{"id":1852,"date":"2026-06-20T22:42:34","date_gmt":"2026-06-20T22:42:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=1852"},"modified":"2026-06-20T22:42:34","modified_gmt":"2026-06-20T22:42:34","slug":"shipping-companies-will-decide-when-the-strait-of-hormuz-is-truly-open-not-the-u-s-or-iran-and-the-latest-deal-is-already-sowing-confusion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=1852","title":{"rendered":"Shipping companies will decide when the Strait of Hormuz is truly open\u2014not the U.S. or Iran\u2014and the latest deal is already sowing confusion"},"content":{"rendered":"
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On Saturday,\u00a0Iran\u2019s military command said it closed the strait, citing continued Israeli attacks on Lebanon and U.S. \u201cbad faith\u201d in failing to uphold commitments to end the war. It also warned that \u201cif the aggression continues, subsequent steps have been planned.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more Claude Guillemot, who built Ubisoft into a gaming empire, dies at 69 in plane crash<\/a><\/p>\n

Not to be outdone, President Donald Trump threatened to charge U.S. tolls for \u201cservices rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East,\u201d\u00a0if a final deal with Iran isn\u2019t reached in 60 days.<\/p>\n

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That came after the start of talks between the two countries had been delayed while both sides also sought to assert influence over the strait.<\/p>\n

U.S. Central Command insisted safe passage through the strait remained intact and that traffic is up, with 55 merchant ships loaded with cargo and 17 million barrels of oil transiting on Saturday.<\/p>\n

It added that U.S. forces are still operating in the area to support freedom of navigation and pointed out that the Joint Maritime Information Center issued an advisory on Thursday affirming that a southern route along Oman\u2019s coast is safe. <\/p>\n

While the U.S. ended its naval blockade on Iran as part of the MOU, Central Command also said \u201cU.S. forces remain present and vigilant to ensure all aspects of the agreement with Iran are adhered to, obeyed, and in full force and effect.\u201d<\/p>\n

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For its part, Tehran\u2019s new Persian Gulf Strait Authority warned that ships must follow a regime-established route that passes along the Iranian coast and that alternatives are prohibited.<\/p>\n

And despite its deal with the U.S. banning tolls for 60 days, the PGSA is requiring insurance that will eventually come at a cost.<\/p>\n

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\u201cAt present, this insurance is provided free of charge to the vessel owner, with all expenses covered by the Islamic Republic of Iran,\u201d Iran said. \u201cThe PGSA reserves the right to introduce insurance fees in the future, which will be determined by the relevant insurer. Owners will then be required to purchase and renew coverage accordingly.\u201d<\/p>\n

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For ships that require assurances of safe passage, recent developments aren\u2019t helping. Oil prices tumbled after the U.S. and Iran announced the deal last weekend, but a return to normal flows will take months.<\/p>\n

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And until supplies recover, global oil inventories will continue to remain under pressure. In the U.S., the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has already plunged to the lowest level since 1983.<\/p>\n

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which was the scene of regular skirmishes between the U.S. and Iran before the latest deal, highlights the private sector\u2019s role.<\/p>\n

Read more James Burrows, director who defined the American sitcom from \u2018Cheers\u2019 to \u2018Friends,\u2019 dies at 85<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cBut it\u2019s not Iran or the US who decide that the strait is open\u2014it\u2019s shipping and insurance companies,\u201d Eurasia Group senior analyst Gregory Brew posted on X.<\/p>\n

While other Iran experts predicted Saturday\u2019s announcement of the strait\u2019s closure would scare off ships just as traffic was showing signs of climbing, Brew questioned if that will be a sufficient threat.<\/p>\n

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Again, it\u2019s up to the ships to decide.<\/p>\n

\u201cWill the Iranian announcement be enough to deter them? Or will Iran need to resort to force and directly violate the MOU\u2019s terms?\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

Even before the latest flurry of mixed signals, the industry had doubts. One shipping executive told the New York Times<\/em> on Friday that he deemed the conditions too uncertain for his ship to leave the Persian Gulf.<\/p>\n

Underwater mines also remain a threat, along with navigational risks like collision, especially if there\u2019s a mass rush among ships to try exiting at once.<\/p>\n

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German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd told the Times<\/em> that its vessels still in the Persian Gulf were ready to go but still waiting. <\/p>\n

\u201cNo indication right now when we would move,\u201d a spokesman said on Friday.<\/p>\n

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To be sure, the Strait of Hormuz is Iran\u2019s main source of leverage, and the regime\u2019s announcement that it\u2019s closed again could be timed for the start of negotiations with the U.S., according to Brew.<\/p>\n

Indeed, Iran demonstrated it can shut down the strait despite heavy U.S. and Israeli bombardment during the war. At the same time, the U.S. has also tried to tout its ability to defend the alternate route near Oman.<\/p>\n

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Earlier this month, Trump described a \u201csecret mission\u201d that he claimed had put more than 100 million barrels of oil on the market, or about five day\u2019s worth of shipments before the war started.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cI can say it now. Something you didn\u2019t know,\u201d he said. \u201cDo you know we\u2019ve been taking out millions of barrels of oil? Nobody knows it. You know who doesn\u2019t know about it? Iran \u2014 until right now.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more U.S. Mens National Team wins consecutive World Cup games for first time since 1930, one goal away from record<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“Will the Iranian announcement be enough to deter them? 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