{"id":4254,"date":"2026-07-26T10:13:22","date_gmt":"2026-07-26T10:13:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=4254"},"modified":"2026-07-26T10:13:22","modified_gmt":"2026-07-26T10:13:22","slug":"college-women-are-snapping-up-the-highest-earning-men-without-college-degrees-leaving-the-rest-further-behind","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=4254","title":{"rendered":"College women are snapping up the highest-earning men without college degrees, leaving the rest further behind"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Fortune<\/em> has been chronicling how money shapes marriage since long before this study \u2014 the magazine\u2019s Julie Connelly coined the term \u201ctrophy wife\u201d itself in a 1989 cover story, a phrase that\u2019s since become an inescapable shorthand across pop culture for wealth-driven pairings. Now, new research suggests the more consequential story about marriage and money is happening in the opposite direction: not among the wealthy elite, but in the widening gap between non-college women and the shrinking pool of \u201cmarriageable\u201d men.<\/p>\n

Read more Intern arrested in Belgium on suspicion of spying inside NATO military headquarters and \u2018being a member of a criminal organization\u2019<\/a><\/p>\n

A National Bureau of Economic Research working paper tracked marriage patterns across U.S. birth cohorts from 1930 to 1980 and found that college-educated women have kept their marriage rates stable even as their pool of similarly educated men shrank dramatically. The ratio of college men to college women fell from 1.8 to 0.8 over that span, and there are now 1.6 million more women than men enrolled in four-year colleges nationwide, according to the study by economists Clara Chambers of Yale, Benjamin Goldman of Cornell, and Joseph Winkelmann of Harvard.<\/p>\n

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\u201cFour-year college rates for men stagnated essentially many decades ago, whereas for women, it\u2019s been a steady increase,\u201d Goldman told Fortune<\/em>. \u201cThat\u2019s really been the key factor that\u2019s led to the changing ratio over time.\u201d<\/p>\n

The paper, \u201cBachelors Without Bachelor\u2019s: Gender Gaps in Education and Declining Marriage Rates,\u201d complicates the mutation of the \u201ctrophy wife\u201d era into the \u201cpower couples\u201d era: as wealthy Americans increasingly marry within their own income and education tier. This new research shows the opposite pattern playing out further down the income ladder, where college-educated women are increasingly pairing with men who skipped college altogether.<\/p>\n

The shift also reflects the labor market of the era, Goldman said. Well-paying, often unionized manufacturing jobs once let men build a solid living without a four-year degree, while fields that have drawn more women, like nursing and teaching, increasingly required one.<\/p>\n

College women adapted by marrying down. The share of marriages in which the wife has a four-year degree and the husband doesn\u2019t has quadrupled, from 2.3% of all women in the 1930 birth cohort to 9.6% in the 1980 cohort. Crucially, they\u2019re marrying the highest earners without college degrees, whose incomes rose from an average of $61,400 to $68,400. Non-college men who didn\u2019t marry a college-educated woman saw their own average earnings move the opposite direction, falling roughly $10,000 to about $46,000 \u2014 underscoring how the gains from a shrinking pool of \u201cmarriageable\u201d men have concentrated at the top rather than lifting the group as a whole.<\/p>\n

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\u201cIf you look historically at marriage patterns in the U.S., women who went to four-year colleges predominantly married men who also went to four-year colleges,\u201d Goldman told Fortune<\/em>. \u201cBut there\u2019s simply not enough of those guys to go around today. You\u2019d either expect to see more college-educated women not marrying, or they\u2019d have to marry across education boundaries.\u201d<\/p>\n

Goldman cautioned that the paper doesn\u2019t examine why individual couples pair off the way they do\u2014only these market-level patterns. He also pushed back on reading a status gap into these marriages, pointing to a more typical example like someone who went to nursing school marrying a small-business owner, or a well-paid electrician or HVAC technician.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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That pattern matches what Institute for Family Studies researchers have called \u201cskimming\u201d \u2014 college-educated women aren\u2019t rejecting non-college men wholesale, but they disproportionately end up with the most economically stable ones, leaving less-stable non-college men further behind in the marriage market.<\/p>\n

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\u201cIt\u2019s not clear in those marriages that there\u2019s kind of like a power imbalance just because of the education dimension of it,\u201d he told Fortune<\/em>.<\/p>\n

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That cuts against a narrative that\u2019s spread dating commentary\u2014essays touching on the difficulty of finding a partner as a highly educated woman have proliferated in outlets like The New Yorker<\/em> and The Atlantic.<\/em> But the study\u2019s own data show college-educated women are, in fact, marrying at higher rates than any other group in the analysis.<\/p>\n

That anxiety around scarce, high-status male partners isn\u2019t new\u2014it\u2019s the flip side of the dynamic Fortune first named in 1989, just moving down the income ladder from the CEO\u2019s second wife to the electrician\u2019s wife.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not to say that that\u2019s off base or not people\u2019s experience or anything like that, but part of what motivated us here was this puzzle, which is when you look at the data, that is the demographic group in the U.S. that is still marrying at the highest rates,\u201d Goldman added.\u00a0<\/p>\n

As college women absorbed these men, the pool of \u201cmarriageable\u201d ones available to non-college women\u2014defined in the study as those earning above the national median and not already married to a college graduate\u2014collapsed from 72.9% of non-college men in the 1930 cohort to 35.3% in the 1980 cohort, a drop of more than half.<\/p>\n

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The effect on actual marriage rates is stark: non-college women\u2019s likelihood of being married fell from 78.7% to 52.4% across the cohorts studied, while college-educated women\u2019s marriage rates held steady above 70% throughout the same period.<\/p>\n

This finding data led the researchers to predict that Americans born in the mid-1990s are on track to become the first cohort where more than half of non-college women won\u2019t be married at age 45.To build that forecast, the researchers looked at how many people in a birth cohort were already married or living with a partner in their early 30s, then applied that same relationship from past cohorts\u2014where the age-45 outcome is already known\u2014to project forward.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Read more Gambling becomes America\u2019s favorite pastime as Americans spend more on sports bets than movies, arts, museums, and music combined<\/a><\/p>\n

The dynamic echoes a well-known 2014 paper, \u201cMarry Your Like,\u201d by economists Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner, Georgi Kocharkov, and Cezar Santos, which found that rising sorting by education and income since 1960 has been a significant driver of the growth in U.S. household income inequality.<\/p>\n

Goldman noted the underlying trend shows up even without the forecast: marriage and cohabitation rates for non-college women in their early 30s have kept falling in every cohort through the one born in the mid-1990s.<\/p>\n

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\u201cI actually think this type of thing resonates more quickly with a normal person than it might with someone who went to a super fancy college,\u201d Goldman said. He pointed to nationally representative survey data\u2014like the University of Michigan\u2019s Monitoring the Future survey of high school seniors\u2014showing that most Americans still list having a family among their central life goals.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s work in social psychology and other fields that\u2019s shown, at least correlationally, that being married is a key input to health, longevity, and avoiding loneliness in old age,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

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Goldman\u2019s study dovetails a larger trend of the economic unraveling facing men without college degrees. About 16% of non-college-educated men now live with their parents, double the portion of their college-educated counterparts, as rents have risen 150% since 1960 while their wages have barely budged.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Scott Winship of the American Enterprise Institute previously told Fortune<\/em> the decline of marriage itself is feeding the problem: \u201cI think marriage really is the sleeper issue here,\u201d he said, noting that working-class men who once could have \u201ctolerated higher housing costs\u201d as married breadwinners are now single and thus more likely to work less and live at home.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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There\u2019s also a growing gender imbalance in the workplace that is also hitting men harder. Women now hold more U.S. payroll jobs than men for just the third time in history, a change economists previously told Fortune<\/em> looks structural rather than cyclical. Female-dominated sectors like healthcare have driven more than half of recent U.S. job growth, while male-heavy fields like manufacturing and tech have stagnated\u2014compounding the earnings erosion the NBER researchers link directly to marriage rates.<\/p>\n

\u201cI would view our paper as kind of diagnostic at a very high level,\u201d Goldman said. \u201cIt\u2019s very clear, both in the data over time and across places, that the environments where you see declining marriage rates for working-class women are precisely the environments where men are doing worse economically.\u201d<\/p>\n

Other research on the question points in different directions, he noted. Economist David Autor and his coauthors found that manufacturing decline during the China Shock reduced marriage rates in the hardest-hit communities. Economists Melissa Kearney and Riley Wilson, studying localized fracking booms that raised men\u2019s earnings, found increases in both marital and nonmarital births\u2014but no corresponding increase in marriage rates.<\/p>\n

Not all economists agree assortative mating itself has intensified. A 2016 NBER paper by Rania Gihleb and coauthors argued that once measured properly, there\u2019s little compelling evidence that educational assortative mating rose over the past half-century \u2014 a reminder that Goldman\u2019s findings describe a shift in who marries whom by credential, not necessarily proof that Americans have become choosier about matching status overall.<\/p>\n

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The pattern bears out geographically, though: the marriage gap between college-educated and non-college-educated women narrows in regions where non-college men face lower joblessness and incarceration rates, reinforcing Goldman\u2019s point that men\u2019s local economic standing and women\u2019s marriage prospects move together.<\/p>\n

Goldman was careful to note that his own paper doesn\u2019t establish causation.<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u201cThe work we do in the paper is not enough to attribute the decline in economic outcomes among men as having caused the changes in marriage patterns we observe,\u201d he told Fortune<\/em>. \u201cIt\u2019s more noting that they seem to occur at the same time.\u201d<\/p>\n

He also resisted the idea that the findings amount to a tradeoff between helping men and helping women.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\u201cWhat affects one group naturally affects the other, because you need a pair,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Read more Let\u2019s get ready to rumble: The next Fed meeting will be a \u2018family feud\u2019 \u2014 and that\u2019s exactly what Chairman Kevin Warsh wants<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new NBER study finds that as college men grow scarce, college-educated women marry high-earning men without degrees\u2014leaving non-college women with a shrinking, poorer pool of potential husbands<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4253,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[419],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4254","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-lifestyle"],"yoast_head":"\nCollege women are snapping up the highest-earning men without college degrees, leaving the rest further behind - Cross Country Moving Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=4254\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"College women are snapping up the highest-earning men without college degrees, leaving the rest further behind - 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