{"id":4037,"date":"2026-07-23T12:08:50","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T12:08:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=4037"},"modified":"2026-07-23T12:08:50","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T12:08:50","slug":"trump-faces-a-catch-22-on-iran-because-of-midterms-says-his-former-commerce-secretary-face-inflation-furor-or-withdraw-and-look-weak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=4037","title":{"rendered":"Trump faces a Catch-22 on Iran because of midterms, says his former commerce secretary: Face inflation furor, or withdraw and look weak"},"content":{"rendered":"
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That\u2019s the current state of play according to Wilbur Ross, Trump\u2019s former commerce secretary in his first administration. Speaking exclusively to Fortune<\/em>, Ross said the president has a balance of risks to strike: Either face the wrath of voters if oil prices remain high due to the Iran conflict, or withdraw from the region and risk that being used against him.<\/p>\n

Read more Michael Muthukrishna: The \u2018lone genius\u2019 myth is wrong and it\u2019s holding back your business<\/a><\/p>\n

Of course, there will be other forces shaping voters\u2019 perceptions in the run-up to the midterms\u2014Ross highlights immigration issues as chief among them\u2014but there is no denying that \u201caffordability\u201d has become a political lightning rod, and was the issue that Trump made key promises on during his election run.<\/p>\n

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Ross underlined that, in the grand scheme of wars, the Iran conflict is thus-far relatively short-lived. However, it has dragged on in the eyes of Wall Street and voters, given that Trump\u2019s rhetoric at the outset was that it would be over within a matter of weeks.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re about to go into the midterm elections, and so there\u2019s an unusual political factor which I\u2019m sure both sides are aware of. The Iranians seem to be betting that they can outlast the president, and that has been a characteristic theory of their prior discussions,\u201d Ross explained. \u201cThe war itself, in a kind of technical sense, is over.\u00a0Iran has no air force, they have no real navy, they have no air defense, so in that sense, it\u2019s over. The question is, can we win the peace? And that\u2019s what Hormuz is about.\u201d<\/p>\n

Consumers are already paying for the re-escalation in the Middle East because Iran borders the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for oil exports from the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world. With ships reluctant to travel down the Strait\u2014despite Trump insisting it is controlled by the U.S.\u2014supply is stalling while demand remains at the same level, pushing prices up. And in the last 24 hours, the Houthis\u2014a Yemen-based terror group that acts on Iran\u2019s behest\u2014have begun attacking ships in the Bab al-Mandab Strait on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula. <\/p>\n

The biggest political risk facing Trump in the run-up to the midterms is oil, Ross adds: \u201cIf oil gets back up to $5 a gallon at the pump, that\u2019s gonna make the midterms very, very difficult.\u00a0And, if he loses both houses in the midterms, he will be impeached.\u201d<\/p>\n

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If there\u2019s a split\u2014potentially with the Democrats controlling the House and the Republicans the Senate, then Trump would face a shift in power, meaning his prerogative to make or conduct war could be restricted, Ross said.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, Ross adds, \u201cIf he pulled out without this being resolved, and [Iran] do impose some huge fines or what have you on Hormuz, then the Democrats have a very nice storyline: \u2018What was the war all about? Look what we got for it: We\u2019ve got the high oil prices, and we don\u2019t have peace.\u2019 People saying \u2018Oh, he\u2019s gonna have to pull out before the midterms,\u2019 I\u2019m not so sure that\u2019s true.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more Spain lifted the World Cup, but the IRS still gets a cut of its $50 million pay day as players, coaches and refs all face complex U.S. \u201cjock taxes\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n

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Even if Trump was motivated to withdraw from the conflict by the midterms, that doesn\u2019t automatically mean prices come down. \u201cI can\u2019t imagine if he pulled out the Iranians, suddenly saying, \u2018Well, we\u2019ve decided to play nice, then there won\u2019t be any constraints on Hormuz,’\u201d Ross explained. \u201cThat\u2019s not gonna happen. The midterms are a factor, [but] I think it\u2019s probably influencing the Iranians more than it is the Americans.\u201d <\/p>\n

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\u00a0The Big Oil option<\/h2>\n

President Trump has also begun turning up the temperature on his former allies in the Big Oil world. In a Truth Social\u00a0post\u00a0last month, the president wrote that despite oil prices \u201cdropping like a rock \u2026 the big oil companies are not dropping their price at the pump commensurate with the sharply lower prices they are paying for oil.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Consumers are being \u201cgouged,\u201d\u00a0the president added, and as such: \u201cI have instructed the DOJ to immediately start looking into this. Gasoline prices better start going down a lot faster than what I\u2019m seeing!\u201d<\/p>\n

Ross said Big Oil can expect the president to keep up the pressure to bring down prices, highlighting that as soon as any military action occurred, prices at the pumps also leapt, adding: \u201cThe pump price isn\u2019t really justified to go up the same day because the oil hasn\u2019t found its way through.\u201d <\/p>\n

\u201cI would expect that [Trump] would be putting increasing pressure on them to do two things,\u201d Ross explained. \u201cOne, not to expand the margins of the gas stations themselves, and two, to produce more. They\u2019ve been relatively constrained in the amount of increase in their production.\u201d <\/p>\n

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration released earlier this month show that the U.S. is producing an average of 13.8 million barrels a day in 2026, only slightly higher than a year ago at 13.6 million barrels a day.<\/p>\n

Read more Top CD rates from major banks on July 23, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more<\/a><\/p>\n

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Trump’s former commerce secretary Wilbur Ross on Iranian negotiations and oil prices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4036,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[103],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran"],"yoast_head":"\nTrump faces a Catch-22 on Iran because of midterms, says his former commerce secretary: Face inflation furor, or withdraw and look weak - Cross Country Moving Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=4037\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump faces a Catch-22 on Iran because of midterms, says his former commerce secretary: Face inflation furor, or withdraw and look weak - 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