“We’re in a world where all the assumptions about international institutions, free trade, a rules-based order—that’s all going away,” said Dominic Barton, strategic counselor to Eurasia Group and chair of Australian mining giant Rio Tinto.
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Barton spoke with Fortune days after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods including autos, dairy, and alcohol. The president had also threatened tariffs in response to wildfire smoke drifting across the border. “Fifteen years ago, there would have probably been diplomats bringing this forward,” he said. “Now it’s just tweeted.”
(Just to show how changeable things are, on Aug. 19 Trump announced—on social media—that he will delay the new Canada tariffs by three days as the two countries near a deal).
Barton is a veteran McKinsey leader turned Canadian diplomat turned Rio Tinto chairman; that experience gives him a well-informed perspective on how executives need to think about geopolitical scenarios. “There’s a lot more risk, but there’s also a lot more upside,” he said. “You can whine about it—’I hope it’ll go back to the way it was.’ I just don’t think it will.”
Barton argued that many companies still treat geopolitical risk as something on the side, rather than a core part of the business.
“You have to move away from the after-dinner speaker. You’d get a former politician or someone at a board to give a talk at dinner and say, ‘let me tell you about my experience,’” he said. “That’s kind of over.”
Barton spent decades at McKinsey, eventually leading its Asia business as the firm expanded across China and the region. He then moved into government when then-Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appointed him ambassador to China in 2019—a posting that put him at the center of the “Two Michaels” crisis, in which Beijing detained two Canadian citizens on espionage allegations widely seen as retaliation for Canada’s arrest of Huawei chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou at Washington’s request.
China released the “Two Michaels”—Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor—in 2021, after the U.S. agreed to defer prosecution of Meng.
“CEOs are going to have to spend more time with governments, and in government relations, than they ever have before,” he said. He pointed to Temasek chief executive Dilhan Pillay Sandrasegara, former Apple CEO Tim Cook, and Tesla’s Elon Musk as leaders who have built that muscle—spending real time trying to understand how foreign governments think.
More broadly, Barton argued that geopolitics needs to be deeply embedded in how companies think through their operations. “What’s your balance sheet look like? How much debt do you want to have? Are you able to withstand periods when you may have problems with customers, or with supply chain security? Where is your data going to be managed? Where do you incorporate yourself? You can’t just do it anywhere anymore,” Barton said.
In addition to his work with Eurasia Group, Barton also chairs Rio Tinto. Mining has always been a politically fraught business, as governments often claim ownership of natural resources. Miners, for their part, need to balance earning profits with minizing political blowbakc.
Barton declined to discuss Rio Tinto in significant detail, citing the company’s July 29 earnings release. Rio Tinto has since reported a 43% jump in underlying earnings over the first half of the year, citing higher copper and aluminum prices amid growing demand tied to data centers.
He did, however, discuss one way Rio Tinto’s operations are now changing in response to one global change: The rise of China as a technological powerhouse. “China’s a competitor, but it’s also a humongous source of IP now,” Barton said. “For Rio Tinto, the amount of purchasing we’re doing from China has gone up significantly. It’s more expensive than some of the traditional Western suppliers. But it’s better. It lasts longer. It doesn’t break down.”
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