{"id":2206,"date":"2026-06-25T14:14:35","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T14:14:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2206"},"modified":"2026-06-25T14:14:35","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T14:14:35","slug":"the-iran-war-is-accelerating-the-ev-transition-faster-than-any-climate-policy-ever-did-but-its-still-just-not-that-much","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2206","title":{"rendered":"The Iran war is accelerating the EV transition faster than any climate policy ever did\u2014but it\u2019s still just not that much"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>For the first time in history, more than a quarter of all car sales were EVs,  Goldman Sachs commodities team wrote in a recent research report. In the grand scheme, the number is pretty paltry, especially considering the early iteration of the Prius was first released nearly three decades ago, and Teslas and other higher-end EVs first came out nearly 15 years ago. But still, the report finds a 3.4 percentage point increase on global EV sales since the Hormuz shock began, reaching 26.1% of all car sales in May, an all-time high.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2204\">Reddit COO targets 1 billion users as internet\u2019s \u2018odd duck\u2019 aims for new heights<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The acceleration has been broad-based: 12 of the 15 largest EV markets have seen penetration rise since February, Goldman found. The bank now estimates the shift could shave 0.13 to 0.32 million barrels per day off global oil demand by December 2027, a figure that, while modest against roughly 100 mb\/d of total consumption, carries outsized significance for a market already navigating a supply crisis.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u201cThis acceleration in global EV car sales suggests our downside oil price scenario is plausible,\u201d the report read.<\/p>\n<p>Goldman\u2019s analysts project Brent could fall to the mid-$50s per barrel by late 2027 if Hormuz constraints persist and EV momentum holds.<\/p>\n<p>No market has moved faster than China, according to the report. EV penetration there has jumped 11.4 percentage points since February, driven by a combination of existing EV infrastructure, competitive domestic pricing, and fuel costs that made gasoline cars increasingly unaffordable as global oil prices spiked. China alone accounts for 61% of the total global increase in EV penetration since February, Goldman found, with OECD markets contributing 21% and non-OECD markets outside China making up the remaining 19%.<\/p>\n<p>The U.S., by contrast, has barely budged: up just 0.1 percentage point, per the report. Goldman attributes that partly to the federal EV tax credit expiring in late 2025, which pulled forward purchases and left demand with less room to grow.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2202\">Top CD rates from major banks on June 25, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more<\/a><\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Goldman applies a rule of thumb: every 1 million vehicles that shift from internal combustion to electric cuts road fuel demand by 30,000 barrels per day in the U.S. and 20,000 barrels per day elsewhere. Under the bank\u2019s more conservative \u201ctemporary acceleration\u201d scenario\u2014which assumes EV penetration flatlines at its current elevated levels\u2014the cumulative demand hit by the end of 2027 reaches 0.13 mb\/d. Under its \u201cpersistent acceleration\u201d scenario, where current trends continue through late 2027, the figure rises to 0.32 mb\/d.<\/p>\n<p>Goldman cautions those figures likely understate the full picture. The analysis covers only new passenger car sales\u2014it doesn\u2019t capture the behavioral shift Goldman says is already underway within the existing vehicle stock. In China, the bank notes, owners of plug-in hybrids are increasingly opting to charge rather than refuel, contributing to what Goldman estimates as a more than 20% year-over-year drop in gasoline and related product sales volumes. Two- and three-wheeler EVs\u2014which Goldman says command 92% of EV sales in India, 80% in Vietnam, and 35% in China\u2014add further displacement that doesn\u2019t appear in the passenger car data at all.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The Goldman report is interesting for what it implies about the relationship between energy shocks and technology adoption. Climate policy, fuel economy standards, and government EV subsidies have spent years nudging consumers toward electric vehicles, but the Iran war may have done more in four months. Goldman\u2019s downside scenario envisions a 1.5 mb\/d persistent loss in global oil demand tied to the conflict, versus 0.5 mb\/d in its base case\u2014with Brent in the mid-$50s representing a structural headwind for producers betting on sustained demand growth through the decade.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>In the U.S., new EV sales in the U.S. totaled roughly 85,000 units in May\u2014just 5.7% of total vehicle sales, down nearly 22% from a year earlier. The collapse traces directly to the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit in September 2025, which has yet to be replaced.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>In China, the dynamic is inverted: EVs accounted for nearly 63% of all retail car sales in May, with gasoline vehicles\u2019 share collapsing to just 37%\u2014and in April, China had already hit a record high of more than 60% electric, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2200\">Gen Z graduates are blaming AI for their unemployment woes when they should be looking somewhere else<\/a><\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Goldman Sachs put a percentage on the EV adoption &#8220;surge&#8221; after the Iran War: 3%. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2205,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[348],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2206","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-electric-vehicles"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - 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