, facing missile and drone attacks.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Is it too soon for them to start talking about a bounce back?<\/p>\n<p>Historically, the Gulf has shown an ability to recover quickly after major shocks. After the 1991 liberation of Kuwait, oil production and core economic activity rebounded more quickly than many observers had\u00a0anticipated, supported by oil revenues, substantial overseas assets, and government-led reconstruction. Studies of Kuwait\u2019s recovery highlight the\u00a0importance of sovereign wealth funds\u00a0and strong state finances.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>More recently, the recovery of Dubai\u2019s tourism sector in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic was unusually fast by global standards. By the end of 2022, Dubai received 14.36 million international visitors, reaching\u00a086% of pre-COVID tourism levels\u00a0and outperforming the 63% global tourism recovery rate.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Admittedly, this rapid resurgence was in part driven by a combination of mega-events such as Expo 2020 and the Qatar World Cup, but Dubai also wasted no time in leveraging its position as a global aviation hub and luring tourists and residents alike through a host of tax-free incentives,\u00a0visa, and citizenship reforms.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Clearly, a direct analogy cannot be drawn between a global pandemic and war\u2014missiles striking buildings\u00a0has\u00a0not only shaken residents\u2019 nerves but also investor confidence. And that will take time to return.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>No doubt GCC states will need to redouble efforts to attract inward investment as businesses sit on the sidelines to see if peace lasts, but in aggregate, their economic fundamentals remain sound.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>At the end of May, Fitch maintained the credit ratings and stable outlooks on five GCC states\u2014excluding Oman\u2014largely due to\u00a0their substantial fiscal buffers that have acted as a cushion against economic shocks.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>While Saudi has seen some notable\u00a0downsizing of its gigaprojects, the Gulf\u2019s healthy coffers will help ensure they\u00a0remain\u00a0broadly committed to pursuing their respective economic diversification strategies. The\u00a0UAE\u2019s exit from OPEC, meanwhile, brings it more immediate liquidity and fiscal flexibility.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Wood Mackenzie estimates that the fields affected by the Strait\u2019s closure could return to 70% of pre-conflict production\u00a0within three months\u00a0and\u00a090% within six months, assuming operators choose a measured and controlled ramp-up. Safely transiting the oil through the Strait of Hormuz will\u00a0arguably present\u00a0the bigger challenge.<\/p>\n<p>The Iran war has redrawn the economic and geopolitical landscape of the Gulf but the conflict has also deepened its conviction to accelerate reforms and plans for recovery are already being hammered out.<\/p>\n<p>As we have seen during the course of this war, a lot can happen in a day, let alone 60 days. Successful\u00a0negotiations on the most contentious issues and the emergence of a permanent deal that could reset the Gulf\u2019s fortunes hang in the balance.<\/p>\n<p><em><br \/>melissa.hancock@fortune.com<\/em><\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><em>Get in touch: Reply to this email with feedback or contact me directly at the address above.<\/em><\/p>\n<h3>SpaceX IPO: Meteoric success<\/h3>\n<p>So, it happened. The much-hyped and eagerly-awaited SpaceX listing achieved lift-off last Friday\u2014sending the company&#8217;s valuation skyrocketing past $2 trillion\u2014and giving the Gulf\u2019s sovereign wealth funds a handsome payday.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal\u2019s net worth has climbed to its\u00a0highest level\u00a0in a decade.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>As I covered in my newsletter last week, Gulf investors were among the earliest backers of SpaceX and its subsidiaries, viewing its technology offering as central to ensuring their economic competitiveness and national resilience.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Their enthusiasm for the rocket, satellite, and AI company shows no sign of abating.<\/p>\n<p>Gulf funds doubled down on their positions\u00a0in the days leading up to the listing,\u00a0submitting\u00a0orders for shares worth billions of dollars, Bloomberg reported.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>SpaceX\u2019s debut is the first of three mega-IPOs expected this year, along with AI giants OpenAI and Anthropic.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>That means the performance of SpaceX stock will be closely scrutinized in the coming days and weeks.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=1573\">Citi, Ford, and Experian share their strategies for scaling AI agents<\/a><\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Its high valuation has already made it the world\u2019s eighth -largest company by market capitalization, ahead of Musk\u2019s electric vehicle maker, Tesla, and just behind Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC. Here\u2019s how it stacks up\u00a0against other historic IPOs.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>But the question on most people\u2019s lips today is whether the share price will continue to \u201cpop\u201d or experience a significant correction.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>For a full analysis of how investors should be thinking about SpaceX, read my colleague Shawn Tully\u2019s piece here<\/p>\n<h3>Gulf-backed Paramount-Warner Bros merger approved<\/h3>\n<p>The U.S. Department of Justice has approved the $111 billion merger of Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery with a trio of Gulf sovereign wealth funds committing roughly $24 billion in equity.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The UAE&#8217;s L&#8217;imad, Saudi&#8217;s Public Investment Fund (PIF) and the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) will own a combined stake of 38.5% and therefore comprise the lion&#8217;s share of the 49.55% stake that will be owned by foreign investors.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>While they will not have board seats or voting shares so as to limit political and regulatory sensitivity, the Gulf funds&#8217; involvement is also significant in helping to finance one of the largest mergers of U.S. media and entertainment assets.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The acquisition of Warner Bros. would significantly expand Paramount&#8217;s media and entertainment footprint, adding the CNN news network, HBO and other major television brands, as well as DC Studios and New Line Cinema, to its already extensive asset base.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>For Gulf funds, the acquisition provides access to brands that have a global reach that extends across film, television, streaming, gaming, licensing and consumer products.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>In turn, this furnishes them with valuable intellectual property and cultural soft power while also supporting their economic diversification strategies as they seek to build out their tourism and entertainment industries.<\/p>\n<h3>From New York to the Gulf: U.S. Private Credit Firms have spotted a new opportunity<\/h3>\n<p>We\u2019re not even halfway through, but 2026 is already a year the U.S. private credit markets would rather forget.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>A historic industry-wide spike in redemption requests across 16 direct lending funds\u2014amounting to $19 billion\u00a0in the first quarter\u2014was a stark illustration of souring sentiment towards the asset class. Collectively,\u00a0the funds\u00a0hold investments worth\u00a0roughly $275 billion.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>With investors spooked by a heady mix of high interest rates, increasing borrower debt burdens and high exposure to a software industry vulnerable to AI disruption, household names such as Blackstone, Blue Owl Capital and Cliffwater became embroiled in the \u201crisk-off\u201d panic.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Blue Owl Capital was in the eye of the storm.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The NYSE-listed firm, which manages $315 billion in assets, saw investors rush to withdraw roughly $5.4 billion from two of its flagship funds\u2014ultimately forcing it to\u00a0cap withdrawals at 5% of shares.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Never let a serious crisis go to waste, former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel told his boss, Barack Obama. The private credit sector has been listening, with a wave of moves as they hunt out new opportunities.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Blue Owl Capital announced last week that it had\u00a0opened an office\u00a0in Abu Dhabi.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>In welcome contrast to the volatility besetting the US market, the\u00a0relatively nascent\u00a0Gulf private credit market\u00a0represents\u00a0a bright spot and is attracting a steady stream of global asset managers.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Gulf sovereign funds quadrupled their allocations to private credit between 2021 and 2025 to\u00a0roughly $80 billion, according to data from Gulf SWF.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>And the growth trajectory looks positive, according to industry experts I spoke with last week. Read my piece here.<\/p>\n<h3>The Big Number<\/h3>\n<h2>$ 20 billion<\/h2>\n<p>The amount raised and deployed by JP Morgan into the Gulf region since the beginning of the Iran war, with the U.S.\u2019s biggest bank estimating that hundreds of billions of dollars will be needed to rebuild infrastructure and support diversification once the war is over. Speaking to The National, Doug Petno, JPMorgan&#8217;s co-chief executive of commercial and investment banking operations, who met with regional sovereign and corporate clients in recent weeks, said the bank is going to \u201cmove faster\u201d in terms of building its capabilities across the Gulf. It plans to double its regional headcount in the next three to five years.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=1571\">Trump turned the dollar into a foreign policy tool, and now risks undermining the currency\u2019s extraordinary status, think tank says<\/a><\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<h3>The 3 things we enjoyed reading this week<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>The  after the U.S.-Iran peace agreement has been signed, but unwinding the biggest oil disruption ever will take longer than creating it, as my colleague Jason Ma explains. He cites Capital Economics; working assumption that 80% of energy flows will resume\u00a0by the end of Q3, but a return to \u2018normal\u2019 could stretch into 2027.<\/li>\n<li>The , but given that returns will be concentrated among a limited number of VCs, is SpaceX a win for venture? My colleague Allie Garfinkle spoke to an industry expert who explained why it\u2019s complicated.<\/li>\n<li> on the news that the U.S. and Iran had agreed on an interim truce. However, the most contentious issues will be negotiated over the next 60 days as outlined in this <em>Fortune<\/em> piece.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S.\u2013Iran peace deal has sparked relief across global markets, but investors are still waiting to see whether the breakthrough can translate into lasting stability<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1576,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[148],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1577","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fortune-gulf-brief"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>U.S.-Iran interim deal: What could a Gulf bounce back look like? - Cross Country Moving Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=1577\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"U.S.-Iran interim deal: What could a Gulf bounce back look like? 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