{"id":2933,"date":"2026-07-07T11:09:37","date_gmt":"2026-07-07T11:09:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2933"},"modified":"2026-07-07T11:09:37","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T11:09:37","slug":"chinas-birth-rate-just-hit-its-lowest-point-since-1949-and-trip-com-cofounder-james-liang-thinks-thats-a-threat-to-innovation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2933","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s birth rate just hit its lowest point since 1949\u2014and Trip.com cofounder James Liang thinks that\u2019s a threat to innovation"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>\u201cWe need more people to innovate. That is why population and having children is important,\u201d he said in an interview with <em>Fortune <\/em>earlier this year. \u201cIf we have a declining population, not only will our ability to innovate diminish, but we will lose our capacity to stay in control of innovation itself.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2931\">McKinsey Global Institute: Climate planning has prioritized floods. Heat demands equal attention<\/a><\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s part of a broader philosophy he\u2019s dubbed \u201cinnovationism,\u201d a tech-forward view of how society should be organized, and one that\u2019s closely related to his longtime academic focus on population and demographic change.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>In Liang\u2019s view, more people means more talent to put towards progress. \u201cAt the aggregate level, the amount of human resources put into research and development determines how much output you get in terms of patents and technological know-how,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This puts Liang at the intersection of two debates in Asia: Whether the region\u2019s economic dynamism can survive rapid demographic decline and what\u2014if anything\u2014governments can do to reverse it.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Liang has long been one of China\u2019s most outspoken, demographers. He was a critic of China\u2019s  \u201cOne Child Policy\u201d that limited families to just one child. Beijing eventually increased the limit to two children in 2015, then abolished the policy entirely in 2021.<\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s birth rate fell to 5.63 per 1,000 people last year, the lowest level since 1949. At current projections, the country\u2019s population will fall below 1.25 billion by the middle of the century.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Demographic decline isn\u2019t limited to China. Much of East Asia sits well below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman, the threshold needed to keep a population stable. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong are all moving into \u201csuper-aged\u201d status, when more than a fifth of the population is above 65.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Developing countries are also reporting falling birth rates. Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines have all fallen below replacement level. India, the world\u2019s most populous country, also has a total fertility rate of roughly 1.9 births per woman. (The world population isn\u2019t expected to peak until 2100)<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s becoming a global problem,\u201d Liang said. \u201cLast year, two-thirds of the world\u2019s population lived in countries where fertility rates are below replacement level.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Asian governments are trying to slow the decline with a wide array of policies, like extended parental leave, baby bonuses, and childcare subsidies. Some local governments in countries like Korea and China have even hosted dating events.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Success, where it exists, is slight: South Korea\u2019s fertility rate, for example, has edged upward for two consecutive years, rising from 0.72 children per woman in 2023 to 0.80 in 2025.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Liang sees these efforts as a good start, but argues that much more is needed. He estimated that every 1% of GDP spent on pro-family policies raises the fertility rate by just 0.1. To raise it by a full child, roughly what China or South Korea would need to do to approach stability, would require spending equivalent to 10% of GDP.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat sounds like a lot,\u201d Liang acknowledged. \u201cBut in China, it\u2019s about two years of economic growth.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Specifically, Liang supports cash transfers, which give younger people money and time to start families. He\u2019s also a fan of measures like subsidized daycare, flexible work arrangements, legalized surrogacy and, interestingly, reducing exam pressure.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u201cHighly intense systems, like college entrance exams in China or Korea, can suppress fertility,\u201d he said, noting that the anxiety of hyper-competitive education cultures pushes young people to delay or forgo starting a family.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2929\">Trump\u2019s request for a review of Folarin Balogun\u2019s red card has become a global test of  FIFA\u2019s political neutrality<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Trip.com Group, for its part, offers numerous childcare policies, including offering free taxis to pregnant employees, education stipends to new parents, and even subsidizing fertility treatments, like egg freezing, for its staff.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In 2023, the company offered employees a 10,000 yuan ($1,470) annual cash bonus per newborn child, paid every year until the fifth birthday. In 2025, the company expanded its childcare leave policy to cover parents of children up to age 18.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Demographers and economists have puzzled over the lack of correlation between greater childcare support and increased fertility.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Liang\u2019s views on how demographics connect to innovation and technological progress also aren\u2019t wholly accepted by the academic community.<\/p>\n<p>In a paper, after <em>Fortune\u2019<\/em>s interview with Liang, a team of economists led by Daron Acemoglu and David Autor found that lower birth rates instead led to higher growth in GDP per working-age adult, and had no effect on total GDP. Acemoglu and Autor posit that, instead, a decline in younger populations drove companies to invest in labor-saving technologies.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u201cCountries and regions with lower birth rates exhibit more labor-saving patents and growing high-tech activity,\u201d they wrote.<\/p>\n<p>Other economists, like Harvard economist Claudia Goldin, have pointed to an uneven distribution of household work as a reason for demographic change. Goldin, in , argues that when women join the workforce, men often \u201cdo little in their households to ease the increased burden on women.\u201d Women thus choose to delay having children until the unequal distribution of household work is resolved.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Liang, for his part, flatly rejects the idea that women should leave the workforce. \u201cThat\u2019s not going to happen,\u201d he said. \u201cThe solution has to be giving women more options: a lot more time and more money.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>And he asserted that the male half of the population should be doing more. \u201cHusbands and boyfriends should show more responsibility in child-rearing,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>For Liang, the stakes extend well beyond fertility policy. His deeper concern is how a shrinking population will interact with another transformative force: artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n<p>He accepts that AI, if it serves as a labor-saving device, could give young people \u201cmore time and financial help to raise bigger families.\u201d (Some data on AI in the workplace suggests that the tech may be having the opposite effect, pushing people to work longer hours)<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Yet he also worries that AI could squeeze young people out of entry-level jobs, making their situation even more precarious\u2013and make them even less willing to start a family.<\/p>\n<p>More fundamentally, he views AI as intensifying a debate over how to keep humans in the loop regarding AI systems. A declining population, with fewer people to manufacture things and provide necessary human judgment, may end up delegating more and more decision-making to AI. \u201cWe need more people, otherwise we\u2019ll just yield our control to AI,\u201d\u00a0 Liang said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt is increasingly apparent that AI is going to be capable of replacing most human jobs,\u201d he added. \u201cWhat is left for humanity to do?\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=2927\">AI didn\u2019t break higher education\u2014It exposed the credential trap<\/a><\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As China\u2019s fertility hits historic lows, James Liang argues shrinking populations may erode innovation and give too much control to AI systems.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2932,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[114],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2933","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - 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