{"id":4198,"date":"2026-07-25T14:38:56","date_gmt":"2026-07-25T14:38:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=4198"},"modified":"2026-07-25T14:38:56","modified_gmt":"2026-07-25T14:38:56","slug":"spacex-may-have-missed-its-window-to-buy-tesla","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=4198","title":{"rendered":"SpaceX may have missed its window to buy Tesla"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Musk\u2019s new comments suggest that a SpaceX-Tesla merger is a strong possibility. So it\u2019s worth considering how much more financially stressful a deal looks today, especially for SpaceX shareholders, than just a few weeks ago. Following SpaceX\u2019s widely-heralded IPO on June 12, its stock jumped from the offer price of $135 to peak at $211 on July 16. At that point, it boasted a valuation of $2.8 trillion. Analysts at the 15 firms that participated in the underwriting, among them Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan, predicted that the bump was durable, and on average, posited that the share price would stand at around $225 in 12 to 18 months.<\/p>\n

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At that point, it appeared that Musk could capitalize on a high-flying stock, poised to soar higher, as a \u201ccheap\u201d currency for buying Tesla. Here\u2019s how the numbers stood: As of mid-July, SpaceX\u2019s valuation was $2.8 trillion vs Tesla at $1.6 trillion. By paying in stock, if news of the deal didn\u2019t move their prices, SpaceX could buy Tesla by issuing an additional 57% of its shares (the ratio of $1.6 to $2.8 trillion). Great case of deploying what looked like an overvalued stock to capture a highly valuable property, by Musk\u2019s estimation at least, while still allowing your existing shareholders to keep an almost two-thirds stake.<\/p>\n

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Since then, however, both stocks have dropped sharply, substantially changing the calculus. As of mid-afternoon on July 24, Tesla had cratered from $405 to $308, a retreat of 24%. But SpaceX took a much bigger tumble, falling from $211 to $113, or 46%. Now, SpaceX at a market cap of $1.49 trillion would need to issue 82% of its shares to buy Tesla at $1.22 trillion (the ratio of $1.22 to $1.49 tn.). Instead of owning nearly two-thirds of the combo, SpaceX investors would hold only 55%. They\u2019d suffer gigantic dilution of 45%.<\/p>\n

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So in matter of weeks, a deal should have gotten far less attractive to SpaceX. What may be Musk\u2019s ultimate vision faces a math problem. At their current valuations, SpaceX would be hugely overpaying for Tesla. Issuing all that stock would likely trash SpaceX shares on the AOL-Time Warner model. SpaceX investors would own a little over half of the rocket and AI properties they hold 100% of now, and get only puny additional earnings and big time negative free cash flow, in exchange. Tesla owners might not profit either. Unless they sold right away, they\u2019d be stuck with SpaceX shares falling under the weight of that massive dilution. <\/p>\n

Sounds like a bad deal for all sides. But you\u2019d never know it based on Musk\u2019s cheery comments on the call. Take it from Elon. Even the most terrible of terrible-sounding numbers shouldn\u2019t take your eyes off the glorious, gauzy horizon this great salesman\u2019s so skilled at painting.<\/p>\n

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SpaceX’s stock nosedive makes Elon Musk’s merger dreams much harder to justify.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4197,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[480],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4198","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tech-companies"],"yoast_head":"\nSpaceX may have missed its window to buy Tesla - Cross Country Moving Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=4198\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"SpaceX may have missed its window to buy Tesla - Cross Country Moving Team\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"SpaceX's stock nosedive makes Elon Musk's merger dreams much harder to justify.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=4198\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Cross Country Moving Team\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-07-25T14:38:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\\\/?p=4198#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\\\/?p=4198\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/1b8121bfb9a1c55d1fff3fca675fceaa\"},\"headline\":\"SpaceX may have missed its window to buy Tesla\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-07-25T14:38:56+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\\\/?p=4198\"},\"wordCount\":520,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\\\/?p=4198#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/07\\\/9042721a8faaa1f9597aa9eccd18d4d1.webp\",\"articleSection\":[\"Tech Companies\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\\\/?p=4198#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\\\/?p=4198\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\\\/?p=4198\",\"name\":\"SpaceX may have missed its window to buy Tesla - 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