{"id":5546,"date":"2026-08-19T10:42:37","date_gmt":"2026-08-19T10:42:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=5546"},"modified":"2026-08-19T10:42:37","modified_gmt":"2026-08-19T10:42:37","slug":"the-iranians-have-trump-right-where-they-want-him-and-suggest-he-seek-a-dignified-exit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=5546","title":{"rendered":"The Iranians have Trump right where they want him and suggest he seek \u2018a dignified exit\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"
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ONE BIG THING<\/h3>

Bond vigilantes are on the move as Treasury market blows through Scott Bessent\u2019s red lines<\/b><\/h2>\n

The bond market is currently pricing risk correctly, according to Johns Hopkins economist Steve Hanke\u2014and what it\u2019s pricing in is ugly. <\/span>In an interview with <\/span>Fortune\u2019s<\/span><\/i> Nick Lichtenberg<\/span>, Hanke argued that President Trump has inadvertently mixed what he called \u201ca deadly cocktail\u201d for Treasuries, and the result is a bond selloff that has already pushed yields past the informal threshold Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been trying to defend.<\/span><\/p>

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Hanke said, \u201cthe bond vigilantes have come out of hibernation\u201d in reference to the investors who have served as the scourge of administrations for decades, selling government debt <\/span>en masse<\/span><\/i> to punish what they see as reckless fiscal or monetary policy, ultimately driving yields higher until policymakers change course. As yields rise, so do the interest rates on a range of consumer credit products like mortgages and car loans\u2014making the cost of borrowing more expensive for everyone.<\/span><\/p>

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Bessent has said he wants the 10-year yield to carry a \u201c3 handle\u201d\u2014meaning below 4%\u2014and multiple reports describe a widely understood marker around 4.5% on the 10-year and 5% on the 30-year as his upper red lines. The problem: the 10-year is at 4.696%, and the 30-year is at 5.284%. The latter hasn\u2019t been that high since roughly 2003.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh<\/b> has declined to give the market \u201cforward guidance\u201d and investors have responded to that uncertainty by selling off U.S. bonds. \u201cThe rise in the term premium and bear steepening of the curve following Warsh\u2019s first two FOMC meetings could indicate that the Fed\u2019s credibility is being tested,\u201d Alpine Macro\u2019s Bassam Nawfal said in a note. However, he forecasts that incoming inflation data will be soft and thus stop the Fed from raising rates further this year.<\/span><\/p>\n