{"id":3242,"date":"2026-07-12T07:10:07","date_gmt":"2026-07-12T07:10:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=3242"},"modified":"2026-07-12T07:10:07","modified_gmt":"2026-07-12T07:10:07","slug":"3-reasons-bitcoin-is-stuck-in-a-bear-market-and-why-one-analyst-predicts-a-rebound-to-100000-by-year-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=3242","title":{"rendered":"3 reasons Bitcoin is stuck in a bear market\u2014and why one analyst predicts a rebound to $100,000 by year-end"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>The last time Bitcoin experienced such a prolonged drop was in 2022, when several of crypto\u2019s largest players\u2014including the crypto exchange FTX\u2014collapsed and brought the digital assets market down with them. That period saw Bitcoin plunge 76% from its then\u2013all-time high in 2021 to $16,000 in 2022.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=3240\">German carmakers are suffering some of their worst declines ever in China as Q2 sales plunge 30%-41%<\/a><\/p>\n<p>In 2026, the backdrop is different. President Donald Trump has become one of the industry\u2019s biggest boosters, and Wall Street titans like BlackRock and JPMorgan Chase are announcing blockchain-based products left and right. So, why is Bitcoin tanking?<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here are three reasons why the world\u2019s largest cryptocurrency remains mired in a bear market, according to four industry analysts:<\/p>\n<p>For over a decade, Bitcoin has\u00a0 seen three years of significant price appreciation followed by one year of decline. Before the 2022 collapse, the cryptocurrency experienced a downturn in 2018, following the boom and bust of initial coin offerings, or token-based fundraises; and in 2014, following the catastrophic collapse of Mt. Gox, the sector\u2019s largest exchange at the time.<\/p>\n<p>Because the four-year cycle has repeated itself multiple times, investors are now conditioned to expect it, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at the crypto asset manager Bitwise.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOne of the primary reasons for that four-year cycle is actually investor psychology,\u201d Hougan told <em>Fortune<\/em>. \u201cAs we got towards the tail-end of 2025, we started to see some long-term Bitcoin holders\u2026 beginning to lighten up on their position.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>But, this time around, the collapse of an exchange isn\u2019t keeping Bitcoin down. Macroeconomic conditions are to blame, said Zach Pandl, head of research at digital asset manager Grayscale.<\/p>\n<p>In June, year-over-year inflation rose to 4.1% amid increases in oil prices linked to the U.S. conflict with Iran, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. That\u2019s more than double the Federal Reserve\u2019s long-term target of 2%.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Increasing inflation has led institutions like Bank of America to predict that Fed chairman Kevin Warsh will raise interest rates later this year, which is bad for Bitcoin. Riskier assets like cryptocurrencies usually see outflows as investors buy up less-risky debt that promises higher yields.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u201c[We] have seen that pattern play out with Bitcoin\u2019s price over the last several years,\u201d Grayscale\u2019s Pandl told <em>Fortune<\/em>. \u201cWhen the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to zero in COVID, Bitcoin\u2019s price increased. When [it] decided that interest rates were too low and sharply raised [them], Bitcoin\u2019s price declined.\u201d<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Crypto wouldn\u2019t be crypto without risk-taking, and leveraged trading has also led to the current downturn in digital assets, said Bitwise\u2019s Hougan and Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=3238\">Help not wanted: World Cup hiring boost has yet to materialize<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Bull markets tend to encourage investors to take on leverage, or borrow against their positions to buy more assets. For example, Strategy, the world\u2019s largest digital asset treasury, ramped up purchases in 2024 and 2025 to accumulate about 4% of Bitcoin\u2019s total supply, financing much of that buying spree with new equity and debt issuances.<\/p>\n<p>The company\u2019s Bitcoin funding approach spurred similar playbooks across the market, with other firms raising capital to build up their own digital asset stockpiles. But as Bitcoin\u2019s price declined, that model came under pressure. Since October, Strategy\u2019s stock price has fallen by 75%.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat\u2019s happening now is that leverage is getting squeezed out of the system now that we\u2019re in a bear market,\u201d said Hougan, pointing to declining open interest in derivatives and a pullback in digital asset treasury companies.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The pressure is also evident in Strategy\u2019s recent decision to sell part of its Bitcoin holdings, a step that has likely further weakened demand for the asset.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cStrategy is basically the only company that actually keeps buying Bitcoin,\u201d he said, adding that a return to repeated purchases may take time as the firm builds its cash reserves.<\/p>\n<p>Before, and if, Bitcoin returns to its 2025 highs, prospects for the world\u2019s largest cryptocurrency could get worse, said the analysts.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The token has traded around $60,000 for the past month, but Pandl projects a bottom of $58,000. Potential interest rate hikes, Strategy\u2019s impact on investor confidence, and the U.S. Senate\u2019s progress on a key crypto bill are all weighing on Bitcoin\u2019s short-term price moves, Pandl said.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Adrian Fritz, chief investment strategist at the crypto asset manager 21Shares, expects Bitcoin to find a bottom sometime in the summer and projects a rebound toward $100,000 by year-end, citing eventual rate cuts and an end to the Iran war.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOur price target seems like a stretch for a lot of people\u2026 but once the tables turn and that momentum builds,\u201d he said, \u201cthe upside capture happens quite quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=3236\">OpenAI engineer\u2019s \u2018LOL\u2019 moment set stage for legal fight with Apple<\/a><\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rising inflation, Bitcoin\u2019s four-year cycle, and excess leverage continue to draw the cryptocurrency\u2019s price down.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3241,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[363],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3242","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - 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