{"id":2766,"date":"2026-07-04T09:40:42","date_gmt":"2026-07-04T09:40:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2766"},"modified":"2026-07-04T09:40:42","modified_gmt":"2026-07-04T09:40:42","slug":"on-wall-street-analysts-increasingly-dont-believe-the-u-s-governments-misleading-job-numbers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2766","title":{"rendered":"On Wall Street, analysts increasingly don\u2019t believe the U.S. government\u2019s \u2018misleading\u2019 job numbers"},"content":{"rendered":"
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But this time, there was a number in the jobs data that, on its face, stands out as being implausible: The leisure and hospitality sector lost 61,000 jobs in June, the BLS reported, even though the U.S. is hosting the single largest sporting event on the planet\u2014the World Cup. <\/p>\n

Is it really likely that dozens of soccer matches, followed by hundreds of thousands of domestic fans and foreign tourists, somehow resulted in fewer people being employed in hotels, bars, and restaurants?<\/p>\n

Read more The World Cup is just now discovering Middle America\u2019s big heart. These Irish bingo kingpins built a $24 million business knowing it all along<\/a><\/p>\n

Pimco economist Tiffany Wilding said the sector \u201cwas actually expected to benefit from World Cup hiring.\u201d<\/p>\n

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RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas said in an email that the report should be taken \u201cwith a grain of salt.\u201d \u201cExpect an upward revision to the top-line June estimate when the July data is released,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

There is good evidence that the World Cup has juiced economic activity recently. This chart from Bank of America shows card spending was up 5.4% year-on-year over the group stage of the cup. \u201cThe boost is being particularly driven by \u2018non-locals\u2019 coming into the cities for the matches, whose spending was up 17.4%,\u201d BofA Institute\u2019s Liz Everett Krisberg and David Tinsley said in an email.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe U.S. employment report was a convenient reminder not to put too much emphasis onto a single unreliable data release,\u201d Paul Donovan of UBS said in an email this morning. \u201cThere were notable revisions, and the details showed swings in seasonal adjustments moving the figures in a rather maladjusted manner. The trends are still the same. In an uncertain policy environment, companies seem reluctant to hire, but are also not rushing to fire.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more The greatest startup in history: What we can learn from America\u2019s founders at today\u2019s AI frontier<\/a><\/p>\n

At EY-Parthenon, Chief Economist Gregory Daco was also taken aback by the weak hospitality number, although he stopped short of saying it might be wrong. \u201cThe biggest black eye in June came from the leisure and hospitality sector shedding 61k jobs\u2014the largest decline since the pandemic\u2014on weak seasonal hiring, despite the hype around the World Cup,\u201d he said in an email.<\/p>\n

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Overall, the U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, about half the number that was expected, the BLS reported yesterday. The Financial Times<\/em> suggested that the surprisingly weak hospitality numbers explain why the consensus estimate was wrong:\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThere may be a way to explain away the bad month, however. Employment in hospitality and leisure might have been expected to rise in June, in the run-up to the North American edition of the World Cup\u2026 But, strangely, the sector crashed hard, losing 61,000 jobs,\u201d Robert Armstrong wrote.<\/p>\n

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\u201cA statistical blip? It\u2019s possible, and if you take out the hospitality losses, we would be talking about a nice four-month trend.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more JPMorgan built a pipeline of female CEO candidates that was the envy of Wall Street. How did it fall apart?<\/a><\/p>\n

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The BLS was contacted for comment.<\/p>\n

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\u201cThese data are misleading and should be disregarded,\u201d Jamie Cox of Harris Financial Group says.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2765,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[312],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2766","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics"],"yoast_head":"\nOn Wall Street, analysts increasingly don\u2019t believe the U.S. government\u2019s \u2018misleading\u2019 job numbers - Cross Country Moving Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2766\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"On Wall Street, analysts increasingly don\u2019t believe the U.S. government\u2019s \u2018misleading\u2019 job numbers - 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