{"id":4380,"date":"2026-07-28T06:11:14","date_gmt":"2026-07-28T06:11:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=4380"},"modified":"2026-07-28T06:11:14","modified_gmt":"2026-07-28T06:11:14","slug":"trump-cant-stop-shooting-himself-in-the-foot-as-the-stage-looks-set-once-again-for-warsh-to-hold-if-not-hike-interest-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=4380","title":{"rendered":"Trump can\u2019t stop shooting himself in the foot, as the stage looks set once again for Warsh to hold\u2014if not hike\u2014interest rates"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Part of that reading has come from higher fuel prices, . While pressure in this category is beginning to fade (down 4.9% May to June), prices remain elevated as a result of conflict in the Middle East, choking global oil supply as a result.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=4378\">U.S.\u2014Canada bridge opens to traffic in Detroit amid Trump tariffs strain<\/a><\/p>\n<p>There is little sign of a resolution between Washington and Tehran in sight. While the two sides are not currently engaged in active military conflict, as they have been over the past fortnight, no official ceasefire has been announced. While the fragile pause of fire allows space for diplomacy to proceed, neither side has indicated they will capitulate over control of the Strait of Hormuz\u2014the key shipping lane in the movement of oil around the planet.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Trump\u2019s foreign policy is therefore standing in the way of Warsh\u2019s path to a cut\u2014Wall Street analysts highlighted at the start of the week.<\/p>\n<p>Bank of America\u2019s base case is for a hold this month, wrote chief U.S. economist Aditya Bhave and his team: \u201cWith markets now pricing nearly 10 [basis points] of hikes in July, Chair\u00a0Warsh faces a difficult choice. Not hiking could challenge the Fed\u2019s credibility on inflation. But raising rates would go against his framework of looking through supply shocks.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe think July is\u00a0Warsh\u2019s call, as he has enough votes either way. He has strategic incentives to hike soon. We still expect three 25 bp hikes, in September, October, and December.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>The credibility question<\/h2>\n<p>Warsh\u2019s\u2014and by proxy, the Fed\u2019s\u2014credibility is at the heart of the scrutiny the central bank is currently under. Following President Trump\u2019s unprecedented onslaught against Warsh\u2019s predecessor Jerome Powell, politicians and analysts alike wondered what the Oval Office\u2019s nominee for chairman would do once he was installed in D.C.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=4376\">Kalshi tiptoes back into canceled flight markets with new  JFK airport wager, bets don\u2019t apply to specific flights<\/a><\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The key question was whether Warsh would advocate for the lower rate the president is angling for, even if the data suggests otherwise. So far, this hasn\u2019t come to pass. But an aversion to hiking the base rate if appropriate to do so could similarly raise alarm.<\/p>\n<p>While Warsh is keeping his cards now characteristically close to his chest (he is staunchly against forward guidance),\u00a0EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco points out other policymakers are becoming emboldened.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u201cChair Warsh\u2019s communication void has encouraged other policymakers to speak more forcefully,\u201d Daco wrote. \u201cTheir message has converged around a simple reaction function: After months of upside inflation surprises, patience is wearing thin. If inflation does not soon move back toward 2%, and remains elevated because of persistent supply shocks, stronger AI-related demand, tariffs, or the Middle East conflict, the case for additional policy firming will be clear.\u201d<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>It seems the majority agree: According to CME\u2019s FedWatch barometer, based on 30-day Fed funds futures prices, 68.5% of interest rate traders expect a hold at the meeting this week. The rest expect a 25 basis point hike to 3.75% to 4%.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=4374\">A Chinese chip maker\u2019s shares surged 466% in their first day of trading as AI boom worm turns<\/a><\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>President Trump\u2019s negotiations with Iran are an obstacle on the path to lower interest rates, write analysts, with oil prices elevated.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4379,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[58],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4380","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-inflation"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trump can\u2019t stop shooting himself in the foot, as the stage looks set once again for Warsh to hold\u2014if not hike\u2014interest rates - 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