{"id":4521,"date":"2026-07-30T05:44:40","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T05:44:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=4521"},"modified":"2026-07-30T05:44:40","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T05:44:40","slug":"wall-street-is-panicking-over-kevin-warshs-patience","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=4521","title":{"rendered":"Wall Street is panicking over Kevin Warsh\u2019s patience"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>The 30-year Treasury yield surged 10 basis points to 5.21%, its highest level in 19 years, while the 10-year\u2014important for the mortgage market\u2014climbed seven basis points, to 4.67%. However, the two-year actually fell four basis points.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=4519\">Dow drops over 1,100 points as sinking tech stocks combine with jumping oil prices to drag markets down<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The reason? Traders were gauging the odds of an imminent hike, and simultaneously demanded more compensation to hold longer government debt, believing that inflation would continue to bite.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Equities also took the press conference badly. After a brief surge following the initial announcement, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 1,153 points, or about 2.1%, its worst day since April 2025. The S&amp;P 500 fell 1.5% and the Nasdaq 1.7%.<\/p>\n<p>Warsh had previously spent the hour telling reporters that his system of non\u2013forward guidance was working, partially because markets could do the job for him.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019ve seen a material tightening, not just in nominal rates, but in real rates too, and we\u2019re observing it,\u201d he said. \u201cEven while at some level we haven\u2019t done much in 42 days, the markets have done quite a bit.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That is by design. Warsh\u2019s signature move as chairman has been to strip out forward guidance so that markets can price the economy as opposed to just parroting the Fed. \u201cWhat I\u2019ve really been trying to do,\u201d he told a reporter during the conference, \u201cis getting an unfiltered message from markets \u2026 and then trying to judge for ourselves, \u2018What does that mean about our remit?\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Inflation has now run above the Fed\u2019s 2% target for what Warsh himself counts as 63 months. He has held rates at both meetings he has chaired, though he has placed fighting inflation as his main priority, and the measure by which his success as chairman should be held.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Bloomberg\u2019s Michael McKee asked Warsh directly during the press conference: \u201cWhat are you waiting for?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=4517\">More than 1,200 AI workers across Anthropic, DeepMind, OpenAI, and Meta are asking for Washington\u2019s help building an AI slowdown plan<\/a><\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Warsh replied: \u201cThe decision we made today, the discussion we had in that room, was the farthest thing from inertia I can imagine.\u201d He said he had asked for \u201ca good family fight\u201d among the committee and got one, noting he would \u201cnot be constrained\u201d by how traders price hikes in September.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, wrote in a note that the hike hasn\u2019t been canceled, just postponed. \u201cIt\u2019s likely that market pricing for a hike has simply been pushed forward. September remains a live meeting, and the incoming inflation data between now and then will be all that matters.\u201d<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The other pillar of Warsh\u2019s patience is a claim in the FOMC statement that, as he restated: \u201cThe economy output is solid. Capex and productivity are strong.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>Productivity has grown at a 0.3% annualized rate in the first quarter and is tracking near 1% in the second, a number that many economists agree is solid-to-weak. Skanda Amarnath of Employ America called it worse than an error. \u201cIt\u2019s a bad sign for the FOMC that they are veering into factual inaccuracies in their official statement, and in ways that smell of potential politicking from the new Fed Chair,\u201d he wrote on X. \u201cIt would be concerning if factual misrepresentations are getting elevated due to political convenience.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Warsh\u2019s case for beating inflation without a recession\u2014and potentially, without hikes\u2014runs through AI-driven productivity gains, an argument he made in a <em>Wall Street Journal<\/em> op-ed last November. Yet Barclays economists find no statistically significant link between industry-level AI adoption and productivity growth, while a Federal Reserve Board discussion paper this month found micro-level gains that are \u201cnot adding up in aggregate.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Warsh conceded the difficulty himself, telling the <em>Journal<\/em>\u2019s Nick Timiraos the Fed is \u201cinferring aggregate supply\u201d and that \u201cthe surge in business capex in around AI, it\u2019s making that calculation a little harder to judge.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=4515\">Meta stock drops 10% as free cash flow gets crushed\u2014and Zuckerberg hints at launching cloud business with few details<\/a><\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Dow fell over 2% after the conference.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4520,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[279],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kevin-warsh"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - 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