{"id":2541,"date":"2026-06-30T12:41:27","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T12:41:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2541"},"modified":"2026-06-30T12:41:27","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T12:41:27","slug":"gcc-debt-markets-have-rallied-since-the-ceasefire-but-tight-liquidity-remains-a-key-hurdle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2541","title":{"rendered":"GCC debt markets have rallied since the ceasefire, but tight liquidity remains a key hurdle\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Many GCC US dollar\u00a0sukuk\u00a0(Islamic bond)\u00a0and bond yields had widened to\u00a0five-year high spreads\u00a0by the end of March\u2014the highest levels since the pandemic\u2014but\u00a0have narrowed significantly toward pre-war levels over the\u00a0past few months.<\/p>\n

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\u201cGCC fixed-income yields are benefiting from a decline in geopolitical risk premiums,\u201d\u00a0the\u00a0Fitch\u00a0Ratings\u00a0said\u00a0in a report\u00a0published in mid-June.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

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The\u00a0credit rating\u00a0agency noted how the spread on the S&P GCC Bond Index\u2014the most utilized benchmark for the region\u2014has fallen to 89 basis points, from 126 basis points in March, and\u00a0roughly 100\u00a0basis points before the war.\u00a0<\/p>\n

GCC sukuk, meanwhile, continue to have lower yields than GCC bonds, on average, due to broader demand from Islamic banks, although spreads on high-yield GCC sukuk remain heightened.<\/p>\n

\u201cSince the first ceasefire, and even more so since the signing of the\u00a0memorandum of understanding, bonds have rallied and yields have come down quite nicely,\u201d\u00a0Azad Zangana, head of GCC macroeconomic\u00a0analysis at Oxford Economics in Dubai, told\u00a0Fortune.\u00a0<\/em>\u201cSo, it looks like the worst has passed in terms of risk premiums in the market for now.\u201d<\/p>\n

In turn, the improvement in the market\u2019s fundamentals is fuelling a revival in issuance.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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A\u00a0combined total of $7.5bn in\u202fdebt was issued by\u00a0QatarEnergy,\u00a0AviLease, Emirates NBD,\u00a0First Abu Dhabi Bank,\u00a0Dukhan\u00a0Bank\u00a0and\u00a0Burjeel\u00a0Holdings in the week to 26 June.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The strength of\u00a0demand for\u00a0Burjeel\u00a0Holdings\u2019\u00a0$500 million\u00a0sukuk\u00a0led to it being\u00a03.2\u00a0times oversubscribed. It was\u00a0priced\u00a0with a 7%\u00a0profit rate and a yield of 7.125%.<\/p>\n

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This\u00a0represents\u00a0the lowest 5-year yield by a GCC-based private non-investment\u00a0grade corporate issuer since 2020.<\/p>\n

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The\u00a0$500 million sukuk is due to be listed\u00a0on the International Securities Market of the London Stock Exchange\u00a0on\u00a0July\u00a01.<\/p>\n

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But while\u00a0easing geopolitical risk has helped spur a recovery in GCC bond prices,\u00a0borrowing costs\u00a0remain\u00a0elevated as\u00a0dollar liquidity remains tight.\u00a0<\/p>\n

GCC fixed-income yields are closely correlated to U.S. Treasuries\u00a0as\u00a0all Gulf currencies\u2014with the exception of\u00a0the\u00a0Kuwaiti\u00a0dinar\u2014are solely pegged to the dollar.<\/p>\n

As a result, expectations for U.S. monetary policy remain a key driver of the region\u2019s debt markets.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Fitch\u00a0Ratings\u00a0does not forecast any Federal Reserve rate cuts in the second half of 2026. Meanwhile, over three-quarters of economists polled\u00a0by\u00a0Reuters<\/em>\u00a0expect the\u00a0Fed to hold interest rates\u00a0steady for the rest of 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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In early May, the UAE\u2019s trade minister\u00a0Thani Al Zeyoudi\u00a0said the country was\u00a0discussing a currency swap line\u00a0with the U.S.\u00a0in order to\u00a0provide it with a cheap supply of dollars that could back the UAE dirham.\u00a0Currency swaps are\u00a0agreements between two parties to exchange one currency for another at a preset rate over a given period.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Although the UAE\u00a0holds\u00a0nearly $300 billion\u00a0in foreign exchange reserves and around $2.5 trillion in sovereign wealth,\u00a0that money has\u00a0largely been\u00a0earmarked\u00a0for\u00a0economic diversification.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Al Zeyoudi made clear that the currency swap request is not motivated by any financial distress, but rather by\u00a0joining\u202fan elite club with access to Federal Reserve liquidity.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\u201cBeing part of that group means that transactions\u2026 trade, investments between both nations reach\u00a0\u2060a level where that swap is highly needed,\u201d he said. \u201cSo\u00a0it is an elite matter, it is not about bailing out.\u201d<\/p>\n

The U.S. Federal Reserve has permanent standing central bank currency swap lines with five other major central banks\u2014the Bank of Canada, \u200cthe\u00a0\u2060Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Bank of\u00a0England,\u00a0and the Swiss National Bank.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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It\u2019s\u00a0a different story for Bahrain.\u00a0<\/p>\n

On 3 June, the kingdom became the first Gulf sovereign to issue debt since the start of the U.S.-Iran war when it raised $1 billion through a 10-year USD bond.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Bahraini bonds came under pressure after the outbreak of the war in February but recovered by mid-April after the UAE extended a\u00a0$5.4\u00a0billion swap line\u00a0to the kingdom.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The swap line to Bahrain was expected to ease pressure on its foreign exchange reserves. However, data published by the Central Bank of Bahrain shows that its\u00a0\u00a0month-on-month\u00a0to $1.5bn at the end of May.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Excluding a brief\u00a0COVID-induced dip in April 2020, reserves are now at their lowest level on record which may account for why the GCC state decided to issue a bond earlier this month.<\/p>\n

As the only GCC state not rated investment-grade by the three rating agencies, Bahrain\u00a0remains\u00a0the market most vulnerable to a continued tightness in global liquidity.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Higher funding costs typically lead to lower risk appetite,\u00a0ultimately\u00a0making\u00a0investors more selective about which GCC issuers they buy into.<\/p>\n

But while higher-rated sovereign and quasi-sovereign issuers stand in better stead today, limited investor depth\u00a0remains\u00a0a key structural constraint to the development of all the Gulf markets over the longer-term.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cObviously, more recently\u00a0we\u2019ve\u00a0had fresh geopolitical risk and other issues. But assuming all these things die down, the size of these markets is still the biggest hindrance to getting\u00a0substantial\u00a0buy-in,\u201d said Zangana.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe lack of liquidity really hurts\u00a0them\u00a0when large international investors come along and say that they want to invest proportionally, but it\u2019s just not liquid enough, so it\u2019s too risky for them.\u201d<\/p>\n

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The easing of geopolitical tensions has\u00a0fueled\u00a0a surge in GCC bond and sukuk issuance. But\u00a0with the Federal Reserve expected to keep rates on hold,\u00a0tight dollar liquidity\u00a0remains\u00a0a stubborn headwind\u00a0to\u00a0future recovery.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2540,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[359],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2541","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bonds"],"yoast_head":"\nGCC debt markets have rallied since the ceasefire, but tight liquidity remains a key hurdle\u00a0 - Cross Country Moving Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2541\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"GCC debt markets have rallied since the ceasefire, but tight liquidity remains a key hurdle\u00a0 - Cross Country Moving Team\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The easing of geopolitical tensions has\u00a0fueled\u00a0a surge in GCC bond and sukuk issuance. 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