{"id":1868,"date":"2026-06-21T10:44:40","date_gmt":"2026-06-21T10:44:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=1868"},"modified":"2026-06-21T10:44:40","modified_gmt":"2026-06-21T10:44:40","slug":"the-national-debts-20-year-deadline-and-baby-boomers-spending-problem-a-lot-of-incentive-for-every-generation-to-try-to-pass-a-big-bill","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=1868","title":{"rendered":"The national debt\u2019s 20-year deadline and baby boomers\u2019 spending problem: \u2018a lot of incentive for every generation to try to pass a big bill\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"
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In a new analysis and in an interview with Fortune<\/em>, the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) faculty director sketches an outer limit for U.S. federal debt and a political economy that heavily favors older Americans. His bluntest line may also be his simplest: \u201cWe do spend about 10x more per older person than we do per younger person. In total, we spend about 6x in aggregate on older people than younger people.\u201d <\/p>\n

Read more Nobel Laureate Daron Acemoglu on the \u2018brainless\u2019 AI discourse, the myth of capitalism and the Gen Z revolution risk<\/a><\/p>\n

This means means the average older person gets\u00a0much\u00a0more than the average younger person as a policy choice, but since there is a greater number of younger people, when you add up all dollars going to each group, the total to older people is \u201conly\u201d about\u00a0six times. PWBM estimated in April retirees (adults age 65 and older) receive $2.7 trillion, equal to 38.6% of total federal outlays and 61.9% of age-assignable spending, while working-age adults (ages 26-64) receive $1.2 trillion (27.9% of age-assignable), and children and young adults (under age 26) receive $449 billion (10.3%).<\/p>\n

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Smetters added he works a lot on understanding the political economy of the U.S. and there\u2019s just \u201ca lot of incentive for every generation to try to pass a big bill to the next generation. The question is, how long can they get away with that?\u201d<\/p>\n

A 210% ceiling\u2014and a 20\u2011year runway<\/h2>\n

Smetters and his team estimate U.S. federal debt cannot rationally exceed about 210% of GDP. Above that level, he argues, there is no feasible broad\u2011based tax on labor income that can cover the interest bill at the returns investors will demand. That figure is an \u201couter bound,\u201d not a forecast: In his words, it is \u201creally the upper limit,\u201d not a target that markets will calmly finance.<\/p>\n

The more immediate concern is timing. Under what PWBM labels \u201chistorical\u201d excess health care cost growth\u2014the pace at which health spending per person has tended to outrun the broader economy\u2014the U.S. is likely to hit that outer bound within about 20 years, with a one\u2011in\u2011four chance of hitting it in just 14. In the model\u2019s median scenario, the \u201cclosure year\u201d\u2014the last point at which policymakers can still restore sustainability with a feasible tax\u2014is as early as 2045 if health care costs grow quickly, and 2051 under more optimistic assumptions.<\/p>\n

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\u201cThe assumption is that the financial markets are being set in a way where they keep believing that Congress will eventually get its act together up until the point where it\u2019s mathematically impossible for that to be true anymore,\u201d Smetters said. \u201cSometimes people ask me, \u2018You know, when could financial markets unravel?\u2019 And the answer is, well, that could happen today, it could happen tomorrow, it could happen whenever they stop believing that Congress will eventually get its act together.\u201d<\/p>\n

When baby boomers meet the debt ceiling<\/h2>\n

Those dates line up uncomfortably well with the gradual fading of the baby boomer generation from positions of economic and political power. Asked whether it is a coincidence his 20\u2011year horizon roughly overlaps with the last years of baby boomer dominance in Congress and the C\u2011suite, Smetters was cautious but open to the framing.<\/p>\n

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He connected the budget choices to a broader psychology of ownership. In the Social Security and retirement space, he says, Americans routinely treat government\u2011funded benefits as if they were purely private property\u2014even when taxpayers have put up most of the cash.<\/p>\n

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\u201cWe always stretch out what ownership is,\u201d he told Fortune<\/em>. \u201cWe like to think: \u2018Yeah, If the government put in 90% and I put in 10%, I still want access to the entire account because I need to replace my roof and I have a good reason [for needing the funds].\u201d<\/p>\n

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That mindset shapes the debate over Social Security, he added, where the main trust fund that pays retired workers\u2019 benefits is projected to run dry in the early 2030s. Smetters noted his team was earlier than official forecasters in calling the \u201ccrossover date\u201d when benefits would exceed revenues, and their depletion date\u2014around 2032 for the main old\u2011age fund\u2014has since been confirmed by the Social Security Trustees and the Congressional Budget Office.<\/p>\n

Once the trust fund is exhausted, he estimated, the program can pay only about 83% of scheduled benefits, and that fraction erodes further over time. But he doubts that deadline will force timely action.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe last time we fixed Social Security in 1983, we waited very close for bad things to happen,\u201d he said. \u201cBased on past experience, we\u2019ve waited pretty long \u2026 to take action.\u201d<\/p>\n

Why easy fixes fall short<\/h2>\n

In the current political debate, that looming Social Security shortfall has collided with a parade of more exotic ideas, from Trump Accounts for newborns to proposals for some kind of \u201cAI dividend\u201d that would redirect tech profits back to the public. <\/p>\n

Read more New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh\u2019s decision to drop forward guidance may actually empower the central bank\u2019s other policymakers<\/a><\/p>\n

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Smetters was skeptical. <\/p>\n

\u201cPeople are excited about AI and think it\u2019s going to lead to all this economic growth. People are just misunderstanding it,\u201d he said. \u201cEven if it does lead to more growth than we\u2019re projecting, spending is going to go up with it. It\u2019s not true that AI will simply increase the tax base without increasing spending.\u201d His biggest concern, he added, is how many of us are \u201creally misguided in our understanding of future progress, future growth.\u201d<\/p>\n

Behind the scenes, Smetters has pushed a less flashy but more radical idea: Shut down the costly tax deduction for 401(k) and 403(b) contributions, which he estimates cost roughly $1.3 trillion to $1.4 trillion in forgone revenue over 10 years in earlier work, and reroute that money into non\u2011contributory retirement accounts for low\u2011income workers linked to the earned income tax credit. Crucially, he said, people would not be allowed to deposit their own money in those accounts at all, precisely to avoid the political pressure for early withdrawals that has undermined past efforts to nudge workers into saving more.<\/p>\n

The psychology that Smetters describes isn\u2019t new; the great comedian George Carlin captured it decades ago with the line Jon Stewart calls one of his most profound: \u201cMy shit is stuff; your stuff is shit.\u201d It also recalls the paradoxical protest sign from a Republican voter about a federal benefit: \u201cKeep your government hands off my Medicare!\u201d<\/p>\n

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Smetters\u2019 version is if the government funds 90% of your retirement account and you put in 10%, you still feel entitled to \u201cthe entire account\u201d because, as he put it, \u201cthat\u2019s all mine. It\u2019s not yours.\u201d<\/p>\n

A Liz Truss warning for Washington<\/h2>\n

If the numbers and the politics sound abstract, Smetters insisted the consequences are not. When countries bump up against their fiscal limits, he said, the damage goes far beyond the bond market.<\/p>\n

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\u201cYou get this radical reordering when a country is overwhelmed with debt,\u201d he said, pointing to episodes ranging from Germany\u2019s collapse in the early 1930s to modern crises in Argentina. Fiscal crack\u2011ups, he argues, make voters more willing to gamble on strongmen or untested extremes on the left or right.<\/p>\n

He said he keeps returning to Britain\u2019s short\u2011lived Liz Truss government as a cautionary tale, referring to the prime minister whose unserious financial plan saw her ejected from office in less time than it took a head of lettuce to wilt, as the British press savagely noted. <\/p>\n

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\u201cI think we\u2019re actually going to see financial markets try to discipline us long before we hit that limit,\u201d he said of the U.S. debt path. \u201cWe could easily have our Liz Truss moment in the United States within the next five, 10 years.\u201d<\/p>\n

The technical PWBM paper that underpins his concerns emphasizes the same point in more formal language, using a classic framework from economists Harold Cole and Timothy Kehoe: Even well before a country reaches its mathematical solvency limit, there is a \u201ccrisis zone\u201d at intermediate debt levels where a shift in investor expectations alone can trigger a self\u2011fulfilling run. In that zone, markets don\u2019t wait for the last dollar of capacity to be used up before demanding higher interest rates\u2014or refusing to refinance government debt at all.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat people don\u2019t get is that when you have these financial collapses, it\u2019s not just finance,\u201d Smetters said. The problem the U.K. faces now, he said, is that they already have very high taxes so their \u201cfiscal space\u201d is quite limited in terms of what they can do now. <\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s the problem with the baby boomer generation,\u201d he added. \u201cIt\u2019s going to be really hard to change benefits over time.\u201d Sometimes when you have giant fiscal problems that keep going unsolved, year after year, \u201cthey can lead to really incredible changes in society that can be very disruptive, beyond just economics.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more \u2018People are tired of hearing what government can\u2019t do\u2019: Democratic Socialists surge nationwide<\/a><\/p>\n

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Kent Smetters, faculty director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model, estimates that we spend 6x more on older than young people \u2014\u00a0or actually more like 10x.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1867,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[170],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1868","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-national-debt"],"yoast_head":"\nThe national debt\u2019s 20-year deadline and baby boomers\u2019 spending problem: \u2018a lot of incentive for every generation to try to pass a big bill\u2019 - Cross Country Moving Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=1868\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The national debt\u2019s 20-year deadline and baby boomers\u2019 spending problem: \u2018a lot of incentive for every generation to try to pass a big bill\u2019 - 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