{"id":344,"date":"2026-05-30T13:39:52","date_gmt":"2026-05-30T13:39:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=344"},"modified":"2026-05-30T13:39:52","modified_gmt":"2026-05-30T13:39:52","slug":"the-ai-economy-could-crash-on-mounting-chip-costs-and-those-token-costs-wont-help","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=344","title":{"rendered":"The AI economy could crash on mounting chip costs \u2014 and those token costs won\u2019t help"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The primary reason chip costs are increasing is excessive demand. Proliferation of AI, the Internet of Things, and electric vehicles has increased the overall demand for chips. In particular, chip demand for AI has exploded, supporting both the training of AI models and their deployment across applications.\u00a0Historically, AI model quality scaled with the volume of compute used to build it \u2014 more chips meant better outputs.\u00a0But the demand driver now is shifting from training to inference.\u00a0Goldman Sachs forecasts a 24-fold increase in token consumption by 2030, reaching 120 quadrillion tokens per month, as agentic AI systems replace single-prompt interactions with multi-step tasks that consume orders of magnitude more compute per query. Meanwhile,\u00a0chips\u00a0must still be replaced\u00a0every few years simply to remain cost-competitive, compounding demand pressure from both ends.<\/p>\n

Read more I worked with Steve Jobs at Apple, where every OS update killed startups. AI founders are about to face the same thing<\/a><\/p>\n

The enterprise reality is already arriving. Microsoft recently canceled most of its direct Claude Code licenses after discovering that employee AI usage had grown so large that, in the words of one Nvidia executive, \u201cthe cost of compute is far beyond the costs of the employees.\u201d Uber burned through its entire 2026 AI coding tools budget in four months. Gartner has warned that even a 90% drop in inference costs will not produce cheaper enterprise AI \u2014 because agentic models require far more tokens per task, and AI providers are unlikely to pass savings through in full. Companies are already paying more for AI productivity than they previously paid for the human labor it was meant to augment.<\/p>\n

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Unfortunately, chip production cannot keep up with this demand. A new chip factory may cost tens of billions of dollars and take several years to build. Chip manufacturers are conservative about increasing production since they may be left holding the bill if demand crashes in the future.<\/p>\n

The gap between chip demand and supply creates a shortage that increases chip prices. Production lines are often shared between AI and non-AI chips. Since AI chips are more lucrative to build and sell, production is often diverted away from non-AI chips, creating a shortage even for those chips and increasing their cost.<\/p>\n

Another reason for increasing chip costs is that newer chips cost more to manufacture. They require additional fabrication steps and costlier materials and technologies. Rising inflation and geopolitical and trade tensions compound those pressures further.<\/p>\n

Why Should Mounting Chip Costs Matter for the Broader Economy?<\/h2>\n

Increased chip prices are raising the price of downstream tech, consumer goods, and automotive products, causing inflation \u2014 echoing the chip-shortage-driven price surges of the Covid era. High chip prices are also making it hard for startups and small and mid-sized companies to acquire chips and compete in certain tech and consumer goods industries. Reduced competition will negatively impact innovation. <\/p>\n

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High chip costs are also exacerbating the disadvantages that low- and middle-income countries already face in industries such as AI, data centers, and telecommunications \u2014 further increasing global inequality, shrinking markets for goods and services, and worsening social and political tensions that complicate economic and supply chain partnerships with other nations. Gartner\u2019s finding that cheaper tokens won\u2019t translate into cheaper enterprise AI makes this inequity structural, not temporary: the productivity gains of the agentic era will accrue overwhelmingly to organizations already large enough to absorb escalating compute costs.<\/p>\n

Read more I helped design the system that brought down ISIS financing. I\u2019ve got an AI governance idea the Pope and Anthropic would both like<\/a><\/p>\n

There are also direct threats to the broader economy from mounting chip costs. AI companies are now responsible for a significant and growing share of overall market capitalization and capital expenditure flows.\u00a0High chip costs directly impact their profitability and economic health, creating a vulnerability for the economy. To fund their chip spending, AI companies have signed circular deals with each other \u2014 cross-investments and capacity commitments between companies like Microsoft, OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic\u00a0\u2014 creating a bubble with potentially catastrophic economic consequences. A large share of chip spending is funded through debt \u2014 either direct loans or indirectly through Special Purpose Vehicles and private credit. <\/p>\n

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Considering that chips depreciate quickly in value before they can be sufficiently monetized, the wheels may fall off quickly if a loan defaults or a lender calls in debt. Since many loans use existing chips as collateral, any default may flood the market with older chips, bringing their value down further in a cascading collapse. Depending on direct or indirect exposure by private creditors and special purpose vehicles to public banks, this may wipe out investors and trigger a broader recession. The token bubble compounds this risk: if enterprise customers begin capping or cutting AI usage \u2014 as Microsoft\u2019s own license cancellations suggest is already happening \u2014 revenue projections underpinning chip-collateralized debt may prove optimistic precisely when lenders need them most.<\/p>\n

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What Should Be Done?<\/h2>\n

First, chip demand must be contained using efficient algorithms, software, and hardware. DeepSeek showed that chip demand can be dramatically reduced through algorithmic innovation \u2014 and the enterprise token crisis now emerging makes this efficiency imperative more urgent, not less. Chip production capacity for both AI and non-AI chips should be increased by sharing production costs and risks across the supply chain. The cost of chip production should be decreased through increased use of automation and AI in every stage of the chip supply chain. Existing policy frameworks \u2014 including the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act and the EU Chips Act \u2014 provide partial foundations, but were designed for a supply crisis, not the dual supply-and-demand spiral now underway.\u00a0Chip controls and tariffs should carefully weigh their impact on chip costs. Financial regulations must be strengthened to reduce opacity in chip funding and exposure to public assets, limiting potential fallout.<\/p>\n

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AI is certainly one of the greatest potential economic disruptions of our time. The cost of the very chips that enable it \u2014 and the runaway token consumption of the agentic systems built on those chips \u2014 may threaten its adoption before the promise is fulfilled.\u00a0Both must be contained. Before the market does it the hard way.<\/p>\n

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of\u00a0<\/em>Fortune.<\/em><\/p>\n

Read more The U.S. power grid isn\u2019t one big machine \u2014 it\u2019s three. That\u2019s a problem for blackout season<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Soaring GPU prices, debt-funded chip deals and an agentic token explosion \u2014 the cost of the hardware and compute powering AI could be what breaks it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":343,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[99],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-344","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chips"],"yoast_head":"\nThe AI economy could crash on mounting chip costs \u2014 and those token costs won\u2019t help - Cross Country Moving Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=344\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The AI economy could crash on mounting chip costs \u2014 and those token costs won\u2019t help - 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