{"id":275,"date":"2026-05-29T15:43:14","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T15:43:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=275"},"modified":"2026-05-29T15:43:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-29T15:43:14","slug":"trump-may-be-a-lame-duck-even-before-the-midterms-he-primaried-all-the-senators-whose-votes-he-needs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=275","title":{"rendered":"Trump may be a lame duck even before the midterms\u2014he primaried all the senators whose votes he needs"},"content":{"rendered":"
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But\u00a0progress stalled\u00a0over concerns about the inclusion of White House ballroom security funding in the package and the creation of\u00a0a $1.8 billion fund\u00a0to finance claims of government mistreatment. The stumble has not only delayed action on a top GOP priority but also is raising questions about other parts of the party\u2019s legislative agenda, including whether Republicans can enact another catchall, party-line bill referred to in Washington parlance as \u201cReconciliation 3.0.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Republicans have spent recent weeks laying the groundwork for such a bill, which they hope will serve as a final sales pitch to voters going into the midterms.<\/p>\n

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Speaker Mike Johnson\u00a0and Majority Leader Steve Scalise, both of Louisiana, have been meeting with committee and caucus chairs to screen for proposals that have strong buy-in from the rank and file. They are aiming to follow up on last summer\u2019s big\u00a0tax and spending cuts bill\u00a0with a measure that would increase Pentagon spending by hundreds of billions of dollars and would include cuts elsewhere to help pay for it, which they are couching as tackling\u00a0government waste and fraud.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a high-stakes gambit in an election year. Success will reinforce the GOP\u2019s message of being able to deliver on legislative priorities. Failure will underscore some of the Republican fractures under Trump that could leave voters seeking an alternative.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a look at the coming debate as Republicans hope to pass a bill before leaving for their August recess.<\/p>\n

House Republicans sound confident<\/h4>\n

Johnson navigated the House GOP\u2019s slim majority in passing Trump\u2019s tax and spending cuts bill last summer.\u00a0The vote\u00a0was 218-214. At the time, Republicans could afford to lose three votes from within their ranks. They lost just two.<\/p>\n

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They\u2019ll have a thin margin of error again, but Johnson said he\u2019s even more confident of success this time around.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt will be just as beautiful, but not as big, so it\u2019ll have less provisions and less things to get everybody to yes on,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

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Rep. Jodey Arrington, chairman of the House Budget Committee, said Republicans are just as motivated as they were last year on the tax cuts bill.<\/p>\n

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\u201cThis one, I think you\u2019ll have potentially money to support our troops in conflict,\u201d said Arrington, of Texas. \u201cI can\u2019t imagine a Republican not wanting to support our troops and military community in a time of conflict.\u201d<\/p>\n

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The Trump administration has called on Republicans to provide\u00a0$350 billion to defense\u00a0through a reconciliation bill.<\/p>\n

But Rep. Brendan Boyle, the lead Democrat on the House Budget Committee, said Republicans will have a more difficult path than they did with Trump\u2019s big tax and spending cuts bill.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think it will be for a couple of reasons. First is the president\u2019s approval rating. He was at a much higher level a year ago than he is right now,\u201d said Boyle, of Pennsylvania. \u201cNumber 2, we are much closer to the November midterm elections. So, if you\u2019re one of a dozen or a couple dozen House Republicans who are really vulnerable in a swing district, you have to think even more carefully about voting for something that has even more health care cuts in it.\u201d<\/p>\n

The tax cuts bill that passed last summer reduced spending on Medicaid by more than $900 billion over a decade. It also reduced spending on nutrition assistance by about $187 billion over a decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office.<\/p>\n

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Caution in the Senate<\/h4>\n

Senate Majority Leader John Thune called a third reconciliation bill to get around the filibuster a \u201cpotential option,\u201d hardly a ringing endorsement.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe haven\u2019t made any commitments on that, but we\u2019re hearing people out,\u201d said Thune, of South Dakota.<\/p>\n

Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina said lawmakers should know what will be in the bill before the legislative process begins. That way, it\u2019s less likely to unravel.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf it just becomes another exercise where you\u2019re not really sure what\u2019s going to be the end product, then I think it\u2019s a mistake even to pursue it,\u201d Tillis said. \u201cWe ought to be smart about it if we do a third one, but it is kind of a moonshot.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska said she worried about the strategy.<\/p>\n

\u201cA third reconciliation may or may not happen. I\u2019m just being direct,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

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Little time and fractured relations<\/h4>\n

The House is expected to be in session for about 24 more days before it breaks for its August recess. That leaves little time to pass a budget blueprint in both chambers, which is the first hurdle for pursuing party-line tax and spending bills. Committees would also have to wrap up their work advancing their portions of the legislation.<\/p>\n

Another hurdle could be Trump\u2019s treatment of current senators whose votes he will need for any package to become law. Trump endorsed opponents of two senators who faced stiff primary challenges and eventually lost \u2014\u00a0Sens. Bill Cassidy\u00a0of Louisiana and\u00a0John Cornyn\u00a0of Texas.<\/p>\n

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Cassidy has already shown more willingness to buck the president. Fresh off his\u00a0primary loss, he voted last week to advance a bill that seeks to force Trump to withdraw from\u00a0hostilities with Iran.<\/p>\n

What could make it into the bill<\/h4>\n

Lawmakers said they could tweak and resurrect some proposals that did not pass muster with the Senate parliamentarian for inclusion in last year\u2019s reconciliation bill. For example, Republicans tried to prevent states from providing Medicaid coverage for immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally.<\/p>\n

Rep. August Pfluger of Texas, chairman of the Republican Study Committee, said the bill should rest on three pillars, making the country more affordable and secure while reducing fraud.<\/p>\n

Among the group\u2019s recommendations is a proposal to eliminate the capital gains tax on the sale of homes to first-time homebuyers, which they say would incentivize the market, and a proposal to impose a 5% tax on funds sent by noncitizens back to their home countries.<\/p>\n

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Arrington said he would also like to tighten the rules for the earned income tax credit, a program that increases the financial reward for working but that also has a high rate of improper payments. He also called for prohibiting immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally from living in housing units financed by a housing tax credit paid to developers who construct and rehab affordable housing for renters.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s a lot more work to be done to build on what we did in the first one with Medicaid and SNAP (nutrition assistance), with respect to fraud,\u201d Arrington said.<\/p>\n

___<\/p>\n

Associated Press writers Mary Clare Jalonick and Stephen Groves contributed to this report.<\/p>\n

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