{"id":5667,"date":"2026-08-20T20:42:59","date_gmt":"2026-08-20T20:42:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=5667"},"modified":"2026-08-20T20:42:59","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T20:42:59","slug":"exclusive-venezuela-sick-with-hyperinflation-engages-the-money-doctor-steve-hanke-for-a-dose-of-dollarization-medicine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=5667","title":{"rendered":"Exclusive: Venezuela, sick with hyperinflation, engages the \u2018money doctor\u2019 Steve Hanke for a dose of dollarization medicine"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The success that the professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University has had in advising governments across three continents \u2014 whether achieving straight \u201cdollarization\u201d or establishing Hong Kong-like currency boards that fix their monies to the greenback \u2014\u00a0has won him the title, you might even say the \u201cbrand,\u201d of globetrotting \u201cMoney Doctor.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Read more Trump oblivious to voter fury about data centers, saying \u2018the jobs are enormous and the money paid, the taxes paid, are just enormous\u2019<\/a><\/p>\n

Now, the doctor\u2019s making the most important house call of his career. Venezuela\u2019s National Assembly has just named him Special Adviser on Economic, Monetary, and Energy Affairs, tasking him with curing hyperinflation now running at a 400% annual clip \u2014\u00a0the worst in the world \u2014\u00a0as the country tries to rebuild after the ouster of Nicolas Maduro. Hanke\u2019s fix: a full dollarization law that would abolish the bolivar and the central bank outright. He told Fortune<\/em> he puts the odds of passage at 50% to 80% \u2014\u00a0the best shot that sound money has had in Venezuela since the country rejected the money doctor\u2019s last surgery attempt, three decades ago.<\/p>\n

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What does a money doctor have to do with oil? The problems are deeply interconnected. The nation of 29 million boasts arguably the greatest \u201cunderground\u201d wealth in Latin America via holding the world\u2019s largest crude oil reserves and immense wealth in minerals from copper to lithium, and still harbors a highly-sophisticated professional class. Meanwhile, an exiled intelligentsia numbering in the millions stands ready to return and rebuild their stricken homeland.\u00a0<\/p>\n

They won\u2019t return until the oil-driven economy revives and Venezuela is producing just 1.1 million barrels per day, around 1.3% of the world total and one-third the pre-Chavez mark of 3.4 million in 1998. Shockingly, it\u2019s only a little over 7% more than before Maduro\u2019s exit, not what the administration hoped after the U.S. Special Forces raid on January 3rd that removed Maduro, the dictator who savaged the economy.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cTaming inflation is the key to restoring stability in Venezuela, and all the other progress flows from that,\u201d Hanke told Fortune<\/em>. \u201cStability isn\u2019t everything, but without stability, which means stable prices, you have nothing. And there\u2019s no better case study showing that\u2019s true than Venezuela.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ramping oil output is the ticket to restructuring Venezuela\u2019s mountainous $250 billion debt load, equal to roughly 150% of GDP, the highest number in Latin America and fourth in the world. It was sending crude to China as part of a repayment program for as much as $15 billion in loans from Beijing.<\/p>\n

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The U.S. and other foreign enterprises that could make it happen remain on the sidelines, fearing the kind of expropriations inflicted under Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chavez. The government led by President Delcy Rodriguez has so far failed to pass new laws that sufficiently safeguard private property rights, progress essential to attracting heavy overseas investment.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Today, U.S. oil majors are purchasing Venezuelan oil, shipped mostly to China only a year ago, for their Gulf Coast refineries specializing in its staple heavy crude. But none has committed capital to reviving the country\u2019s devastated petroleum infrastructure, even though the Trump Administration is basically now decision-maker for the state-owned oil enterprise, PDVSA. Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods expressed his concern that Venezuela won\u2019t \u201cuphold the sanctity of contracts\u201d and slammed its past record of \u201csteal[ing] investments,\u201d concluding that the sleeping oil colossus is currently \u201cuninvestible.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

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In short, Venezuela is facing the biggest lender-borrower workout ever. Crude is the country\u2019s life blood, accounting for as much as 98% of the country\u2019s exports. In any new agreement, petroleum production would provide virtually the entire flow of dollars required for paying principal and interest to its creditors. The faster that Venezuela generates petrodollars, the better the deal it will get from the lender group comprising the governments of Russia and China, distressed debt hedge funds, ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil, and the quicker an accord gets signed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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By Hanke\u2019s calculation, prices measured in Venezuela\u2019s coin of the realm, the bolivar, are now rising at a 400% annual clip. That\u2019s down from 700% before Maduro\u2019s capture, but it\u2019s still 6x the figure in Iran and tops in the world by far. It\u2019s an 8% weekly increase in prices for eggs, beef and rent paid by consumers, along with electric bills, salaries and taxes by companies, and in turn it\u2019s crushing purchasing power and profits.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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As Hanke points out, the stalled oil industry and raging inflation have a seesaw, cause-and-effect relationship. \u201cWhen oil revenues dried up because the government let the infrastructure fall apart, it paid its bills, including paying government employees and pensioners, by printing money,\u201d he observes. And even post-Maduro, that\u2019s still the practice. It\u2019s the punishing option Hanke wants to totally eliminate.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Hanke has drafted a full \u201cdollarization\u201d law that would shelve the bolivar and replace it with the world\u2019s reserve currency. It would also shutter the central bank, ending the government\u2019s ability to issue new money and manipulate interest rates. On the project, Hanke is working closely the dollarization advocate Antonio Ecarri, 52, an Assembly member and former presidential candidate, and founder of the pragmatic, centrist Pencil Alliance party.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This is Hanke\u2019s second shot at battling Big Inflation in Venezuela. In 1995 and 1996, he designed the blueprint for a currency board while serving as chief economic adviser to President Rafael Caldera. That plan failed to win a majority in the National Assembly. This time, Hanke said he believes that sound monetary reform finally stands a good chance, pointing to numerous surveys showing that the vast majority of Venezuelans want to dump the bolivar and adopt the dollar.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Hanke estimates the odds the bill will pass in the Assembly and become law at 50% to 80%. That such an upheaval is even somewhat likely may seem farfetched, but at the very least, the possibility is supported by the facts on the ground: If they\u2019re not paid in bolivars, Venezuelan shoppers are already buying virtually everything in greenbacks. And so far, the Trump Administration seems fine with this grassroots near-takeover for the U.S. currency.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\u201cIt would be the biggest switch from domestic currencies to an alternative since the introduction of the Euro in 1999,\u201d intones Hanke. Still, dollarization would prove an incredibly bold gambit for a nation of Venezuela\u2019s size and importance. It also introduces policy constraints that opponents abhor because they eliminate monetary discretion, but that Hanke swears are actually beneficial. He stresses that dollarization blocks a nation from depreciating its currency \u201con the phony grounds\u201d of gaining more competitiveness. If that were the case, he argues, \u201cVenezuela would be the most competitive economy in the world. The bolivar has lost 78% of its value to the U.S. dollar in the past year.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Still, charismatic leaders who have pushed for dollarization have failed to date, suggesting that the patient may not want the money doctor\u2019s medicine. Case in point: In Argentina, President Javier Milei ran on a peso-to-greenback platform in 2023, but abandoned the plan while in office, in favor of a conservative monetary and fiscal policy that lowered inflation somewhat, though prices are still chugging at over 30% a year, and proving an albatross around Javier Milei\u2019s neck.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The resistance that dollarization often meets with isn\u2019t just political cowardice \u2014\u00a0it reflects a real and almost permanent trade-off. A company that dollarizes gives up its currency-printing power, along with tools that many economists consider essential in a crisis: seignorage, the revenue a government earns from issuing its own money, and the ability to act as lender of last resort to its own banks.Dollarization is also much harder to reverse than a currency board, something Hanke consider an advantage.<\/em> All told, it\u2019s usually a price worth paying when hyperinflation climbs to the worst level in the world, or close to it.<\/p>\n

Hanke predicts that dollarization will ignite the Venezuelan economy overnight. The monetary transformation would unlock a flood of animal spirits, he claims. \u201cIf it happens soon, Venezuela would take off from negative growth this year to positive growth next year,\u201d he says. \u201cYou\u2019d get big foreign investment flowing into the oil sector, and for example, the broken electrical infrastructure that\u2019s subject to daily blackouts. It\u2019s tough to renegotiate debt in an unstable and uncertain environment of almost 400% inflation. If you\u2019re holding Venezuelan debt, the rise in oil exports would tremendously increase expectations of getting your money back. The debt resolution would occur far more rapidly.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Today, consumer loans are virtually extinct in Venezuela. No one can get a mortgage in bolivar. The low rates brought by dollarization, notes Hanke, would create an extensive credit market from scratch that would drive domestic business investment and fire the housing market. Venezuela would be Hanke\u2019s biggest dollarization yet in a nearly 50-year career of engineering the biggest ones on three continents.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The swift rebound when a nation switches from a wobbling to hard currency is a scenario Hanke has witnessed many times before in his adventures as the Money Doctor. And he wants to make it clear that it\u2019s the fruits of those dollarizations and currency boards, not his salesmanship, that gets governments to enlist his expertise. (By the way, he clarified to Fortune<\/em>, \u201cthe term dollarization refers to any change from a weak local currency to a major, stable one, not just to the dollar.)\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\u201cThe bottom line is that the leaders in these countries know who the Money Doctor is,\u201d he avows. \u201cAnd they know what works. I never offer my services, the best way to do it is not to peddle. Waiting for the call is how you make sure the government is really serious about getting it done.\u201d He also does the work pro bono and pays his own way, \u201cSo then you have the freedom to say and recommend what you want to.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Indeed, Hanke absolutely relishes the task at hand. In a long campaign wielding the sword, converting Venezuela to the dollar would stand as his biggest dragon-slaying victory ever. His five-decade record is a living referendum on the dollarization debate: where the political commitment held, inflation has largely vanished for good; where the commitment didn\u2019t hold, the hard currency proved only as durable as the government that adopted it.<\/p>\n

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Hanke\u2019s been the architect in all three of the four cases in the last quarter-century where a state switched from a hyperinflating to a hard currency since World War II. The first came in Montenegro, the Adriatic nation bordered on the south by Albania and on the north by Bosnia-Herzegovina. As a cabinet member, he persuaded Montenegro in 1999 to dump the hyper-inflating Yugoslav dinar for the Deutschemark. Hanke even survived a close call when Yugoslav strongman Slobodan Milosevic spread rumors the economist was a French spy and dispatched a hit squad to assassinate him. Montenegro remains a hard-currency domain: After the European monetary union arrived in 1992, the Euro replaced the Deutschemark as its legal tender.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Next, Hanke moved on to Ecuador. As a counselor to the minister of finance in 2000, he oversaw its switch from the wobbling sucre to the dollar. It was the first dollarization in Latin America since Panama a century earlier, and El Salvador followed suit a year later. In the past two decades Ecuador has enjoyed one of the world\u2019s lowest inflation rates. But critics cite that it has also lost the ability to devalue and has hence ceded market share in cut-flower exports to Colombia.<\/p>\n

In 2009, Hanke again traded continents. He became informal advisor to the new prime minister of Zimbabwe, Morgan Tsvangirai, who served as a head of a relatively enlightened National Unity government that included the opposition under dictator Robert Mugabe. (\u201cI didn\u2019t want to be official, because Mugabe and his henchmen would have posed a danger to any foreigner who showed up on the radar,\u201d Hanke recalls.)\u00a0<\/p>\n

The scenario echoed the current one in Venezuela. People en masse refused to use the Zimbabwe \u201cdollar.\u201d To avert a crisis, the government at first allowed its citizenry to use U.S. dollars instead. The greenback effectively took control by popular acclaim. Then in 2009, Zimbabwe officially dollarized, and as Hanke puts it, \u201cInflation virtually disappeared.\u201d When the National Unity Government fell in 2013, so did dollarization, and triple-digit inflation returned to Zimbabwe. It was a live demonstration that dollarization\u2019s stability is politically contingent, not permanent.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Prior to those dollarizations, Hanke helped institute a number of \u201ccurrency boards,\u201d where inflation-plagued nations keep their local currencies but tie their value to the dollar or the Euro at a fixed exchange rate, and hold the reserves in the anchor currency equal to the money in circulation. Folks or businesses can exchange the local money for, say, dollars or euros at any time.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In 1991, Hanke advised Argentine President Carlos Menem to institute a currency board, but Menem chose a weaker \u201cconvertibility\u201d alternative that still for years enabled the nation to thrive. But in 1995, Menem requested that Hanke draft a dollarization law that never advanced. Then in 2001, the convertibility system collapsed, and inflation collapsed and the peso took off, suggesting that dollarization treats a symptom of the disease, not the underlying cause.<\/p>\n

Four years later, Hanke earned great controversy, and the enmity of the Clinton administration, by heeding a request from Indonesia\u2019s president Suharto. Evening after evening, Hanke joined the strongman in a small den at his private residence as they huddled to design a blueprint for a stable rupiah. But President Clinton, according to Hanke, wanted Suharto gone, and feared that sound money could keep him in power. Clinton deployed the threat of withholding billions in aid to nix the Hanke plan, and a weak rupiah hastened Suharto\u2019s departure months later. It was a lesson in how a country\u2019s monetary anchor can become a lever that foreign powers pull for their own political ends, not a neutral technical fix.<\/p>\n

Hanke also designed or advised on currency boards in Estonia, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Bosnia \u2014\u00a0all of which still anchor to the euro today \u2014\u00a0and pushed similar plans in Kazakhstan that stalled on Moscow\u2019s objections, respectively. Moscow preferred a weak, unstable tenge [the nation\u2019s currency], and a neighbor that was not sure-footed,\u201d he explained. His exploits were never less than swashbuckling, like the time he was greeted in Albania by a deputy prime minister with a revolver strapped to his waist, standing before a picture of Mother Teresa. That country\u2019s currency board didn\u2019t end up going through.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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It\u2019s been quite a journey from a boy who grew up in rural Iowa, working on his grandfather\u2019s egg operation, and became fascinated by the farmer\u2019s practice of selling supplies \u201cforward\u201d on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Divining that investors could make money simply by speculating on contracts he opened a CME account trading soybeans at age 14. By the 1980s, he served as chief economist at famed Toronto commodities firm Friedberg Mercantile, where he advised a massive short position in crude, betting that Saudi Arabia was set to punish its fellow OPEC members for brazenly cheating on their quotas. Histiming was quicksilver when oil prices tumbled from $30 to under $10.\u00a0<\/p>\n

For Venezuela, Hanke\u2019s championing a maverick strategy he first formed while serving on the UAE\u2019s financial advisory council from 2008 to 2014. In that role, Hanke developed a framework showing that the federation would generate the greatest wealth for its people over time by pumping as much oil as possible. \u201cI called it the \u2018take the money and run strategy,\u2019\u201d he says.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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But OPEC was imposing a tight limit on how much oil the UAE could sell. \u201cThe UAE kept pushing for a much higher quota, and OPEC kept saying no,\u201d says Hanke. He advised the UAE to exit OPEC. But UAE remained a reluctant member, while accepting Hanke\u2019s view that the cap greatly curbed the true value of the deposits under its sands. Hanke stayed in touch with the UAE authorities, and kept recommending the split.\u00a0<\/p>\n

On May 1, 2026, the UAE departed OPEC after 59 years of membership. Hanke\u2019s convinced it was his analysis of the economics that inspired the move. \u201cI argued that unless oil prices rise a lot in real terms, the longer you wait to produce, the lower the \u2018present value\u2019 of the reserves,\u2019\u201d he says. \u201cThat\u2019s exactly the argument that motivated the UAE\u2019s leaving. It was because of the framework I\u2019d been counseling for almost 20 years.\u201d In four months on its own, the UAE has lifted production 80% from 600,000 to 1.1 million bbd, on track to raise an extra $15 billion annualized revenue.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Venezuelans are abandoning the bolivar already in a kind of \u201cspontaneous dollarization,\u201d Hanke said, raising the chances the switch will become official. Hanke\u2019s brief also encompasses advising on energy policy. And he\u2019s recommending a bold stance he\u2019s successfully advocated to major OPEC-rejector the UAE that can be summarized as, \u201cpump to the max, baby.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Hanke\u2019s prescription to produce as much of the black stuff as possible, as fast as possible is colliding with the world\u2019s lowest \u201cdepletion rate,\u201d meaning the percentage of its reserves produced each year. Venezuela is extracting just 0.2% of its 380 billion barrels in reserves each year. It would take the nation 350 years to exhaust just one-half of its below-ground supply. Venezuela\u2019s depletion rate\u2019s one-fourth the Saudi figure of 1.2%, and one third one-fifth Kuwait\u2019s 1.5%. The number for ExxonMobil and other majors is estimated in the 6% to 7% range, meaning they\u2019d exhaust half their reserves in roughly a decade. \u201cWhen you apply a discount rate to all the time it takes to get Venezuela\u2019s oil out of the ground, the present value of a huge amount of their oil is effectively zero, and at these anemic production rates, it\u2019s amazing how little the world\u2019s biggest deposits are worth.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Of course, the reason Venezuela lags by such a huge margin is the dilapidated state of its oil infrastructure. In Hanke\u2019s vision, as dollarization brings big investment to its petroleum patch, Caracas should take a position similar to the super-aggressive posture pursued by the UAE. Today, Venezuela\u2019s an OPEC member, but remains such a petty producer that it doesn\u2019t merit a quota at all. \u201cBut as capacity increases, the government should keep pushing for bigger and bigger quotas to match those capacity gains,\u201d says Hanke. \u201cIf OPEC refuses, Venezuela should do just what the UAE did, drop out, and pump a lot more.\u201d Hanke proudly adds that Venezuela will gain clout from a credible example when it constantly pushes for higher production caps: If the UAE can walk out, and collect multiple billions in added revenue, so can Venezuela. \u201cThat Venezuela has the same advisor who advised the UAE also adds to its clout,\u201d he declares.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Put simply, Hanke sees Venezuela\u2019s future as the world\u2019s leading oil maverick that will go rogue if OPEC\u2019s strictures prevent it from maximizing the worth of its sumptuous reserves. Once again, the best sign that Venezuela\u2019s ready for the dollar is that pretty much everyone not employed by the government, or receiving state aid or pensions in bolivar, is using the world\u2019s most prized and safest currency. <\/p>\n

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In 2019, the bolivar lost almost all of its value, forcing Maduro to allow full convertibility into dollars. Today, all prices in the stores are posted in dollars. The payments take two forms, physical dollars, or dollar-backed stablecoins; the most popular by far is USDT, known as Tether, which accounts for the vast bulk of remittances from abroad. As Hanke notes, the use of Tether accelerates the shift to the dollar, since it\u2019s convertible into greenbacks. The rub: Some 7 million public employees and pensioners get paid in a bolivar that\u2019s losing a third of its worth every month. The sums they receive can\u2019t keep pace with the prices of the likes of food, medicine and rent. \u201cThat\u2019s why they[re dumping their bolivars and getting dollars as fast as they can. And the constant crunch on a huge swath of the nation\u2019s purchasing power is an enormous drag on the economy,\u201d says Hanke.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Still, Venezuela\u2019s already gone a long way towards something Hanke calls a \u201cspontaneous dollarization.\u201d The phenomenon garnered an interesting reaction from Francisco Zalles, the Ecuadorian economist with whom Hanke worked in dollarizing that economy a quarter-century ago, and recently collaborated on a Spanish book about its success. \u201cThe Venezuelans have already chosen the currency they want,\u201d said Zalles. The citizens are voting with their wallets, and it\u2019s a landslide. The Money Doctor\u2019s crusade will be a tough one. But it boosts his chances of success that the currency he advocates already reigns as the people\u2019s choice.<\/p>\n

Read more Bessent becomes most interventionist Treasury chief in decades<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Johns Hopkins professor has spent five decades traveling the world, fighting for the cause of sound money. 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