{"id":3314,"date":"2026-07-13T15:16:49","date_gmt":"2026-07-13T15:16:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=3314"},"modified":"2026-07-13T15:16:49","modified_gmt":"2026-07-13T15:16:49","slug":"oil-prices-march-upward-again-as-the-u-s-iran-conflict-intensifies-and-its-yet-another-headache-for-warsh-and-the-fed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=3314","title":{"rendered":"Oil prices march upward again as the U.S-Iran conflict intensifies\u2014and it\u2019s yet another headache for Warsh and the Fed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The regime in Iran\u2014which borders the Strait\u2014insists the waterway is \u201cclosed,\u201d meaning ships will be nervous to leave or enter the Persian Gulf and choking oil supply as a result. <\/p>\n

Read more U.S. and Iran both say they control the Strait of Hormuz amid attacks that threaten return to all-out war and global economic upheaval<\/a><\/p>\n

The fallout is also spreading: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly claimed it attacked U.S. bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, while U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said it was prompted to act after Iran attacked another commercial ship in the Strait.<\/p>\n

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The back-and-forth doesn\u2019t lend itself to the rhetoric of de-escalation that Wall Street had been hoping for. Oil futures indicate crude oil prices are expected to rise over the next few months and remain around $72 a barrel\u00a0through the end of the year.<\/p>\n

Inflation expectations<\/h2>\n

Concern over a more protracted conflict has implications for inflation and, as a result, will fall into the in-tray of the interest rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), led by new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh. <\/p>\n

Goldman Sachs\u2019s chief U.S. economist, David Mericle, weighed these risks in a note over the weekend. A number of factors should bring inflation down in the coming months, he said, such as the war potentially winding down, the declining effect of tariffs, and \u201cmismeasured and overstated\u201d AI demand. This should be enough to keep the Fed on hold for the rest of the year rather than hiking, Mericle notes, though it \u201cleaves little margin for error.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more Valarian raises $50 million to help governments and enterprises escape America\u2019s cloud grip<\/a><\/p>\n

However, he wrote that if the conflict re-escalated oil to $100 per barrel, as it did earlier this year, the bank\u2019s modeling suggests monthly core inflation could be boosted by 3 to 4 basis points in the coming months. That\u2019s on top of the current reading of 4.2% recorded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for May\u2014well ahead of the Fed\u2019s 2% target.<\/p>\n

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To this end, Mericle adds: \u201cThe impact of yet another supply shock on the monetary policy debate could be more significant than the pass-through math alone suggests because it would add to frustration about what has already been a long series of supply shocks and the difficulty of knowing when they will end and would raise concern that they might eventually be enough to unanchor inflation expectations.\u201d<\/p>\n

Short-term discomfort is likely to give way to longer-term gain, however, added Mericle\u2019s colleagues on the commodity team. Alexandra Paulus\u2019s team wrote that the disruption caused by the Strait will act as motivation to build other pipelines out of the region. <\/p>\n

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A note written by the Goldman team on Sunday highlighted: \u201cThe recent oil price rally \u2026 demonstrates how critical Hormuz flows remain for prices in the short-term. However, in the long-term, we estimate that enough pipeline capacity will likely be added in the Mideast region to insulate over 45% of the pre-war level of Persian Gulf producers\u2019 exports by end-2027 and more than 60% by end-2028 from any potential future Hormuz shocks.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more Exclusive: Google\u2019s former \u2018click fraud czar\u2019 emerges from stealth with an on-device AI shield against AI-powered phishing, deepfakes, and other scams<\/a><\/p>\n

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Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran have knock-on effects for inflation expectations and the trajectory of the base rate, notes Goldman Sachs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3313,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[103],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran"],"yoast_head":"\nOil prices march upward again as the U.S-Iran conflict intensifies\u2014and it\u2019s yet another headache for Warsh and the Fed - Cross Country Moving Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=3314\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Oil prices march upward again as the U.S-Iran conflict intensifies\u2014and it\u2019s yet another headache for Warsh and the Fed - 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