{"id":2687,"date":"2026-07-02T20:14:36","date_gmt":"2026-07-02T20:14:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2687"},"modified":"2026-07-02T20:14:36","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T20:14:36","slug":"michael-burry-just-shorted-caterpillars-172-ai-rally-one-analyst-says-his-bet-wont-even-matter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2687","title":{"rendered":"Michael Burry just shorted Caterpillar\u2019s 172% AI rally. One analyst says his bet won\u2019t even matter"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Burry, the former hedge fund manager who famously predicted the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and earned hundreds of millions of dollars for his investors in the process, said Caterpillar\u2019s stock is now overvalued after a run-up that has seen its stock soar by more than 100% over the past year.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2685\">AI\u2019s $2.2 trillion deficit fix is already half fake, economists say<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u201cCaterpillar jumped out at me,\u201d Burry wrote in a Substack post this week. \u201cI have never shorted Caterpillar. It has always done great for me on the long side in the past.\u201d<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Times have changed. The investor said he shorted Caterpillar at $1,060.98 per share Tuesday. By Wednesday, Caterpillar shares had closed down nearly 7%. As of Thursday, shares fell by as much as 4%, hitting their lowest point since the middle of June at about $949 per share.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Yet, not everyone agrees with Burry\u2019s call. Sergey Glinyanov, a senior analyst at Freedom Broker who covers Caterpillar, told <em>Fortune<\/em> in an email that Burry\u2019s short position isn\u2019t likely to affect the stock at all. What the famed investor is missing is that Caterpillar\u2019s share price isn\u2019t surging because of AI hype, he said.<\/p>\n<p>Glinyanov told <em>Fortune<\/em> that, in fact, investors are rewarding the company because it is benefiting from a fundamental shift in infrastructure spending.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA structural theme is emerging,\u201d Glinyanov told Fortune, pointing to a growing demand for on-site power systems, as AI data centers look for alternatives to an aging electrical grid that cannot always keep up with soaring energy needs.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>As developers build bigger and bigger AI campuses, they are increasingly seeking out the diesel and natural\u2011gas generator power systems that Caterpillar sells to secure reliable power. The company\u2019s positioning in this area sets it up to capture a larger share of that spending, Glinyanov argues.<\/p>\n<p>As AI has propelled chipmakers like Nvidia to record highs, investors have also lifted the shares of other businesses that may benefit from hyperscalers and developers\u2019 wave of spending as they scramble to build up data centers. These companies, including GE Vernova, which specializes in power generation, and Ohio-based Vertiv, which provides advanced cooling systems have emerged as a popular way to bet on the AI revolution without buying chipmakers directly. Shares of GE Vernova are up more than 60% year-to-date, while shares of Vertiv are up 70% over the same period.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2683\">The sports economy is unaffordable at the bar, let alone the stadium<\/a><\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Yet, investors are betting their money that Caterpillar will be among the biggest beneficiaries. The company\u2019s stock had climbed about 172% over the past 12 months and more than 77% this year alone before Burry disclosed his position. Its price-to-sales ratio\u2014a measure of how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of revenue\u2014is now at its highest level in three decades, he added.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>It\u2019s this run-up that has Burry betting the stock is overvalued. Yet his recent short against the company also builds on his broader belief that the market is in an AI bubble. In May, Burry said the market was \u201cfeeling like the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble.\u201d Along with his Caterpillar short, the investor also said he had refreshed his bet against the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX),  which tracks semiconductor companies, and had taken positions against Tesla and Nvidia.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>It\u2019s unclear, of course, whether Burry or Glinyanov will ultimately be proven right.<\/p>\n<p>Glinyanov said the company\u2019s traditional business of selling and renting heavy machinery remains healthy, with dealer inventories improving and retail demand holding up. The combination of consistency in its traditional business and its growing exposure to AI-related power infrastructure has contributed to the stock\u2019s premium value, he said. The company\u2019 strong results from the first quarter, which saw sales jump 22% year-over-year to $17.4 billion and beat Wall Street expectations, adds to his argument.<\/p>\n<p>Even so, Glinyanov allowed that Caterpillar\u2019s premium valuation ultimately depends on the biggest AI companies continuing to spend aggressively on new data centers and power infrastructure.<\/p>\n<p>His firm\u2019s price target for the company is $910, indicating a \u201cpotential near\u2011term pullback,\u201d he said. If hyperscalers quickly pull back on their massive data center investments, some of the optimism surrounding Caterpillar could fade just as quickly.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u201cShould we observe deterioration in hyperscalers\u2019 fundamentals\u2014particularly cash flow generation or debt burden\u2014multiples could face a meaningful pullback,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2681\">Trump trots out the C-word \u2014\u00a0communism \u2014\u00a0not getting the memo that capitalism has been largely discredited with Gen Z<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Burry says it is one of the market&#8217;s most overvalued AI trades\u2014but an analyst argues a structural shift in data-center power demand is behind the rise.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[372],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2687","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock-prices"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Michael Burry just shorted Caterpillar\u2019s 172% AI rally. One analyst says his bet won\u2019t even matter - Cross Country Moving Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2687\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Michael Burry just shorted Caterpillar\u2019s 172% AI rally. One analyst says his bet won\u2019t even matter - Cross Country Moving Team\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Burry says it is one of the market&#039;s most overvalued AI trades\u2014but an analyst argues a structural shift in data-center power demand is behind the rise.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2687\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Cross Country Moving Team\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-07-02T20:14:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\\\/?p=2687#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\\\/?p=2687\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/1b8121bfb9a1c55d1fff3fca675fceaa\"},\"headline\":\"Michael Burry just shorted Caterpillar\u2019s 172% AI rally. 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