{"id":493,"date":"2026-06-01T20:13:12","date_gmt":"2026-06-01T20:13:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=493"},"modified":"2026-06-01T20:13:12","modified_gmt":"2026-06-01T20:13:12","slug":"property-prices-are-down-in-dubai-is-it-a-war-induced-blip-or-something-more-serious","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=493","title":{"rendered":"Property prices are down in Dubai.\u00a0Is it a\u00a0war-induced\u00a0blip, or something more serious?\u00a0\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"
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And the news that the emirate had set a\u00a0new record\u00a0in early March for the largest residential land transaction, valued at AED400m\u00a0($100m), was no exception.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Read more The elderly and injured are using robots as home care support to help them get around their home<\/a><\/p>\n

The deal closed shortly after the outbreak of the Iran\u00a0conflict,\u00a0when multiple missiles and drones were being fired towards Dubai\u00a0on a daily basis.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

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But, while announced\u00a0to\u00a0much fanfare, the news masked a sharp drop in confidence across the broader market.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Real estate transaction volumes in the UAE fell 37% year-on-year in the first\u00a012 days\u00a0of March, and 49% month-on-month, according to analysis by\u00a0Goldman Sachs.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Even before the conflict started, Fitch forecast\u00a0that real estate prices would\u00a0undergo a correction\u2013down\u00a015%\u2013during the period from\u00a0July 2025 until the end of 2026\u00a0following a major real estate rally in the wake of the pandemic.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Dubai\u2019s residential property prices surged by\u00a0roughly 60%\u00a0between 2022 and early 2025\u2013a historic boom\u00a0fueled\u00a0by tax-free incentives, liberalized visa policies, and a heavy influx of high-net-worth individuals.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

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The Iran conflict has disrupted oil supply.\u00a0Gulf states are now looking to multi-billion-dollar\u00a0investments in renewables<\/em><\/p>\n

But\u00a0Fitch\u00a0said\u00a0that the combination of weaker economic activity, reduced tourism and slower population growth will now add further pressure on both residential and commercial real estate markets, resulting in a larger correction than initially forecast.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\u201cWe have\u00a0analyzed\u00a0the loan books of all rated UAE banks, and corporate real estate in particular poses the biggest risk among the areas of the economy most sensitive to conflict-related spillovers,\u201d Anton Lopatin, a Senior Director covering UAE banks at Fitch Ratings, who is based in Dubai, told Fortune<\/em>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Corporate real estate loans pose a bigger risk than other types of real estate loans given they\u00a0often have longer terms (e.g., 5\u201310 years) and are frequently structured as \u201cballoon\u201d or \u201cbullet\u201d\u00a0loans which require borrowers to pay off a massive, localized lump sum at maturity. They are typically secured by real estate, and loan-to-value ratios also increase when market prices decline.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Corporate real estate accounted for 13% of UAE banks\u2019 total loans at year-end 2025, a figure that Fitch estimates remained at around the same level at the end of Q1 2026.\u00a0Retail mortgage lending compromised\u00a0around 10% of total loans.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

By comparison, other high-risk areas such as tourism, hospitality, and aviation together account for less than 5% of total bank loans.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile we do not see a big pressure being exerted on the banking sector\u2019s asset quality for now,\u00a0we\u00a0think that corporate real estate loans are likely to be the main source of new Stage 3 loans if the conflict is prolonged,\u201d said Lopatin.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThis was also the case in previous crises, including\u00a0the\u00a0global financial crisis\u00a0and, more recently, the pandemic, which both led to a rise in Stage 3 loans\u2013otherwise known as credit-impaired or defaulted loans.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Meanwhile, the impact of the war on the residential off-plan market, which has historically been dominated by overseas investors and\u00a0the\u00a0majority\u00a0expatriate population, was immediate.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Off-plan deals\u2013which accounted for 69% of sales transactions and 65% of value in Dubai last year, according to\u00a0the Dubai Land Department\u2013fell 21% month-on-month in March to 9,368 transactions, amid a sharp shift in investor sentiment.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Industry practitioners note that the market correction to date has been most pronounced in off-plan secondary sales, particularly in areas with significant new inventory. Off-plan secondary apartments are, on average, trading 10%\u00a0to 15% below original values in many cases.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\u201cLots of opportunistic investors jumped on the off-plan bandwagon, assuming that prices would keep\u00a0going up\u00a0on a monthly basis, and are now super exposed,\u201d Mario Volpi, senior sales manager at Eva Real Estate agency in Dubai, told Fortune.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\u201cMany of them\u00a0don\u2019t\u00a0have\u00a0the inclination, the money, or the stomach to pay for the next instalment or the next few instalments. Buyers that are looking for distressed sales can find some good deals in that space.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

The war\u2019s impact has\u00a0been felt across all segments of the residential market.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

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At the end of\u00a0May,\u00a0sellers had cut\u00a0listed prices by\u00a0a combined AED2.36bn ($643 million) across 3,292 properties, according to data from LuxuryPriceDrops.com, which tracks daily price reductions on around 27,000 premium Dubai property listings.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The biggest recorded drop was for a property in\u00a0Damac\u00a0Lagoons\u2013an upmarket Mediterranean-inspired villa community with 5km of waterfront space\u2013which had dropped by\u201361.2%, shaving AED300m\u00a0($82m)\u00a0off its value in the process.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Incoming waves of new supply onto the market run the risk of driving prices down further.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Dubai\u2019s development pipeline\u00a0remains\u00a0substantial, with an\u00a0additional\u00a065,000 apartments and 12,500 villas scheduled for delivery by year-end, although a considerable number are now expected to be delayed to 2027 due to severe supply chain bottlenecks.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Moody\u2019s published a research note on 7 May in which it noted that \u201ca sharp slowdown or reversal in population inflows would exacerbate absorption risks at a time of rising completed supply\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

In turn, this could materially\u00a0affect\u00a0the credit profiles of real estate developers over the coming\u00a0months.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

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In a bid to stimulate the market and jumpstart flagging demand, Dubai has scrapped the AED\u00a0750,000 ($204,184) minimum property value previously required for individual buyers to be eligible for a two-year residency visa.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

This move hopes to attract buyers at the lower end of the market and provide a demand boost in that segment.\u00a0<\/p>\n

However, the Iran conflict poses a longer-term threat to Dubai\u2019s appeal to expatriate workers and firms looking to\u00a0establish\u00a0operations in the region which could deflate the real estate market.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Macroeconomic firm Capital Economics has warned that a downturn in Dubai\u2019s real estate market would threaten the emirate\u2019s\u00a0government-related entities,\u00a0most notably Dubai World\u00a0which is heavily exposed to property development through\u00a0its\u00a0property arm Nakheel, Dubai Holding which\u00a0manages one of the largest real estate and land bank portfolios in the UAE\u00a0and Investment Corporation of Dubai which holds major equity in prominent master developer Emaar Properties.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Of course, it was these very entities that became synonymous with Dubai\u2019s infamous 2009 debt crisis after borrowing heavily to\u00a0bankroll\u00a0a slew of\u00a0ambitious real estate projects.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

In its\u00a0research\u00a0note published in April, Capital Economics said:\u00a0\u201cThe risk that severe debt problems emerge remains low for now.\u201d\u00a0It estimates that the three\u00a0GREs\u00a0have about\u00a0$11.5 bn in debt maturing this year, which includes $3.7 bn in bonds, but that banks would\u00a0likely\u00a0step\u00a0in to provide loans\u00a0if bond\u00a0refinancing\u00a0was\u00a0too expensive.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

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The severity of the\u00a02009\u00a0debt fallout prompted the Dubai government to overhaul its real estate sector to restore investor confidence. Authorities implemented stricter regulations, increased market transparency, and\u00a0established\u00a0the Real Estate Regulatory Authority (RERA) to oversee developers and manage disputes over canceled projects.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cDubai\u2019s property market has become much more developed since the crash 15 years ago when prices dropped by\u00a0up to 40-50%,\u2019 said Lopatin.\u00a0\u201cIt\u2019s\u00a0a much more mature market now\u00a0with better oversight\u00a0and the government\u00a0would step in if they needed to because they know that investor confidence is crucial for Dubai.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Read more The Strait of Hormuz is splitting into U.S. and Iranian lanes as ship traffic picks up even while fighting intensifies<\/a><\/p>\n

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