{"id":2734,"date":"2026-07-03T13:11:18","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T13:11:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2734"},"modified":"2026-07-03T13:11:18","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T13:11:18","slug":"we-are-in-a-new-era-trumps-bombshell-2-2-billion-income-haul-the-big-player-theory-and-what-happens-when-the-president-becomes-the-bubble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2734","title":{"rendered":"\u2018We are in a new era\u2019: Trump\u2019s bombshell $2.2 billion income haul, the \u2018Big Player Theory\u2019 and what happens when the president becomes the bubble"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u201cI think we\u2019re in a new era,\u201d Steve Hanke, the so-called \u201cMoney Doctor\u201d told Fortune<\/em>. The Johns Hopkins economist, a veteran advisor on monetary policy to several administrations (including the Trump White House), told Fortune<\/em> that when he saw the big income disclosure, he immediately flashed onto \u201cthe economics of big players.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more I argued with the father of open source for 2 years.\u00a0Now the AI fight is the same \u2014\u00a0only bigger<\/a><\/p>\n

An expert in \u201cdollarization\u201d who has advised Asian, Eastern European, and South American governments, Hanke has spent decades studying market manipulation in developing countries and now sees the same dynamics playing out in Washington. A big player, in his formulation, is someone\u2014a central bank head, a finance minister, or a president\u2014big enough to independently move supply, demand, and market expectations.<\/p>\n

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Three characteristics define the phenomenon, according to both Hanke and Roger Koppl, the Syracuse University professor who originated the theory decades ago: the actor is big enough to shift markets, is not disciplined by profit and loss the way ordinary firms are, and operates by discretion rather than any knowable rule. A big player \u201cintroduces personality into markets,\u201d Koppl said, and in so doing, \u201ccorrodes our ability to form reasonable expectations of the future.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Lineage<\/h2>\n

Both Hanke and Koppl frame big player dynamics as a broader structural shift rather than any single politician\u2019s idiosyncrasy. Hanke pointed to European defense stocks soaring on rhetoric from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and to rare-earth market moves tied to Chinese leadership statements, as parallel examples. But Koppl traced a distinctly American lineage through a chain of precedents dating back more than 50 years, each one further eroding the market discipline that profit-and-loss accountability is supposed to provide.<\/p>\n

He began with Richard Nixon as the source of two foundational ruptures that arrived almost simultaneously. The first: Nixon\u2019s 1971 engineering of the federal bailout of Lockheed, the moment the U.S. government first signaled it would step in to rescue a large, politically significant corporation from the consequences of its own failure\u2014establishing that certain firms were too important to be allowed to fail on market terms. The second, occurring the same year: Nixon\u2019s decision to sever the dollar\u2019s last remaining link to gold, closing the \u201cgold window\u201d that had constrained U.S. monetary policy since Bretton Woods.<\/p>\n

Without a gold anchor, Koppl argued, \u201cthere\u2019s no gold snapback on the money supply\u201d\u2014meaning the traditional mechanism that would have punished excessive credit expansion by draining reserves no longer applied. Together, these two 1971 decisions removed both the monetary constraint and the market constraint in the same year\u2014freeing government to intervene more freely, and freeing large firms to take on risk without the same fear of failure.<\/p>\n

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From there, the government\u2019s handling of Continental Illinois in the early 1980s produced the phrase \u201ctoo big to fail.\u201d Decades later, under Attorney General Eric Holder, the country arrived at \u201ctoo big to jail\u201d\u2014a reference to prosecutorial reluctance to bring serious criminal charges against major financial institutions after the 2008 crisis. The bipartisan dimension matters to Koppl. When Barack Obama declared \u201cI have a pen and a phone,\u201d he was articulating a vision of presidential action independent of congressional rules\u2014further evidence that discretionary executive power had become a bipartisan habit long before Trump. Each administration extended the range of action one president could take alone. Trump inherited the full accumulation.<\/p>\n

Koppl\u2019s ultimate point was not that Trump invented the phenomenon, but that he represents its logical endpoint after five decades of steady erosion. \u201cTrump has just elevated the level of big player intervention to a new high\u2014a new and very unfortunate high.\u201d<\/p>\n

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From fundamentals to \u2018noise\u2019<\/h2>\n

The mechanism, according to Hanke, works like this: once a big player enters the scene, signals about market fundamentals become unreliable, and traditional analysis\u2014discounting free cash flow to determine fair value\u2014gives way to what Fischer Black, co-creator of the foundational Black-Scholes valuation model, termed \u201cnoise trading\u201d in 1986. Noise trading is driven by rumors and hype rather than fundamentals or technicals, and it produces herding, or \u201cbandwagon\u201d behavior, in which investors stop analyzing independently and instead wait to see what signal the big player sends.<\/p>\n

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Hanke agreed that it is essentially a modern update of Charles Mackay\u2019s 1841 bubble classic, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds<\/em>. \u201cThat\u2019s exactly the point,\u201d he said, running through the history of famous financial panics. \u201cThe tulip bubble, the South Sea bubble\u2014all of those things qualify as noise trading.\u201d The infamous Mississippi Bubble was a classic example: John Law both invented many aspects of modern finance and swung entire global markets through force of personality, convincing the king of France to back a scheme disastrously divorced from fundamentals. Mackay himself did not take his own book\u2019s advice\u2014he lost his shirt in the railroad bubble of the Victorian era, a detail that says something about the durability of the phenomenon he documented.<\/p>\n

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Hanke argued that discretionary policymaking \u201cdiverts entrepreneurial activity and attention away from economic fundamentals \u2026 and towards politics and how they might affect market sentiment.\u201d The consequence: \u201cskill is devalued. Luck counts for more.\u201d Money managers, judged on relative rather than absolute performance, are prone to joining the herd. \u201cIf you go down and so does everyone else,\u201d Hanke said, \u201cyou probably won\u2019t receive a pink slip.\u201d<\/p>\n

Big player behavior has been clear to many observers for some time: an Iran strike occurring 33 minutes after a Friday market close\u2014timed to avoid rattling investors before the weekend, with markets calmed again by Sunday reports of renewed diplomacy. Outsized trades executed just ahead of Trump\u2019s Truth Social posts on Gulf oil policy have also drawn scrutiny as potential examples of insider trading.<\/p>\n

The latest $2.2 billion disclosure\u2014and especially the crypto windfall\u2014fits the same pattern, according to Koppl. \u201cIn a world of big players, the value of such an asset may depend on the precise actions of the big player and not on any underlying supply and demand for crypto services,\u201d Koppl said, adding that this \u201clooks to be what happened in the Trump case, that he was able to play on his name and on market timing as a big player to profit in a way that had nothing to do with underlying supply and demand.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Legal Vacuum<\/h2>\n

What makes this instance of big player behavior different from historical precedent, according to Eric Talley, a professor at Columbia Law School, is the near-total legal accountability vacuum surrounding the presidency itself. In other words, Trump\u2019s huge income haul in 2025 is not technically illegal.<\/p>\n

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While a broad federal statute (18 U.S.C. \u00a7 208) bars executive officials\u2014Cabinet members such as Marco Rubio or Pete Hegseth\u2014from participating in matters where they hold financial interests, that criminal prohibition explicitly exempts the president and vice president. The likely rationale, Talley said, was to let a president act decisively in a crisis without conflict-of-interest reviews slowing him down. By the same token, though, if the president hasn\u2019t committed to be \u201csqueaky clean\u201d on such an issue, that statute \u201cprovides an exception you could drive a truck through.\u201d In this case, he added wryly, \u201cyou\u2019ve got a truck loaded with an ornamental arch monument.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more Inside the mind of Kevin Warsh: As told by his former boss Condoleezza Rice, his college friend, and his closest partner during the financial crisis<\/a><\/p>\n

Talley touched on the directly relevant constitutional emoluments clause \u2014 which technically bars government officials from profiting off foreign governments\u2014citing the Qatari-gifted Air Force One as a \u201ctextbook\u201d violation and noting the outsized role that Saudi funds played in Trump\u2019s 2025 income statement. There\u2019s just a problem, he added: the clause has proven \u201cstubbornly difficult to enforce,\u201d with first-term lawsuits mooted once Trump left office. He added that Trump\u2019s original claim of a \u201cblind trust\u201d never actually passed the legal smell test, since a close relative managed it \u2014and said he wasn\u2019t actually sure if Trump has committed to any kind of blind trust in his second term.<\/p>\n

One of the president\u2019s sons came to his defense, as Eric Trump argued that his father\u2019s investment holdings \u201care maintained exclusively in fully discretionary accounts managed by independent third-party financial institutions.\u201d He denied that the president, his family and The Trump Organization has any role in selecting, directing, approving, influencing or soliciting specific investments.<\/p>\n

That legal accountability gap has produced what Yale management professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld calls an unprecedented breakdown in institutional response. Sonnenfeld told Fortune<\/em> that the scale of the conflicts revealed in Trump\u2019s disclosures runs \u201cmany thousand times beyond the worst suspicions ascribed to Hunter Biden,\u201d calling the resulting \u201chypocrisy\u2026 off the charts\u201d and the \u201cdegradation of public trust\u2026 unrivaled.\u201d<\/p>\n

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What strikes Sonnenfeld most, however, is not the conduct itself but the silence surrounding it. He pointed to the Republican-controlled Senate as emblematic. His own Yale CEO caucus has famously featured executives and politicians behind closed doors expressing near unanimous disagreement with Trump\u2019s actions, matched with on-the-record silence. On the latest disclosures, he predicted, \u201cthey\u2019ll say it needs to be investigated \u2026 but they\u2019re not commenting [publicly], they\u2019re afraid of the vindictiveness of the president.\u201d<\/p>\n

Sonnenfeld extended that critique well beyond Washington, asking pointedly, \u201cwhere are the trade unions, where are the attorneys general from the blue states? Where are the clergy?\u201d\u2014singling out the pope as \u201cone of the few\u201d institutional voices willing to speak. Trade unions, in his assessment, are \u201cafraid of their own membership, which they think might be MAGA or some percentage of them,\u201d and so are \u201cshowing complicity through complacency.\u201d The influence of the big player, of course, is not just a financial phenomenon.<\/p>\n

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Implications for Bubbles and Crashes<\/h2>\n

Both Hanke and Koppl agreed that the big player dynamic increases market volatility and the frequency of bubbles. \u201cWe\u2019re in a bubble,\u201d Hanke said bluntly, arguing that the conclusion is undeniable by nearly every standard metric: price-to-sales ratios, price-to-earnings ratios, market-cap-to-GDP. The problem is that economists have never figured out when and why bubbles pop, with the only reliable signal being monetary tightening\u2014which is why, in his view, Trump has pushed hard for the Federal Reserve to keep loosening policy.<\/p>\n

Koppl\u2019s diagnosis runs deeper\u2014and is less reassuring than it might first appear. \u201cPeople are very excited about AI, and think there\u2019s going to be an AI bubble that bursts, and they may be right,\u201d he said. \u201cMany of my friends are worried that we\u2019re in this huge bubble that\u2019s going to burst,\u201d he added. \u201cI\u2019m worried too, but I also know that we live in a world where bubbles don\u2019t have to burst, because failing firms, if they\u2019re big enough, will just be propped up by the state.\u201d<\/p>\n

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The consequence, in his telling, is not stability but permanent misallocation. \u201cThese people are playing with other people\u2019s money, ultimately\u2014the taxpayers\u2019 money. Heads, I win, tails, you lose. So you have a lot of risky investments that maybe don\u2019t really make economic sense, and if they actually pan out, great. If they don\u2019t, well, that\u2019s why we have bailouts.\u201d<\/p>\n

The result is what Koppl called, coining the phrase on the spot, a condition of \u201caugmented ignorance\u201d\u2014one in which the big player\u2019s opacity makes it rational for companies to stop searching for better products and start cultivating better relationships with the federal government. He used the example of Claude to illustrate his point: \u201cClaude doesn\u2019t know what Donald Trump\u2019s gonna do tomorrow any more than I do\u2026 neither Claude nor Koppl can know what Donald Trump\u2019s gonna do tomorrow, because neither of us can somehow peer into his soul and know what his humors will lead him to tomorrow. That\u2019s the problem with the big player. You need magical knowledge to really know what the big player\u2019s going to do.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cRather than seeking out a better mousetrap,\u201d he argued, \u201cwe\u2019re seeking a better relationship with the federal government.\u201d Supply and demand no longer reassert themselves the way they once did. \u201cIn my view,\u201d he said, \u201cthat\u2019s a great shame and a great cause of waste and misallocated resources.\u201d<\/p>\n

Second, and more interesting: when explaining why the big player creates \u201caugmented ignorance,\u201d he used Claude as the illustration. \u201cClaude doesn\u2019t know what Donald Trump\u2019s gonna do tomorrow any more than I do\u2026 neither Claude nor Koppl can know what Donald Trump\u2019s gonna do tomorrow, because neither of us can somehow peer into his soul and know what his humors will lead him to tomorrow. That\u2019s the problem with the big player. You need magical knowledge to really know what the big player\u2019s gonna do.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

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The Paradox at the Center<\/h2>\n

The structural novelty Talley identifies is this: there have always been big players\u2014J.P. Morgan, Henry Ford, Elon Musk. What\u2019s different now is that the big player is also the person directly making the decisions in government. The White House disputes the characterization\u2014Eric Trump has said the president has no role in directing specific investments, but Talley\u2019s point is structural, like Koppl\u2019s: whether or not Trump is making discrete calls, a president whose financial interests are intertwined with market-moving decisions removes the separation that accountability requires.<\/p>\n

Once markets stop pricing free cash flow and start pricing a president\u2019s next move, the bubble stops behaving like a discrete event with a beginning and an end, and starts behaving like a permanent condition. Talley\u2019s closing caution supplies the one variable that could break the spell: \u201cpolitical markets can be fickle,\u201d and those \u201cplaying along with that game could get dragged down by it\u201d if Trump\u2019s political fortunes suddenly shift.<\/p>\n

A housing bubble ends when housing prices fall to meet reality. A Trump bubble, by this logic, can only be paused, deferred, or transferred to whatever object of belief comes after him\u2014because there is simply no mechanism right now, legal or civic, positioned to force the correction.<\/p>\n

Read more Organized crime is building an AI hardware cargo theft economy: \u2018The economics have become just crazy from the criminal opportunistic perspective\u2019<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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