{"id":4535,"date":"2026-07-30T10:11:58","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T10:11:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=4535"},"modified":"2026-07-30T10:11:58","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T10:11:58","slug":"hollywoods-memory-moment-how-spider-man-vs-the-odyssey-is-driving-the-box-offices-best-summer-since-the-pandemic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=4535","title":{"rendered":"Hollywood\u2019s \u2018memory moment\u2019: How Spider-Man vs. The Odyssey is driving the box office\u2019s best summer since the pandemic"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u201cThe audience erupted,\u201d Dergarabedian recalled. \u201cThat was mind-blowing.\u201d<\/p>\n

He\u2019d already seen The Odyssey<\/em> on its first showing, the Thursday prior, but saw it again that Sunday. \u201cThat\u2019s a lot of hours,\u201d he said, adding that he may yet go to see it again. But the scene at Grauman\u2019s\u2014the 70mm, the Villeneuve card, the crowd\u2019s response\u2014stayed with him as the clearest evidence of something he\u2019d been watching build all summer.<\/p>\n

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\u201cThis is a memory moment,\u201d he said. \u201cA touchstone moment.\u201d<\/p>\n

Dergarabedian, a longtime box office analyst and head of marketplace trends at Rentrak, has watched a lot of summers come and go. He\u2019s been at this a while, noting that he covered the milestone releases of both Jurassic Park<\/em> in 1993 and Avengers: Endgame<\/em> in 2019.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019ve seen it all,\u201d he told Fortune<\/em>. \u201cAnd this year\u2014between the unexpected indie surprises and then the blockbuster success\u2014there\u2019s an incredible mix of films.\u201d With Spider-Man: Brand New Day<\/em> set to open even bigger on July 31, tracking toward $200 million to $250 million domestically, it\u2019s a boom that has room to run.<\/p>\n

The purest statistical milestone<\/h2>\n

For Dergarabedian, the number that mattered most wasn\u2019t The Odyssey<\/em>\u2018s opening, even though that was undeniably a blockbuster result, cementing Nolan\u2019s standing as the rare director who can open an R-rated, nearly three-hour original epic on scale. It was what happened the following weekend.<\/p>\n

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Studio estimates on Sunday morning put the Odyssey<\/em>\u2018s second-weekend drop at around 30%, with roughly $87 million in ticket sales. As final numbers came in, that figure crept up to $90 million\u2014tightening the decline to about 27%.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s nothing for a movie that opened that big,\u201d Dergarabedian said, explaining that major tentpoles routinely fall 50% or more in their second frames. This kind of hold puts The Odyssey<\/em> in the same conversation as Top Gun: Maverick<\/em> and Obsession<\/em> when it comes to legs. It\u2019s already near $700 million globally and climbing; by the end of the weekend, Dergarabedian expects it to be pushing $800 million.<\/p>\n

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\u201cThey\u2019re not gonna let that thing leave theaters until it hits $1 billion,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

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He traced the hold to \u201cword of mouth doing the heavy lifting\u201d \u2014 people reading about the film\u2019s success and not wanting to be left out, \u201cjust like appointment television used to be.\u201d The FOMO factor is real for the movies this year, he concluded. <\/p>\n

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\u201cPeople were going out on Sunday night [to see this],\u201d he said. \u201cThat\u2019s a real thing.\u201d<\/p>\n

The observation lands differently in 2026 from it would have a decade ago. For roughly 20 years, prestige migrated steadily away from the multiplex and toward the living room. The Sopranos<\/em> and Breaking Bad<\/em> established television as the medium where the cultural water-cooler moments lived; the streaming era that followed doubled down on that logic, until the sheer proliferation of prestige content made appointment viewing nearly impossible. There was too much to keep up with, and all of it was available whenever. <\/p>\n

The Odyssey<\/em>\u2018s second-weekend hold is a television-era metric applied to a movie\u2014what happens when audiences feel they\u2019ll be left out of a conversation if they don\u2019t show up. Appointment culture has gone back to the future: the multiplex.<\/p>\n

Spider-Man as pressure point<\/h2>\n

If The Odyssey<\/em> lit the fuse, Spider-Man<\/em> is the looming detonation. Brand New Day<\/em> doesn\u2019t open until July 31, but tracking has it in the $230 million to $250 million range domestically, which would make it the biggest opening weekend of 2026. Dergarabedian has seen enough to offer a prediction: \u201cSpider-Man\u2019s<\/em> gonna blow the doors off.\u201d<\/p>\n

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What makes the matchup unusual is its intimacy. Zendaya, Tom Holland, and Jon Bernthal all appear in both The Odyssey<\/em> and Brand New Day<\/em>, creating a back-to-back star run that Dergarabedian compared to Humphrey Bogart and Lauren Bacall, or Warren Beatty and Annette Bening. He said he expects fans to embrace the trio of stars. <\/p>\n

\u201cI think there\u2019s going to be people bragging about seeing both,\u201d he said. (Zendaya has an outside chance to repeat the trick this December. If she appears in the next Avengers<\/em> movie, she will open against herself on the same day as Dune<\/em>: Part Three<\/em>.)<\/p>\n

In fact, instead of a rivalry, he argued for a Barbenheimer-like cultural phenomenon in the making, with The Odyssey<\/em> being the best thing that happened to Spider-Man<\/em>. The two films are \u201ccomplementary and additive,\u201d he said\u2014proof the theatrical market can sustain a superhero tentpole and a Nolan epic simultaneously, rather than cannibalizing each other. He pushed back on the \u201csuperhero fatigue\u201d narrative that\u2019s been circulating since the MCU\u2019s post-Endgame stumbles. <\/p>\n

\u201cClearly, if you put all superhero movies into one bucket, that\u2019s a big mistake,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s not superhero fatigue. It\u2019s bad marketing or bad movie fatigue.\u201d He acknowledged Supergirl<\/em>\u2018s struggles, but said they don\u2019t predict Spider-Man<\/em>\u2018s ceiling.<\/p>\n

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The eclectic slate<\/h2>\n

The twin pillars of the Odyssey-Spider-Man<\/em> showdown are sitting atop a summer that was already outperforming expectations before either of them opened. The Devil Wears Prada 2<\/em> kicked off the season by outperforming last year\u2019s Marvel entry, Thunderbolts<\/em>. Lower-budget genre films\u2014Backrooms<\/em>, Obsession<\/em> and Iron Lung<\/em>, many driven by creators with YouTube and small-screen pedigrees\u2014have broken through with younger viewers. Animated and family titles have filled in around them. Even franchise disappointments like Moana<\/em> and Supergirl<\/em> couldn\u2019t drag the aggregate down \u2014\u00a0and he cited Moana<\/em> as having long legs in its own right.<\/p>\n

\u201cLiterally, at the multiplex, if you can\u2019t find a movie for everyone, you\u2019re not looking,\u201d Dergarabedian said. He thinks the eclectic mix is what\u2019s pulling different demographics in at once\u2014families, older moviegoers who remember 70mm roadshows, and Gen Z, who were supposed to be permanently attached to their phones.<\/p>\n

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The math behind that observation: The 2026 domestic summer box office crossed $3 billion as of late July, leaving roughly a $1 billion gap to reach the seasonal benchmark of $4 billion that used to define a healthy season. Dergarabedian said it could be within reach, especially if Spider-Man<\/em> opens big and August delivers\u2014a $1 billion August has only happened twice. For the full year, he sees a plausible path to the first $10 billion year since before the pandemic. Pre-COVID, the benchmark was $11 billion domestically, but since 2020, the industry has cleared $9 billion only twice.<\/p>\n

Getting to $10 billion for the full year, all the way up from $2.3 billion or \u201calmost zero\u201d in 2020, would be \u201cnothing short of remarkable\u201d to the long-time box office watcher.<\/p>\n

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Gen Z, \u2018macrame\u2019 and the analog appeal<\/h2>\n

Part of what\u2019s driving those numbers, in his telling, is a demographic surprise. Gen Z now accounts for close to 40% of the moviegoing audience in North America\u2014a cohort that was supposed to be lost to small screens. A 2026 Fandango survey found 87% of Gen Z respondents had seen at least one film in a theater in the past year\u2014outpacing millennials\u2014and they\u2019re averaging around seven annual trips.<\/p>\n

\u201cGen Z are embracing cassettes, handcrafted\u2026 macrame,\u201d Dergarabedian said, noting the cohort\u2019s seemingly ever-growing love of analog. The same impulse that drives vinyl and thrift culture shows up in their appreciation for movies that feel materially made, he argued, pointing to Nolan\u2019s refusal to use generative AI, love of shooting on film, and insistence on practical effects. In Dergarabedian\u2019s shorthand, Nolan is making \u201chandcrafted\u201d films that resonate with a generation that grew up algorithmically fed and is increasingly seeking out things that feel like deliberate choices.<\/p>\n

He noted the irony of the unexpected hits boosting the box office and their origins in user-generated content. <\/p>\n

\u201cSmall-screen creators are helping to power a big-screen moment,\u201d he said. Gen Z directors and storytellers who built their followings on YouTube have now shepherded those audiences into multiplexes. The Gen Z demos for Backrooms<\/em> and Obsession<\/em> are stronger than for The Odyssey<\/em>, his data shows, with younger viewers showing up for their discoveries alongside the canon-builders.<\/p>\n

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A memory moment, in physical form<\/h2>\n

The Odyssey<\/em> has given this experience a tangible form, too. The first narrative feature shot entirely on IMAX cameras, its 70mm runs have been marketed as events in themselves. At Grauman\u2019s Chinese Theatre and other IMAX venues, audiences on designated Sundays walk away with physical strips of 70mm film\u2014a giveaway IMAX has marketed as exclusive to those showings. Within days of the promotion\u2019s launch, Odyssey<\/em> strips were listed on resale sites for dozens of dollars apiece.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is a moment where people are keeping their ticket stubs,\u201d Dergarabedian said, not letting the experience dissolve into a streaming queue. He traced that impulse back a long way, recalling the time he saw 2001: A Space Odyssey<\/em> at Hollywood\u2019s iconic (and soon to reopen) Cinerama Dome in 1968. The echoes for him aren\u2019t about plot but about ritual: The feeling that how and where you see a film becomes part of what it means.<\/p>\n

That logic extends to the air conditioning. Much of North America has been under intense heat advisories this summer; attendance in Europe rose 50% in one stretch of extreme heat as audiences sought cool rooms. Dergarabedian is careful not to draw a straight line to the Great Depression, but he sees continuity in how theaters function when the outside world becomes hard to bear. Movie houses were among the first public spaces to install modern air conditioning, and they marketed \u201crefrigerated air\u201d as aggressively as they advertised their films. <\/p>\n

\u201cLet\u2019s not forget how important air conditioning is,\u201d he said. \u201cBack in the day, movies would advertise air conditioning.\u201d The dark, cool auditorium is once again, in his phrase, \u201cshelter from the storm.\u201d<\/p>\n

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\u201cIt\u2019s the one place you can go, the movie theater, and leave your troubles at the door,\u201d he said. \u201cIf you are appropriately comporting yourself, you are off for two hours.\u201d<\/p>\n

Monoculture\u2019s return, and a BMW<\/h2>\n

Earlier this summer, Dergarabedian noticed attention was being divided between two stories: the FIFA World Cup and The Odyssey<\/em>\u2018s rollout. In his mind, that split is significant\u2014evidence a movie can still compete with global sports for top-of-mind status. Fortune<\/em> asked him: Is the monoculture coming back? <\/p>\n

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\u201cIt is. I actually love it,\u201d he responded.<\/p>\n

He illustrated the point with a story about getting into his car. On his BMW\u2019s screen, an ad appeared: a clapper board, then Spider-Man swinging toward a BMW vehicle, animated, the BMW logo materializing at the end. The surround sound in the car, he said, was insane. He posted it to X. People were divided. But the image stuck with him\u2014Spider-Man marketing appearing through his car\u2019s dormant apps while the car was sleeping, waiting for him.<\/p>\n

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#SpiderMan is spinning a bold marketing web & I was trapped in it! \u2014 this interactive promo unexpectedly popped up on my #BMW screen this morning.
With all signs pointing to the biggest opening weekend of the year thus far, @SonyPictures\/@MarvelStudios is leveraging automotive\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/f6fpy85hEf<\/p>\n

\u2014 Paul Dergarabedian (@PDergarabedian) July 28, 2026<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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Doug Shapiro, a media innovation guru who writes the media strategy newsletter The Mediator<\/em> and serves as senior advisor at Boston Consulting Group, would recognize what Dergarabedian saw. He said the monoculture may be coming back, but offered a very different, very 21st-century economic explanation.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs content proliferates, consumer price sensitivity goes up, willingness-to-pay goes down,\u201d Shapiro told Fortune<\/em>, \u201cand it becomes necessary to monetize content some other way.\u201d His reading of the box office revival is cooler than Dergarabedian\u2019s. <\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a great year in dollars, but not in habits,\u201d he said. Normalized for inflation and population growth, he noted ticket sales per capita are still dramatically down from where they were a decade ago. What\u2019s changed is the bar for when consumers are willing to leave the couch.<\/p>\n

In streaming, Shapiro sees the same dynamic playing out on the other side of the economics. In the first quarter of 2026, 60% of premium streaming gross subscriber additions chose ad-supported tiers, according to Antenna. FAST services like Roku Channel and Tubi are growing their share of viewing time. Disney+ is considering a free tier; Paramount+ is putting more content outside the paywall; Netflix has begun publicly entertaining a no-cost ad-supported option in some markets. The recently struck Peacock-YouTube deal\u2014under which Peacock is bundled into YouTube Premium at what Shapiro estimates as a steep wholesale discount\u2014is, in his view, a bet advertising and lower churn will make up for cannibalized subscription revenue.<\/p>\n

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The mechanism driving both trends is the same: As there is more free content, consumers become more selective about what they\u2019ll pay for, and that has to feel unmissable. Shapiro\u2019s analogy is mobile gaming: AAA console titles cost hundreds of millions and charge you, and mobile games cost orders of magnitude less and are almost entirely free. As AI drives down content production costs, more of what gets made will flood the market at zero marginal price. \u201cMost content will become top-of-funnel for something else,\u201d he has written. When content goes from profit center to cost center, most media companies will struggle to adjust.<\/p>\n

Taken together, the two trends describe a flip that is still in rotation. After decades of prestige living on the small screen, that is fragmenting under streaming\u2019s shift toward free and ad-supported models, structurally vacating the premium tier. The unmissable experience\u2014the thing worth showing up for, worth keeping the ticket stub from\u2014migrates back to wherever scarcity lives. In the mid-2020s, that\u2019s the multiplex\u2014with Spider-Man<\/em> swinging across your BMW screen, too.<\/p>\n

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