{"id":2730,"date":"2026-07-03T12:11:22","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T12:11:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2730"},"modified":"2026-07-03T12:11:22","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T12:11:22","slug":"inside-the-mind-of-kevin-warsh-as-told-by-his-former-boss-condoleezza-rice-his-college-friend-and-his-closest-partner-during-the-financial-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2730","title":{"rendered":"Inside the mind of Kevin Warsh: As told by his former boss Condoleezza Rice, his college friend, and his closest partner during the financial crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Any insight into the enigma that is Warsh, the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, is of use to Wall Street and economists around the world. Warsh\u2019s voice sets the tone CEOs listen to before making their biggest borrowing bets, that foreign investors study for details on the trajectory of the U.S. economy, and that consumers rely on to strengthen the value of their wallets.<\/p>\n

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Warsh\u2019s tentative first steps in the role are being scrutinized perhaps more than any Fed chair in history. His appointment comes after unprecedented political attacks on the Fed from the White House during the second Trump administration, leading many to fear he is either the Oval Office\u2019s \u201csock puppet\u201d or lacks the backbone to stand up for vital Fed independence. Wall Street analysts also lament his stance on forward guidance (or lack thereof), saying its reduction undoes transparency at the central bank.<\/p>\n

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Everyone wants to know what Warsh is thinking, though Trump\u2019s nominee has made it clear he\u2019s not yet ready to show his cards. But a handful of people know how<\/em> Warsh thinks. Those who have orbited his inner circle say Warsh\u2019s depthless curiosity, strong interpersonal skills, and his ability to build accord have primed him to step into the central bank at what is, by his own definition, a moment \u201camong the most consequential in our nation\u2019s history.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI think he\u2019s very well equipped in terms of his native abilities and the way he relates to people,\u201d Donald Kohn, former Governor and later Vice Chairman of Governors at the Federal Reserve, tells Fortune<\/em>. \u201cHe\u2019s acquired a lot of economics over the years in the Fed and at Hoover, hanging out with some very good economists.\u201d<\/p>\n

The native New Yorker has won over cynics before, his peers tell Fortune<\/em>. And while his CV now boasts the gongs expected of a central bank chairman, it\u2019s his social fluency that could see the Fed emerge from a battering political storm stronger than it entered.<\/p>\n

Warsh\u2019s character<\/h2>\n

Few people have worked with Warsh as consistently as his mentor and close friend Rice\u2014indeed, he told the Senate Banking Committee hearing during his confirmation trial that it is unlikely he would be sitting before them without the guidance of Rice, who now serves as Hoover Institution director.<\/p>\n

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The duo met as student and teacher, and became peers in D.C. Rice was the national security advisor to President George W. Bush from 2001 until she became his Secretary of State in 2005, while Warsh served as special assistant to the president for economic policy and executive secretary of the National Economic Council from 2002 until 2006, when he joined the Fed as a governor. Later, they reunited at Stanford as colleagues.<\/p>\n

\u201cI always said with Kevin, it wasn\u2019t the first answer.\u00a0He wanted the second and third-order answers,\u201d Rice tells Fortune<\/em>. \u201cI loved having students like that, who were not just interested in getting what they needed for the test. They were curious beyond that and wanted to understand something more deeply.\u201d<\/p>\n

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At Stanford, Warsh brushed shoulders with the likes of Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman and four-time federal cabinet member George Shultz. Warsh \u201cfit right in\u201d with this academic cohort, Rice added, courtesy of \u201cdeep curiosity\u201d that has been a permanent feature throughout their interactions.<\/p>\n

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Warsh will need that curiosity in the current economic environment, particularly when so much hinges on the promise of AI. Prominent voices fear that the end result of the transformative technology is a job bloodbath and national security catastrophes, while others believe a new era of productivity is ready to be unlocked, with society living longer and healthier lives. <\/p>\n

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Every central banker is weighing the balance of these risks, though with Big Tech on his doorstep, Warsh will need to be all the more discerning in both his interpretation of the outlook and the delivery of his analysis.<\/p>\n

But there are critics who say Warsh doesn\u2019t always dig deep enough, particularly when sharing his worldview publicly. The definiteness of his statement: \u201cI don\u2019t believe in forward guidance,\u201d for example, was so surprising to notable Fed alum Claudia Sahm that she told Fortune<\/em>: \u201cI almost fell out of my chair.\u201d Another source shared similar concern, saying Warsh has shown aversion to getting into the macroeconomic weeds when he\u2019s on the record.<\/p>\n

This criticism may belie a bid to make complex topics more easily accessible to audiences ranging from Wall Street to the man on the street. \u201cKevin can go at two different speeds,\u201d says Rice. \u201cHe can go into a class at the business school, and when you\u2019re teaching, you have to do it in pretty straightforward ways, and he\u2019s very good at that, and with public audiences, he\u2019s very good at that.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cBut nobody should think that Kevin\u2019s understanding or views of the economy are simplistic.\u00a0He\u2019s got very deep knowledge and can more than hold his own with these economists who spent their lives studying it.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Warsh under pressure<\/h2>\n

Years after joining the Fed, Warsh found himself in a level of hot water few central bankers have experienced: he shouldered responsibility for navigating the 2008 financial crisis as one of three top decision-makers at the Fed, alongside then-chairman Ben Bernanke and the contemporary Vice Chair of the Board of Governors, Donald Kohn.<\/p>\n

Kohn had worked in the Federal Reserve system for the better part of three decades when a fresh-faced Warsh, the youngest Board Governor in history, arrived on Capitol Hill. In fact, Kohn\u2019s work for the Kansas City Fed began the year his future colleague was born.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, Kohn was surprised by how accurately Warsh could read a group. Warsh was a man of good humor, a well-timed pop culture reference, and calm demeanor, Kohn tells Fortune<\/em>.<\/p>\n

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\u201cWhen I was in charge of the committee on the reserve banks, one of the things we did was go around to six of the reserve banks every year and talk to the boards of directors, meet with the staff and evaluate where things were,\u201d Kohn recalls. \u201cKevin and I started playing a game, where [we would] come out of these meetings and I would ask him: \u2018So, what do you make of the people you just met?\u2019 and he nailed so many people.<\/p>\n

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\u201cThis guy had spent two hours with a group of people and he had the insight into them that I had acquired over a number of years. I was very impressed with his ability to read people, to figure out which people had something to contribute and which maybe didn\u2019t have so much to contribute, his basic intelligence but also his emotional intelligence, and his ability to relate to people.\u201d<\/p>\n

Kohn and Warsh\u2019s partnership endured the era\u2019s enormous pressure. In neighboring offices during the height of the financial crisis, Warsh and Kohn would make daily pilgrimages to Bernanke\u2019s office\u2014weekends or otherwise\u2014to go over the day\u2019s developments and plan for the next. Friday afternoons were spent with the Comptroller of the Currency, John Dugan, Treasury Under Secretary Robert Steele, and Under Secretary for International Affairs, Dave McCormick, who\u2019s now a U.S. senator.<\/p>\n

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Warsh shone in these teams, says Kohn: He was a hard worker, pleasant, helpful, and a man who \u201cdidn\u2019t mince words.\u201d But perhaps his most useful\u2014and rare\u2014trait was the combination of his people skills and his financial background, courtesy of his early career at Morgan Stanley. Having earned a law degree from Harvard, Warsh joined the investment bank\u2019s mergers and acquisitions department in 1995, the nucleus where negotiation meets financial expertise.<\/p>\n

Bringing that insight to the Fed was timely, Kohn explained: \u201cKevin was especially important as a liaison with the financial sector. We would get information from people who would call and say, \u2018This horrible thing is happening, that horrible thing is happening, we need help,\u2019 \u2026 and he could help us because he knew these people and read them so well.<\/p>\n

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\u201cHe helped us understand what we were hearing and who we should listen to very carefully because they were smart and honest and were conveying information, and who maybe would be arguing their book.\u201d<\/p>\n

Warsh has continued to build private sector insight after leaving the central bank: He became a partner at Duquesne Family Office, led by legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller, and served on the boards of UPS and global commerce giant Coupang.<\/p>\n

Warsh\u2019s people skills mean he \u201cthinks more like a CEO than a Fed chair,\u201d Jerry Yang, the co-founder of Yahoo! Inc. and a longtime friend of the central bank chairman, tells Fortune<\/em>. The pair met in a computer lab at Stanford and became close friends when Warsh would later visit Silicon Valley in his capacity as an investor. Policy \u201cis obviously important, but the way he comes at [it] is very human, and it\u2019s about the people that work there doing their best to be excellent, rather than some output that people want to put a box on,\u201d Yang says. \u201cSo that\u2019s what\u2019s refreshing and different \u2026 Kevin just really thinks about a kind of inside out [approach]: \u2018What do we have? What is our job? What would be excellent?\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

Warsh and consensus<\/h2>\n

The Fed Chairman\u2019s job may be the pinnacle of economic power, but day-to-day, it\u2019s a lot of herding cats.The Fed chair needs to corral staff in a new direction and muster a consensus from Federal Open Market Committee members.<\/p>\n

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The goal of the job is not being proved right\u2014rather, it is landing on the correct outcome for the central bank and, by proxy, for the economy. The basics of the role (maximising monetary policy conditions for low inflation and full employment) should ideally be agreed upon by the FOMC as broadly as possible, giving markets confidence in its policy stance. But to deliver the \u201cnew chapter\u201d and \u201cfresh perspective\u201d Warsh has promised, he\u2019ll need unequivocal buy-in from those within the walls of the central bank. Warsh has been positive in the early days, lauding his colleagues\u2019 \u201cnew ideas, new thinking, and genuine interest in moving the Fed forward.\u201d<\/p>\n

Warsh\u2019s recent time at Hoover has been good practice, said Dr. Rice: \u201cHe\u2019s led policy teams at Hoover \u2026 it\u2019s not so easy to get a group of academics to steer in the same direction.\u00a0He\u2019s been very good at that.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen I say somebody\u2019s patient, it can come across as: \u2018Well, if you\u2019re chairman of the Fed or Secretary of State, do you really want to be patient?\u2019 But [in Warsh] there\u2019s a willingness to engage and to not shortcut people when they\u2019re trying to get to a common position.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody\u2019s, says Warsh always let him make his case. The two men served together on the economic advisory board to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office in 2025, and Zandi told Fortune<\/em> that while \u201cmy views on policy have often differed from his, I always felt he gave mine a fair hearing.\u201d<\/p>\n

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And while one might expect a flattering perspective from Warsh\u2019s allies, even a former colleague who said Warsh wouldn\u2019t be their first choice to lead the Fed told Fortune<\/em> they believe he has the institution\u2019s best interests at heart, that he would work tirelessly, and that he would compromise if it meant the central bank was stronger for it. <\/p>\n

\u201cHe\u2019s very mission-driven; he understands what the Federal Reserve is supposed to do and not to do, and I think he wants to really set those principles in the early days,\u201d Yang says. \u201cHe wants to build a Fed that really stands the test of time.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more Police use tear gas and pepper spray against Albanians protesting Trump family plans to develop unspoiled island into a luxury resort<\/a><\/p>\n

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