{"id":5346,"date":"2026-08-15T19:38:27","date_gmt":"2026-08-15T19:38:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=5346"},"modified":"2026-08-15T19:38:27","modified_gmt":"2026-08-15T19:38:27","slug":"tariff-refunds-are-juicing-corporate-profits-and-gdp-as-more-tailwinds-converge-to-propel-growth-to-a-blistering-4-3-pace-top-economist-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=5346","title":{"rendered":"Tariff refunds are juicing corporate profits and GDP as more tailwinds converge to propel growth to a blistering 4.3% pace, top economist says"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The refunds are already boosting bottom lines, and 40 companies in the S&P 500 have recorded $9.6 billion, with Apple alone reporting nearly $2.2 billion, according to a Wall Street Journal<\/em> tally. Other top recipients include Nike, FedEx, Amazon, and General Motors.<\/p>\n

Read more Iran business leader admits U.S. blockade will inflict more economic damage than war, and the \u2018worst thing that could happen\u2019 is trying to evade it<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cNot only are tariff refunds boosting corporate earnings, they are also boosting GDP growth,\u201d Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok said in a note on Saturday.<\/p>\n

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He estimated that the refund money will contribute about 0.2 percentage point to third-quarter GDP growth, which the Atlanta Fed says is tracking toward 4.3%.<\/p>\n

That represents a steep acceleration from the second quarter\u2019s gain of just 1.5%, which was skewed by high AI-related imports, as well as 2.1% in the first quarter.<\/p>\n

In the current quarter, the tariff refunds are combining with other positive factors, such as the ongoing AI spending boom, tax cuts from the the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and the reshoring of U.S. manufacturing.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe bottom line is that the U.S. economy continues to be supported by a growing set of tailwinds,\u201d Slok added.<\/p>\n

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The surprisingly weak jobs report for July doesn\u2019t signal the economy is losing momentum, he wrote, attributing sharp drops in government payrolls and hospitality employment to quirks in seasonal adjustments.<\/p>\n

After backing out those sectors, the economy would\u2019ve added 70,000 jobs, in line with Wall Street\u2019s consensus, instead of losing 23,000 jobs.<\/p>\n

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In addition, jobless claims have hovered around 200,000 a week, and the number of job openings has been rising over the past six months, Slok pointed out.<\/p>\n

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\u201cIn short, the market is underestimating how strong growth is right now,\u201d he said. \u201cAs a result, rates will stay higher for longer.\u201d<\/p>\n

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The refunds so far represent about 60% of the $166 billion in revenues collected from import taxes under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which were\u00a0struck down by the Supreme Court\u00a0in February.<\/p>\n

But some U.S. consumers want to see some of that money reach their own wallets and are filing lawsuits against companies to demand it. Firms such as\u00a0Amazon, FedEx and UPS, however,\u00a0have vowed to return the funds to customers.<\/p>\n

Earlier this month, analysts at Bank of America said in a note that retailers are using the money that\u2019s been returned to them to fund promotions as well as offset\u00a0freight and\u00a0other supply-chain\u00a0costs.\u00a0<\/p>\n

BofA also expects\u00a0some\u00a0retailers\u00a0will\u00a0work with\u00a0brands\u00a0to recoup some tariff money, either via direct payments or future purchase order negotiations.<\/p>\n

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\u201cOutside of\u00a0this, companies\u00a0have the optionality to\u00a0use refunds to invest in the business (i.e. AI\/tech)\u00a0or return\u00a0capital\u00a0to shareholders,\u201d analysts added.<\/p>\n

Read more $38 billion Twilio CEO wakes at 4:30 a.m., works Sundays, and runs laps around his house between meetings to blow off steam<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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