{"id":5548,"date":"2026-08-19T11:11:33","date_gmt":"2026-08-19T11:11:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=5548"},"modified":"2026-08-19T11:11:33","modified_gmt":"2026-08-19T11:11:33","slug":"top-economist-on-trumps-deadly-cocktail-for-the-bond-market-and-how-the-bond-vigilantes-have-crossed-scott-bessents-red-line","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=5548","title":{"rendered":"Top economist on Trump\u2019s \u2018deadly cocktail\u2019 for the bond market\u2014and how the bond vigilantes have crossed Scott Bessent\u2019s \u2018red line\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u201cIt\u2019s a deadly cocktail,\u201d Hanke offered. He said \u201cthe bond vigilantes have come out of hibernation\u201d in reference to the investors that have served as the scourge of administrations for decades, selling government debt en masse to punish what they see as reckless fiscal or monetary policy, ultimately driving yields higher until policymakers change course. The term was coined by economist Ed Yardeni in a 1983 paper, where he wrote that if fiscal and monetary authorities wouldn\u2019t regulate the economy, \u201cthe bond investors will.\u201d<\/p>\n

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James Carville, Bill Clinton\u2019s chief political strategist, gave the idea a famous endorsement a decade later, saying he wanted to be reincarnated as the bond market: \u201cYou can intimidate everybody.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Hanke said he expects the 10-year yield could climb another 50 basis points, adding that he will be \u201cvery bearish\u201d on bonds, \u201cfor quite some time.\u201d<\/p>\n

Three ingredients in the cocktail<\/h2>\n

Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins and a special counselor at the Center for Financial Stability, as well as a Fortune<\/em> senior contributing columnist, laid out the selloff as the product of three distinct forces, ranked in order of importance.<\/p>\n

The first and most important, he said, is monetary. \u201cThe first thing is always money.\u201d Hanke pointed to Divisia M4\u2014the broadest and, in his view, most reliable measure of the money supply, produced by the Center for Financial Stability and tracked by monetary economist William Barnett. This is growing at 6.7% year-over-year, above what his own \u201cGolden Growth Rate\u201d of roughly 6%, the pace he sees as consistent with the Fed\u2019s 2% inflation target.<\/p>\n

That acceleration follows what Hanke calls the \u201cbathtub\u201d dynamic\u2014a framework he has explained in previous Fortune<\/em> interviews, likening the supply of money to water into an already full bathtub. The massive pandemic-era liquidity bubble has largely drained out of the financial system, he said, and the tub is now refilling. \u201cIt\u2019s going to be a long time until inflation is at 2%,\u201d he said, referring to the Federal Reserve\u2019s target rate of inflation, and he argued that inflation expectations\u2014not just realized inflation\u2014are what drive bond yields, and those expectations are being fed by faster money growth. \u201cThe inflation genie\u2019s out of the bottle, and it\u2019s not going back in,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

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Wall Street strategists say the breach is rattling the Treasury Secretary directly\u2014and the most concrete evidence is an extraordinary policy action on July 31, the same day the 30-year yield hit 5.27%. The U.S. joined Japan in a coordinated yen-buying operation, the first joint currency intervention between the two countries since 1998. The explicit concern was that a falling yen would push Tokyo to sell a portion of its $1.114 trillion in U.S. Treasury holdings to defend its currency \u2014 a dump that would send yields even higher. Bessent\u2019s notepad from a Camp David cabinet meeting visibly listed \u201cBuy Japanese Yen (JPY) $5\u201310 bil.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bloomberg reporting from early August separately described Bessent sending signals that he was eager to keep bond yields from spiking higher, with his focus squarely on the 10-year because it underpins mortgage rates and other consumer borrowing costs. Reuters similarly frames the current yield curve moves as exposing \u201cTrump\u2019s and Bessent\u2019s rate dilemma,\u201d noting the disconnect between where Bessent wants yields and where the market has pushed them.<\/p>\n

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Hanke argued that dynamic is now fully in play\u2014and that it has already blown through the threshold Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been informally defending.<\/p>\n

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Bessent has said he wants the 10-year yield to carry a \u201c3 handle\u201d\u2014meaning below 4%\u2014and multiple reports describe a widely understood marker around 4.5% on the 10-year and 5% on the 30-year as his effective red line. Hanke called it a \u201cred line\u201d for the Treasury Secretary, adding that it was a consensus view. \u201cIt\u2019s reading the tea leaves,\u201d he said, calling it a \u201ccommonly understood red line, not unique to Hanke.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Hanke pointed to a chart he prepared several days earlier on the 10-year yield, arguing that it tells the entire story of the end of the long bull market in bonds, showing that \u201ceven before you get to the new Trump administration, the market was under pressure.\u201d The sudden upswing in June 2021 coincides with inflation peaking at 9.1% and the bond vigilantes coming out of their cave, he said. <\/p>\n

Stocks are \u2018sleepwalking,\u2019 oil is underpriced<\/h2>\n

Hanke\u2019s broader argument is that the bond market is the only part of the financial system currently pricing risk with any discipline. \u201cThe equity market is sleepwalking along,\u201d he said, driven by a \u201cstock market mania,\u201d driven by \u201cAI hype.\u201d He said he believes commodity markets are similarly mispricing risk: crude oil inventories are running toward the bottom of the barrel, in his view, setting up oil prices to \u201ccome roaring back\u201d within the next month or two, even though refined products like gasoline and diesel are already reflecting tightness. He attributes shrinking refining capacity to Ukrainian strikes knocking Russian refineries offline and disruption to Middle Eastern refining capacity.<\/p>\n

As for whether the equity bubble will deflate, Hanke was careful to hedge: \u201cIt\u2019s virtually impossible\u201d to predict when a bubble pops, he said, \u201cwith one exception\u201d\u2014if a central bank starts visibly tightening monetary policy and the money supply slows, the odds of a pop rise dramatically. Rising long-term rates, he argued, can function the same way, gradually \u201cletting air out of the stock market\u201d even without a formal Fed tightening cycle.<\/p>\n

Hanke pushed back hard on the idea of a \u201cquiet default\u201d by the United States, calling the framing absurd. The U.S. has never defaulted and, in his view, never will, \u201cas long as we have the international currency\u201d\u2014a dynamic he says makes a Venezuela-, Argentina-, or African-sovereign-style default a non-starter. He remains, in his words, \u201con the side of king dollar,\u201d arguing the currency isn\u2019t going anywhere anytime soon despite the reserve-currency erosion narrative gaining traction elsewhere.<\/p>\n

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He acknowledged that tariff threats and sanctions policy are corrosive to the dollar\u2019s standing, but argued other forces are pushing the other way: dollar usage in global transactions has actually increased over the past three years. The euro has lost some ground over that period, he said, while the Chinese renminbi has gained share in percentage terms \u2014 but from such a small base that the gain is \u201calmost a footnote.\u201d In his framing, the renminbi\u2019s gains are coming largely at the euro\u2019s expense, not the dollar\u2019s. He dismissed \u201cde-dollarization\u201d as a durable trend, pointing out that over the past 120 years there have been only 14 dominant international currencies, and challenges to the reigning one are historically rare\u2014the pound sterling\u2019s loss of primacy to the dollar, tied to Britain\u2019s loss of its colonies, being the closest precedent in living memory. He allowed that pointing to that one episode risks recency bias, but maintained the broader historical pattern still favors continuity over disruption.<\/p>\n

Hanke\u2019s closing argument is that the repricing happening in bonds will eventually spread. \u201cWhen everybody else stops sleepwalking and starts pricing things in properly, there will be adjustments,\u201d he said\u2014adjustments he expects to show up first in equities as the \u201cstock market bubble\u201d starts to deflate. Whether that ends in a sharp pop or a slower deflation, he said, is impossible to call with confidence. But the signal he\u2019s watching most closely is simple: if the 30-year and other long rates keep climbing, that alone could do the work of letting air out of stocks, without the Fed lifting a finger. \u201cThe bond vigilantes are always kind of ahead of the curve,\u201d Hanke said, \u201cand I think they are this time.\u201d<\/p>\n

For this story,\u00a0<\/em>Fortune\u00a0journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.<\/em><\/p>\n

Read more Princeton\u2019s \u2018AI Snake Oil\u2019 author says the real fear isn\u2019t thinking machines\u2014it\u2019s that AI exposes who already knows how to think<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“The bond vigilantes have come out of hibernation,” Johns Hopkins’ Steve Hanke told Fortune, and “the inflation genie is out of the bottle.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5547,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[359],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bonds"],"yoast_head":"\nTop economist on Trump\u2019s \u2018deadly cocktail\u2019 for the bond market\u2014and how the bond vigilantes have crossed Scott Bessent\u2019s \u2018red line\u2019 - Cross Country Moving Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=5548\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Top economist on Trump\u2019s \u2018deadly cocktail\u2019 for the bond market\u2014and how the bond vigilantes have crossed Scott Bessent\u2019s \u2018red line\u2019 - 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