{"id":6092,"date":"2026-08-27T04:13:59","date_gmt":"2026-08-27T04:13:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=6092"},"modified":"2026-08-27T04:13:59","modified_gmt":"2026-08-27T04:13:59","slug":"the-saaspocalypse-that-wasnt-how-salesforce-booking-and-ibm-are-thriving-with-ai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=6092","title":{"rendered":"The SaaSpocalypse that wasn\u2019t \u2013 how Salesforce, Booking and IBM are thriving with AI\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Over the last year, approximately $2 trillion in software value has been torched on fears that AI will render many software businesses obsolete in the years ahead, in what has become known as the \u201cSaaSpocalpyse,\u201d prematurely announcing the death of the software as a service (SaaS) sector. <\/p>\n

Read more Dubai airport traffic plunged 31% as the Iran war sent travelers looking for routes outside the Middle East<\/a><\/p>\n

The original\u00a0SaaSpocalpyse thesis of \u201cdeath,\u201d or at least massive disruption, was how bears were thinking in the early part of the year, but that bearish thesis has now morphed into a less drastic, but still incorrect, theme of how software companies will have to pay more for customer acquisition moving forward with far less pricing power, compressing margins and hindering profitability.<\/p>\n

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Just as the classic 1979 Francis Ford Coppola film Apocalypse Now<\/em> was based on a fictional delirium, so, perhaps is the SaasSpocalyse now.<\/p>\n

Yes: there is no question that many high-flying technology winners will be under increasing competitive threat from autonomous AI agents moving forward, and the list of companies that look vulnerable is a long one.\u00a0<\/p>\n

At the same time, the panicked investor stampede to the exits across software firms has wrongly punished several of the clearest beneficiaries from AI as if they were obvious casualties. Three examples \u2013 Salesforce, Booking Holdings, and IBM \u2013 illustrate how, contrary to short-term market fears, there are certain software companies well positioned to become big AI winners in the long term, with greater profitability and pricing power from AI-driven wins, not less.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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The misleading bearish AI scenario has an appealing simplicity for some anxious analysts. <\/p>\n

Salesforce, the leading customer relationship management (CRM) system, was wrongly predicted to be facing obsolescence by LLM companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, whose autonomous AI agents would presumably manage customer relationships from beginning to end.\u00a0 This led misinformed critics to demote Salesforce from its robust position as the central command center of a business to that of merely a passive database sitting in the background that agents occasionally query. The erroneous presumption was that the AI models would capture all the value, and Salesforce would be relegated to being an interchangeable commodity if not entirely redundant. Down roughly 20% this year and 40% from its high, the stock has been priced for precisely that faulty diagnosis.<\/p>\n

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These confused critics read the dynamic backwards. Salesforce isn\u2019t what\u2019s being commoditized; it\u2019s the LLMs, and in this new world, data is the new moat \u2013 and Salesforce has the data. As analysts at Wells Fargo declared, \u201clower cost of intelligence increases value of incumbent data.\u201d<\/p>\n

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At the end of the day, AI agents are only as good as the data on which they operate. An AI agent working on closing a sale still needs somewhere to research the customer, log new interactions, store the contract, and customize the terms \u2013 and it needs decades of customer data and history to understand what all of it means. That\u2019s where Salesforce comes in, as the ultimate repository of customer data.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Despite analysts\u2019 delusions, Salesforce in reality has processed over 216 trillion customer records this year alone, and still counting. All that customer data, ranging from key customer contacts, to deal histories, to support tickets, to marketing interactions and histories, already lives inside Salesforce for virtually every major company. There is no way to just rip that out and store it inside a LLM instead of Salesforce \u2013 nor would anyone want to trust a LLM as the repository of all their proprietary customer data. Clean, unified, trusted data is exactly what AI agents need to function well, and Salesforce has more of it than anyone, with built-in security and confidentiality protections far surpassing LLMs.\u00a0<\/p>\n

No wonder the results reflect Salesforce\u2019s position as an emerging AI winner. Agentforce, Salesforce\u2019s AI agent platform, has gone from $100 million to $1.5 billion in annual recurring revenue within 18 months of launch, with well over 30,000 Agentforce deals already closed amidst exciting new partnerships with Anthropic\u2019s Claude as the premier agent inside Agentforce. All those AI agents are producing more and more data by an exponential factor, which conveniently needs to be stored within Salesforce, with Salesforce ingesting 104 trillion records last quarter alone, double that of just last quarter. <\/p>\n

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And interestingly, the long-underestimated acquisition of Slack has become extraordinarily important to Salesforce\u2019s AI future, as Slack is where key decisions are argued out, providing agents with critical context and human insights they would have never been able to glean from a database field alone. It is why Slack is growing at a record rapid clip, just delivering its fastest quarterly Net New Annual Order Value (\u201cNNAOV\u201d) growth since acquisition as Slackbot users grew over 150% Q\/Q; and when Salesforce opened Slack up to outside AI agents, a million users plugged in within a month. Visionary founder\/CEO Marc Benioff\u2019s decision to spend $25 billion buying back his own stock in a single quarter earlier this year \u2014 the largest repurchase in company history, roughly a fifth of its market capitalization \u2013 is looking incredibly savvy for the largest repository of customer data on the planet.<\/p>\n

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The balance of power shifting to Salesforce, with Salesforce getting more pricing power, not less, is why leading frontier LLMs such as Anthropic are now rushing to strike partnerships with Salesforce, exemplified by the debut of \u201cClaudeforce,\u201d Salesforce and Anthropic\u2019s exciting new partnership allowing full integration of Claude within Salesforce, a win-win partnership which will increase usage of both platforms and push customers toward the highest-end premier subscription plans.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The bearish AI narrative here is also deceptively simple \u2013 and wrong.\u00a0 Earlier this year, some analysts presumed that if a traveler can ask a chatbot for a hotel or flight, who needs Booking.com? But time has shown just completely wrong those skeptics were, with Booking Holdings stock having now bounced back to near all-time highs, just as other OTA rivals such as Expedia have as well. The mistake these wrongheaded skeptics made was simple: they mistook Booking Holdings as a search engine when in reality, it is a differentiated travel transaction platform enjoying a strong competitive moat.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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The distinction that matters, and which is too often overlooked, is between the top of the travel funnel, where trips are discovered, and the bottom, where money changes hands and the trip actually planned and executed. Travelers are indeed turning to AI for recommendations, and that is genuinely ominous for metasearch and referral businesses whose entire function was comparison. It is not ominous, however, for the company that is merchant of record on roughly three-quarters of its bookings \u2014 a share up four points in the past year and still fast rising \u2014 settling more than 100 payment methods across 50 currencies and adjudicating the thorny disputes and complex last-minute cancellations that AI platforms have shown no appetite to touch.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Read more U.S. economy grows at sluggish 1.5% pace in second quarter<\/a><\/p>\n

Indeed, Google\u2019s own leadership declared that the company has \u201cno intention of becoming an OTA (online travel agency)\u201d and has zero interest in acting as merchant of record. OpenAI reached the same conclusion the hard way, retreating from in-chat checkout this spring after a badly botched rollout was widely panned.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Furthermore, contrary to popular perception, almost all of Booking.com\u2019s room nights come from independent properties and smaller hotels, to the tune of 90% of all bookings, rather than large hotel chains. These smaller properties would never be able to run global payment processing, multi-currency settlement, and dispute resolution even if they are somehow able to surface independently through AI searches. This is the critical gap that Booking\u2019s infrastructure fills, and why Bookings\u2019 hotel partners are so loyal and not going anywhere anytime soon. The importance of this structural advantage shielding against LLM disruption can be seen in how Airbnb\u2019s stock price is up 40% YTD, partly because its inventory of exclusive properties is seen as a strong moat against LLM disruption.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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However, those same bears, undeterred by their prior mistakes as the overwrought SaasPocalypse \u201cdeath\u201d narrative faded, have now pivoted towards believing that just like with Salesforce, Booking Holdings will have less pricing power moving forward, and will have to pay more for customer acquisition than it did before with less direct customer loyalty, compressing margins and hindering profitability. But this margin compression thesis is equally wrong, as accelerating AI changes will only increase the relative power of Booking Holdings in the marketplace and make its value proposition more singular and irreplaceable.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Simply put, Booking Holdings is well positioned to use AI to gain even more market share from its less tech-savvy competitors. With Booking Holdings\u2019 moat secure as the travel infrastructure provider of choice, there is every reason to think that AI will only drive greater traffic towards Bookings\u2019 unique platform in the years ahead, rather than less. We are still in the earliest stages of this pivot, as AI-driven traffic has been remarkably limited for OTAs thus far. On its August earnings call, Booking disclosed that traffic sourced from large language models remains well below 1% of room nights, with no material change over recent quarters, while direct traffic held steady in the mid-60% range and grew in absolute terms.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But in a future where AI drives an inevitably greater share of discovery, building on the lessons it has learned bidding for web browser search traffic for 20 years, Booking Holdings is the best positioned of its competitors to apply those lessons to bidding for preferential AI traffic and advertising \u2013 with the same tried-and-true machinery for converting a click from search traffic, regardless of whether from AI or from a search engine, into a direct, repeated, loyal Booking customer. That is the same exact singular playbook Booking has pioneered to perfection under the continued leadership of Booking\u2019s widely admired CEO, Glenn Fogel, who is seen as one of the best capital allocators of our era \u2013 all of which are unique advantages that position Bookings to be the biggest AI beneficiary of any of its competitors.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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IBM bears wrongly believed they\u2019d stumbled onto gold last month when IBM stock fell 25% in a single day, the worst in the company\u2019s history, as several large clients redirected capital budgets towards memory amidst a severe memory crunch. Although a third of those supposedly lost deals ended up closing within the next few weeks, and IBM CEO Arvind Krishna won widespread plaudits for his honest transparency.\u00a0 <\/p>\n

Nonetheless, a common misguided bearish narrative is that AI is poised to disrupt IBM\u2019s $21 billion consulting business as well as its hugely profitable legacy software business, on which runs the core systems of many banks, insurers, and airlines.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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But what some critics miss is that AI has actually been a boon for IBM\u2019s consulting business: AI now accounts for half of all new consulting signings and is one of the largest components of IBM\u2019s backlog \u2014 at far higher<\/em> margins than traditional consulting, thanks to IBM now being able to bill on the basis of outcomes and productivity rather than brute hours worked. And Red Hat, the software that enables a company\u2019s AI agents to run across any cloud and any platform, grew 11% as paradoxically, AI creates new needs for software powers continued revenue growth in the subscription software business.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Simply put, IBM is being paid to build the AI transition, not run over by it, which is why IBM\u2019s AI business has more than doubled over the last year.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Everybody \u2013 ourselves included \u2013 concedes that AI is disrupting legacy technology and software companies. But financial markets seem to be tossing out the baby with the bath water, looking past vital software companies which own things that AI agents cannot run without. The key question now, is whether a company still owns something that AI agents need, and where the power in the marketplace lies. And we believe that power is rapidly shifting back to software firms which just months ago were seen as the biggest losers but are now quickly transforming into the biggest winners from AI.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Salesforce owns the data that AI agents cannot operate without. Booking Holdings owns the travel platform that agents cannot execute travel bookings without. IBM owns the underlying technological infrastructure that AI agents run on. Every one of these is a differentiated moat, which is worth more in a world of AI, not less. These are just three particularly compelling examples of several prominent software companies poised to benefit from AI, with ServiceNow under the capable and experienced leadership of CEO Bill McDermott and Snowflake also standing out as core examples.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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As legendary Intel CEO Andy Grove famously quipped, \u201conly the paranoid survive.\u201d But paranoia and panic are very different, and amidst widespread panic across markets, commendable prudence has turned into reckless lack of discrimination in discerning AI winners and losers in the software space, with software bears missing the transformation taking place before our eyes as software firms turn into some of the biggest beneficiaries of AI.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of <\/em>Fortune.<\/em><\/p>\n

Read more Why Wall Street sees a $39,800 pancreatic cancer pill as proof of a much bigger bet<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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