{"id":790,"date":"2026-06-05T15:41:52","date_gmt":"2026-06-05T15:41:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=790"},"modified":"2026-06-05T15:41:52","modified_gmt":"2026-06-05T15:41:52","slug":"andurils-trae-stephens-says-defense-tech-is-headed-for-a-shakeout","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=790","title":{"rendered":"Anduril\u2019s Trae Stephens says defense tech is headed for a shakeout"},"content":{"rendered":"
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This ethos also happens to be how Stephens operates.<\/p>\n

The Anduril co-founder and executive chairman\u2014and Founders Fund partner\u2014became invested in foreign policy following 9\/11. He found his way into Georgetown\u2019s School of Foreign Service, joined a U.S. intelligence agency after graduation, watched the pitfalls of bureaucracy fail, and left. Stephens joined Palantir early, then Founders Fund, then spent three years looking for a defense tech company worth backing but couldn\u2019t find one. So in 2017, he built Anduril instead.<\/p>\n

Read more Fortune 500 Power Moves: Which executives gained and lost power (May 23-June 5, 2026)<\/a><\/p>\n

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That bet is now a defense behemoth: $2 billion-plus in 2025 revenue (up 110% year-over-year), a $20 billion Army counter-drone contract, a five-million-square-foot drone factory in Ohio, and a $5 billion Series H last month at a $61 billion valuation, doubling the company\u2019s worth in under a year.<\/p>\n

But, his view from the top of the defense sector isn\u2019t, it turns out, especially bullish. Virtually every mid-stage defense tech company, Stephens told me, trades at \u201c50, 100, 200x multiples\u201d while the underlying defense industry trades at 2 to 2.5x revenue. \u201cIt\u2019s completely disconnected from reality.\u201d Founders won\u2019t accept acquisition at a discount to their last round\u2014\u201dthere\u2019s too much ego\u201d\u2014so most will simply be driven into the ground. \u201cThat\u2019s not good long-term for the ecosystem.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

He\u2019s careful to credit the government for its part. \u201cThey have learned a lot in the last 10 years,\u201d he said\u2014pointing specifically to Other Transaction Authority agreements, which let the DoD bypass traditional procurement regulations to move faster with nontraditional contractors, and the Office of Strategic Capital, which is now seeking more than $20 billion in its FY2027 budget request.\u00a0<\/p>\n

His critique is that venture capital is pricing the defense opportunity as if there will be 20 Andurils. Defense tech equity funding hit $17.9 billion in 2025, more than doubling year-over-year, and 2026 is already on pace to shatter that. The problem isn\u2019t investment. It\u2019s pricing. \u201cThere will be a couple of new credible players,\u201d he said. \u201cThe rest is noise.\u201d<\/p>\n

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See you tomorrow,<\/p>\n

@LilyMaeLazarus
lily.lazarus@fortune.com
Submit a deal for the Term Sheet newsletter\u00a0here.<\/p>\n

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Joey Abrams curated the deals section of today\u2019s newsletter.<\/em> Subscribe here.<\/p>\n

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VENTURE CAPITAL<\/h3>\n

– <\/span>Ramp<\/b>, a New York City-based spend management and corporate card platform, raised $750 million in Series F funding. ICONIQ, GIC, and Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan led the round and were joined by Goldman Sachs Alternatives, D.E. Shaw & Co., Morgan Stanley Investment Management, and others.<\/span><\/p>\n

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– <\/span>Supabase<\/b>, a San Francisco-based open-source backend-as-a-service platform built on Postgres, raised $500 million in funding. <\/span>GIC<\/b> led the round and was joined by <\/span>Accel<\/b>, <\/span>Y Combinator<\/b>, <\/span>Craft<\/b>, <\/span>Felicis<\/b>, <\/span>Coatue<\/b>, and <\/span>Stripe<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\n

– <\/span>Helion<\/b> Energy<\/b>, an Everett, Wash.-based fusion energy developer, raised $465 million in Series G funding. <\/span>Thrive<\/b> Capital<\/b> led the round and was joined by <\/span>Alta<\/b> Park<\/b> Capital<\/b>, <\/span>Anti<\/b> Fund<\/b>, <\/span>BoxGroup<\/b>, and others.<\/span><\/p>\n

– <\/span>Generalist<\/b>, a San Mateo, Calif.-based developer of general-purpose AI for physical robotics, raised $400 million in funding. <\/span>Radical<\/b> Ventures<\/b> led the round and was joined by <\/span>8VC<\/b>, <\/span>Union<\/b> Square<\/b> Ventures<\/b>, <\/span>Hanabi Capital<\/b>, and angel investors.<\/span><\/p>\n

– <\/span>Ona Therapeutics<\/b>, a Barcelona, Spain-based biopharmaceutical company, raised $86.6 million in Series B funding. <\/span>Columbus<\/b> Venture<\/b> Partners<\/b> and <\/span>M\u00e9rieux<\/b> Equity<\/b> Partners<\/b> led the round.<\/span><\/p>\n

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– <\/span>InCharge<\/b> Energy<\/b>, a Los Angeles, Calif.-based EV charging infrastructure and fleet electrification solutions provider, raised $46 million in funding from <\/span>S2G<\/b> Investments<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Read more SAG-AFTRA approves a four-year contract with studios and streamers<\/a><\/p>\n

– <\/span>Honeycomb<\/b> Insurance<\/b>, a Chicago, Ill.-based commercial real estate insurer, raised $40 million in funding. <\/span>Zeev<\/b> Ventures<\/b> led the round and was joined by <\/span>Ibex<\/b> Investors<\/b> and others.<\/span><\/p>\n

– <\/span>Airspeed<\/b>, a London, U.K. and New York City-based AI platform designed to help revenue teams execute go-to-market workflows, raised $20 million in Series A funding. <\/span>DN<\/b> Capital<\/b> led the round and was joined by <\/span>Vi<\/b> Partners<\/b>, <\/span>Framework<\/b> Venture<\/b> Partners<\/b>, and <\/span>Atlassian<\/b> Ventures<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\n

– <\/span>Alitheon<\/b>, a Bellevue, Wash.-based developer of optical AI technology, raised $8 million in Series A1 funding. <\/span>Emerald<\/b> Technology<\/b> Ventures<\/b> led the round and was joined by <\/span>eBay<\/b> Ventures<\/b> and existing investors.<\/span><\/p>\n

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– <\/span>Kalogon<\/b>, a Melbourne, Fla.-based smart seating company, raised $5.8 million in funding. <\/span>Enable<\/b> Ventures<\/b> led the round and was joined by <\/span>Florida<\/b> Opportunity<\/b> Fund<\/b>, <\/span>Castellan<\/b> Group<\/b>, and existing investors.<\/span><\/p>\n

– <\/span>Intellectible<\/b>, an Austin, Texas-based AI platform designed for revenue operations, raised $3 million in seed funding. <\/span>Bread & Butter Ventures <\/b>led the round and was joined by <\/span>Vicorum<\/b> Capital<\/b>, <\/span>Gray<\/b> Ventures<\/b>, <\/span>Circadian<\/b> Ventures<\/b>, <\/span>Allied<\/b> VC<\/b>, <\/span>High<\/b> Street<\/b> Equity<\/b> Partners<\/b>, and others.<\/span><\/p>\n

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PRIVATE EQUITY<\/h3>\n

– <\/span>ATC<\/b>, backed by <\/span>AE<\/b> Industrial<\/b> Partners<\/b>, acquired <\/span>Aero<\/b> Controls<\/b>, an Auburn, Wash.-based provider of specialized, precision-engineered component MRO services. Financial terms were not disclosed.<\/span><\/p>\n

EXITS<\/h3>\n

– <\/span>Brand<\/b> Velocity<\/b> Group<\/b> acquired <\/span>RCX<\/b> Sports<\/b>, a Roswell, Ga.-based youth sports platform, from <\/span>Raine<\/b> Partners<\/b>. Financial terms were not disclosed.<\/span><\/p>\n

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– <\/span>Warren<\/b> Equity<\/b> Partners<\/b> acquired <\/span>USG<\/b> Water<\/b> Solutions<\/b>, an Atlanta, Ga.-based management and maintenance solutions company for water utilities, from <\/span>Turnspire<\/b> Capital<\/b> Partners<\/b>. Financial terms were not disclosed.<\/span><\/p>\n

IPOS<\/h3>\n

– <\/span>Parabilis<\/b> Medicines<\/b>, a Cambridge, Mass.-based clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, plans to raise up to $475 million in an offering of 25 million shares priced between $17 and $19 on the Nasdaq. ARCH Venture Fund, Cormorant, FMR, GV, Milky Way Investments, NExtech, RA Capital, and venBio back the company.<\/span><\/p>\n

– <\/span>Liftoff<\/b> Mobile<\/b>, a Redwood City, Calif.-based marketing and monetization platform for mobile businesses, raised $437 million in an offering of 19 million shares priced at $23 on the Nasdaq. <\/span><\/p>\n

PEOPLE<\/h3>\n

– <\/span>Congruent Ventures<\/b>, a San Francisco-based venture capital firm, promoted <\/span>Tanuj<\/b> Dutta<\/b> to General Partner.<\/span><\/p>\n

Read more \u2018Send it overboard\u2019: Federal judge just halted the longest red snapper season in years<\/a><\/p>\n

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<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Anduril co-founder warns that sky-high valuations, too much VC, and unrealistic expectations could drive much of the industry into collapse.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":789,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-790","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-term-sheet"],"yoast_head":"\nAnduril\u2019s Trae Stephens says defense tech is headed for a shakeout - Cross Country Moving Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/crosscountrymovingteams.com\/?p=790\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Anduril\u2019s Trae Stephens says defense tech is headed for a shakeout - 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